Russia and Ukraine

[Belacqua]

@Thumpalumpacus

Yesterday you made it clear that we disagree on this topic.

Let's watch and see how the war goes over the next six months or so and then we'll know which sources' analyses were correct.

[Ivan Denisovich]

Things are really simple here - russia is a rogue state (and one hilariously incompetent considering how long ago war was supposed to end) guilty of starting war (and it's not its first one) and threat to Europe in general and Eastern Europe in particular. Thus money spent to keep it bleeding itself are money well spent. I also would argue that Europe need send more weapons and ammunition as every russian killed is a russian that will not be in any other potential battlefield, nor will he help with rebuilding if it ever comes to that.

This is all in keeping with what I've read elsewhere: that this is largely a proxy war for the purpose of weakening Russia.

No. That is trying to save what can be saved from both unjustified and unjustifiable aggression of wannabe empire in its death throes.

[Deesse23]

"Elsewhere"
Thats of course a much more reliable source than those media controlled by rich and evil people, who make me believe what they want me to believe.

"Elsewhere" is probably the same source that suggested holding an election in a country being invaded and constantly under attack. An election that could not possibly be fair nor free. But what do you know about free or fair elections, being a russian asset?

"Elsewhere" is probably right where you are pulling all your other bs from.

[Thumpalumpacus]

@Thumpalumpacus

Yesterday you made it clear that we disagree on this topic.

Let's watch and see how the war goes over the next six months or so and then we'll know which sources' analyses were correct.

I want to see your "source". You either have one or you don't. An honest interlocutor would present sources upon request.

That is lens through which I view your refusal to link your source. It follows that I consider you dishonest. Feel free to demonstrate otherwise -- if you can.

Makes me wonder if your "source" isn't actually Grok.

[Paleophyte]

This is all in keeping with what I've read elsewhere: that this is largely a proxy war for the purpose of weakening Russia.

Yeah, the West viciously tricked Russia into attacking Ukraine because it desperately needed it to be even more collapsed than it already was. Where is "elsewhere"? So far you've cited a chatterbot that was programmed to suck off Elon Musk as hard as it possibly could and Trump's incompetent security stooge. Are you a tone-deaf imbecile or do you simply play one on TV?

[The Grand Nudger]

Just six more months...as opposed to the last couple years of russian inevitably and impending ukranian doom?   Russo-Ukranian War 2014-Present.  Putin remains a master strategist.

Meanwhile, in ukraine, another 1100 russians rolled snake eyes today as the price of urals crude dips well below breakeven. The war budget depends on 69.7USD, cost is 40-44usd, current price is 35-36usd. China is throwing out the life preserver with a massive purchase in reserve gold. The bill stands somewhere in the vicinity of a quarter bil a day. It could be as high as half a bil a day, but that assumes russia pays it's soldiers..which we know, from russian soldiers and their survivors, it does not. As a cost cutting strategy it's working out well. Assault unit troops have a lifespan measured in hours, so you don't have to delay their pay very long before they're dead and not complaining. It is, ofc, illegal to say this in russia.

It's worth pointing out that the russian fed is not the soviet union. They do not have the technological prowess, the money, the productivity, or the raw demographics. The russian fed has never fought a war of attrition - so they cannot have any track record at winning them, nor have they ever faced a peer or near peer opponent. It is still not fighting one now. It is and has long been in russias best interest to retreat now, rebuild, address the issues the russo ukranian conflict has surfaced, and violate their treaty agreements at whatever later date is more convenient for them.

[Belacqua]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct. Finland of course has to pay close attention to what Russia is doing, so it's possible that he has better access to intelligence than anyone posting on this forum.

Here is what Gabbard said, again:

Deep State warmongers and their Propaganda Media are again trying to undermine President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine—and indeed Europe—by falsely claiming that the ‘U.S. intelligence community’ agrees to and supports EU/NATO viewpoint that Russia’s aim is to invade/conquer Europe (in order to gin up support for their pro-war policies). The truth is that ‘US intelligence’ assesses that Russia does not even have the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine, what to speak of ‘invading and occupying’ Europe.

Of course he might be wrong.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, said that 80% of new recruits to the Ukrainian military desert from training centers, due to a lack of confidence in their leadership. The Times of London newspaper corroborates this figure.

Someone in his position is likely to have better knowledge of what's happening in Ukraine's security, defense, and intelligence areas than anyone posting on this forum.

Of course he might be wrong.

[The Grand Nudger]

A good heuristic for knowing when you're fucking up, even if you don't know anything else about anything else, is the phrase "tulsi gabbard is right".

It's a fine line they're trying to tow, there, though.... isn't it. Instead of ukrainian defeat being inevitable, ukranian defeat is impossible....and the real problem is how the whole thing inconveniences the patient in cheif. Pick a lane Bel, pick a lane.

[The Grand Nudger]

Meanwhile....in russia, the trial of Jacque Tilly will begin on christmas eve, for the crime of insulting the russian army.  In absentia, ofc, as Mr Tilly is a german sculptor who makes parade floats as a hobby.  Asked for comment, he replied-

"Humor apparently still hurts"

There are over 10k such cases working their way through whatever counts for court in russia.

[Fake Messiah]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct.

You are spreading misinformation again because he said both are right in question of the audience. So. Yeah Russia is preparing for more war that's why Finnland and whole EU is preparing for defense.

80% of new recruits to the Ukrainian military desert from training centers

The number is actually 100%. Yet even with 100% desertion rates in Ukrainian army, Vlad's army can't beat them because Vlad is that pathetic.