Russia and Ukraine

[Leonardo17]

Russia is definitely not winning (They didn’t really win anything since they started the war 3 years ago) but Ukrainians are still dying and their soldiers are really tired. So no matter what happens Putin is still a butcher and a person that has to be stopped.

   There are going to be some talks tomorrow. The UK has left the EUropean Union. France has a government crisis and there will be elections in Germany. But we will see if Europeans can create some sort of united front (with the leadership of Poland) against the US. It’s not that anything Trump said is really going to happen, but there might be a window of opportunity here with the US getting the parties to a cease fire, then European troops moving into Ukraine as peacekeepers (of course with US troops having their back from a distance in case things go ugly).

   But if I am reading this right Trump want to withdraw some 20,000 troops from Europe too.

   Also: Most NATO members will not spend 5% of their budget on their military. For most countries it will be more like 3/3,5 %. That’s still not bad and many see it as something that needed to happen.

   Also: Trump is trying to rebalance the trade deficit of the US. His supporters say that they are promoting a system with more balanced trade relations between different countries. That’s not all-bad either.

    So I am not expecting an Afghanistan-like disaster in Ukraine but things are still shifting and that doesn’t have to be all negative. The only reason why this might not work would be Putin himself. Putin clearly does not want peace. But will he settle to something he can sell to his propaganda machine as some sort of victory? – We simply don’t know.

    Another important issue is that Donald Trump has greater chances of handling this situation than Mr. Joe Biden or even Kamala Harris

[The Grand Nudger]

I suspect that if putin believed he could simply declare a victory he'd have done so. Trump isn't trying to balance anything. He's a crook looking for bribes and grift.

[arewethereyet]

Trump The Unbalanced isn't trying to balance a damn thing.

In fact, he is sitting in his diaper watching Melon Husk do what he wants while Mini-Melon wipes snot on his desk and tells him to sit down and shut up.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Another important issue is that Donald Trump has greater chances of handling this situation than Mr. Joe Biden or even Kamala Harris

There's a big difference between handling the situation and handling the situation well. Abject concession to Putin's objectives may present peace for the moment, but without the cooperation of the Ukrainians it won't last. And without them at the table, they won't accede.

Granting aggressors concessions only leads to more aggression. This is a big lesson of history.

[The Grand Nudger]

It's highly unlikely that US concessions to putins objectives would even bring peace for the moment. Russia needs someone to bring their military in to contain ukriane for that, and it's unlikely they could be peacefully contained.

[Thumpalumpacus]

It's highly unlikely that US concessions to putins objectives would even bring peace for the moment.  Russia needs someone to bring their military in to contain ukriane for that, and it's unlikely they could be peacefully contained.

Even if this "deal" snags headlines, there will certainly be an insurgency.

[Ivan Denisovich]

Russia is definitely not winning (They didn’t really win anything since they started the war 3 years ago) but Ukrainians are still dying and their soldiers are really tired. So no matter what happens Putin is still a butcher and a person that has to be stopped.

   There are going to be some talks tomorrow. The UK has left the EUropean Union. France has a government crisis and there will be elections in Germany. But we will see if Europeans can create some sort of united front (with the leadership of Poland) against the US. It’s not that anything Trump said is really going to happen, but there might be a window of opportunity here with the US getting the parties to a cease fire, then European troops moving into Ukraine as peacekeepers (of course with US troops having their back from a distance in case things go ugly).

   But if I am reading this right Trump want to withdraw some 20,000 troops from Europe too.

   Also: Most NATO members will not spend 5% of their budget on their military. For most countries it will be more like 3/3,5 %. That’s still not bad and many see it as something that needed to happen.

   Also: Trump is trying to rebalance the trade deficit of the US. His supporters say that they are promoting a system with more balanced trade relations between different countries. That’s not all-bad either.

    So I am not expecting an Afghanistan-like disaster in Ukraine but things are still shifting and that doesn’t have to be all negative. The only reason why this might not work would be Putin himself. Putin clearly does not want peace. But will he settle to something he can sell to his propaganda machine as some sort of victory? – We simply don’t know.

    Another important issue is that Donald Trump has greater chances of handling this situation than Mr. Joe Biden or even Kamala Harris

United front against USA with Poland as it leader? Dog almighty Lenin rising from mausoleum and building communism is far more likely than US most obedient vassal ever leading "rebellion" against its master. Nothing more than letter from some US clown was needed for Poland to say that it will ignore ICJ verdict and pm is asking some billionaire for help in ruling in clownish copy of musk and trump.

Only chance trump have is chance to fellate putler as it does not look like like he will demand putler to get the fuck out of Ukraine.

[Deesse23]

Anyone who thinks ukraine is going to surrender based on pieces of paper from moscow and washington has screws loose.  They know our deals aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  That's how the war started in the first place.

Of course they won't, and more power to 'em.

One thing the appeasers here in America seem to ignore is that eleven months after Chamberlain, Daladier, Mussolini, and Hitler locked Czechoslovakia out of negotiations over its own dismemberment, bringing "peace in our time", WWII kicked off in earnest. This abject surrender to Russian aims will only increase Russian -- and Chinese -- appetites.

This!
Exactly this!

And it is a mere single lifetime ago *facepalm*

[Deesse23]

   Also: Most NATO members will not spend 5% of their budget on their military. For most countries it will be more like 3/3,5 %. That’s still not bad and many see it as something that needed to happen.

That would be 22bn€ for Germany. Most EU countries will not WANT that.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated on February 10 that Russia lost 1,400 main battle tanks (roughly four tank divisions' worth) and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs) — totaling 5,100 lost tanks and armored vehicles in 2024.[6] Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed over 3,000 Russian tanks and almost 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024, and IISS' estimates likely only account for destroyed tanks and armored vehicles.[7] IISS assessed in February 2024 that Russia would be able to sustain its then-rate of vehicle losses (over 3,000 tanks, APCs, and IFVs annually as of 2023) until February 2026 or 2027 by refurbishing vehicles from Soviet-era storage facilities.[8] It remains unclear if the Russian military command will remain willing or able to sustain this increased rate of armored vehicle losses in 2025, as Russian forces appear to be adapting their tactics to limit such losses.

[...]

It remains unclear if Russia can repair and newly-produce a sufficient number of tanks and armored vehicles to replace losses in Ukraine and equip new Russian units. IISS assessed that Russia refurbished and built over 1,500 tanks and 2,800 IFVs and APCs in 2024 — suggesting that Russia produced enough vehicles to replace all of its tank losses and three quarters of its armored vehicle losses last year.[12] IISS assessed that Russia's ongoing effort to expand the Russian military and create new units is exacerbating equipment shortages and noted that Russia may also be suffering from a shortage of spare parts to refurbish tanks and armored vehicles. IISS assessed that it is highly likely that the Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles remaining in Russia's stores are in a deteriorated condition, which may complicate Russia's ability to offset high equipment losses in 2025 and beyond. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on February 8 that Russia is continuing to form new divisions, and former Russian Defense Minister and Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu announced in January 2023 that Russia aimed to stand up 14 new military divisions in the coming years.[13] The Russian military command appears to be balancing allocating refurbished and newly-produced vehicles between new formations and formations that have been fighting on the frontline for several years. Russia may struggle to adequately equip its units with materiel in the long-term if the Russian military continues to burn through Soviet-era vehicle stocks without significantly increasing Russia's ability to produce new tanks and armored vehicles.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates