Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct. Finland of course has to pay close attention to what Russia is doing, so it's possible that he has better access to intelligence than anyone posting on this forum.

Here is what Gabbard said, again:

Deep State warmongers and their Propaganda Media are again trying to undermine President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine—and indeed Europe—by falsely claiming that the ‘U.S. intelligence community’ agrees to and supports EU/NATO viewpoint that Russia’s aim is to invade/conquer Europe (in order to gin up support for their pro-war policies). The truth is that ‘US intelligence’ assesses that Russia does not even have the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine, what to speak of ‘invading and occupying’ Europe.

Of course he might be wrong.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, said that 80% of new recruits to the Ukrainian military desert from training centers, due to a lack of confidence in their leadership. The Times of London newspaper corroborates this figure.

Someone in his position is likely to have better knowledge of what's happening in Ukraine's security, defense, and intelligence areas than anyone posting on this forum.

Of course he might be wrong.

Please quote the Finnish president, and source his statements. Also, a source on the 80% desertion rate amongst Ukrainian recruits. Links for both sources so that we can read them in context. I don't trust you to be an honest commentator.

[The Valkyrie]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct. Finland of course has to pay close attention to what Russia is doing, so it's possible that he has better access to intelligence than anyone posting on this forum.

Here is what Gabbard said, again:

Deep State warmongers and their Propaganda Media are again trying to undermine President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine—and indeed Europe—by falsely claiming that the ‘U.S. intelligence community’ agrees to and supports EU/NATO viewpoint that Russia’s aim is to invade/conquer Europe (in order to gin up support for their pro-war policies). The truth is that ‘US intelligence’ assesses that Russia does not even have the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine, what to speak of ‘invading and occupying’ Europe.

Of course he might be wrong.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, said that 80% of new recruits to the Ukrainian military desert from training centers, due to a lack of confidence in their leadership. The Times of London newspaper corroborates this figure.

Someone in his position is likely to have better knowledge of what's happening in Ukraine's security, defense, and intelligence areas than anyone posting on this forum.

Of course he might be wrong.

"Deep state".

That's all you need to read from that tweet to know that it's utter bullshit.

[Mr Greene]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct. Finland of course has to pay close attention to what Russia is doing, so it's possible that he has better access to intelligence than anyone posting on this forum.

Here is what Gabbard said, again:

Deep State warmongers and their Propaganda Media are again trying to undermine President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine—and indeed Europe—by falsely claiming that the ‘U.S. intelligence community’ agrees to and supports EU/NATO viewpoint that Russia’s aim is to invade/conquer Europe (in order to gin up support for their pro-war policies). The truth is that ‘US intelligence’ assesses that Russia does not even have the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine, what to speak of ‘invading and occupying’ Europe.

Of course he might be wrong.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, said that 80% of new recruits to the Ukrainian military desert from training centers, due to a lack of confidence in their leadership. The Times of London newspaper corroborates this figure.

Someone in his position is likely to have better knowledge of what's happening in Ukraine's security, defense, and intelligence areas than anyone posting on this forum.

Of course he might be wrong.

Here is The Times please indicate the article where this 80% desertion figure is stated.

[Paleophyte]

The president of Finland said in an interview today that Tulsi Gabbard's statements yesterday, in a tweet and in a speech, were correct. Finland of course has to pay close attention to what Russia is doing, so it's possible that he has better access to intelligence than anyone posting on this forum.

Here is what Gabbard said, again:

Deep State warmongers and their Propaganda Media are again trying to undermine President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine—and indeed Europe—by falsely claiming that the ‘U.S. intelligence community’ agrees to and supports EU/NATO viewpoint that Russia’s aim is to invade/conquer Europe (in order to gin up support for their pro-war policies). The truth is that ‘US intelligence’ assesses that Russia does not even have the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine, what to speak of ‘invading and occupying’ Europe.

Of course he might be wrong.

Or you might just be grossly misrepresenting what was said. Let's check that, shall we?

"I agree with Tulsi Gabbard's assessment that the NATO resolve is so high that there's no interest for Russia to attack and take Finland as an example."
- President Alexander Stubb

So yes, he agreed with the assessment that Russia won't be able to take Europe. Nothing about the Deep State warmongers or Propaganda Media (seriously dude, capitalizing it just makes you look like you're too feeble to go ALL CAPS like your insane boss). Nothing about Trump or the very bad, horrible, no good Liberals who keep oppressing the poor man.

What it does seem to indicate is that US Military Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and the president of Finland all seem to agree that Russia isn't capable of taking Ukraine. Remind me again why we ought to hand it to them on a gilded platter?

[The Grand Nudger]

The operational assumptions russia was working on, and which is broadly respective of their general assumption - is that the invaded party would not fight back and no one would help them. In that context, it hardly matters whether russia would be militarily capable of successfully invading and occupying x y or z country. Only whether or not they think they could get away with the attempt long enough to declare those regions russia forever, in furtherance of creating a larger grey zone, that they fully intend to then tie up in international courts and politics.

The question is not so much why the world ought to let such an inept military draw new maps - because hybrid war doesn't require a competent military or the nuts and bolts ability to conquer another nation by direct force. The question is what makes anyone think that a regime so inclined to the detriment of it's own current citizens could be held or deemed to be credibly responsible for the administration and welfare of newly subjugated ones. If ukraine falls, and it's always been a possibility regardless of russian incompetence, that will create a new wave of refugees that russia intends to use as ammo against the next nation putins revanchist fantasies settle on, to soften the ground before they frog march whatever remaining ukranians there are into battle against their neighbors. Ask the chechens.

[Thumpalumpacus]

A top aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday contradicted U.S. claims that three days of peace talks in Miami went well, calling several of Washington's proposals meant to end Russia's war with Ukraine "rather unconstructive."

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top foreign policy aide, said most of the peace plan proposals the U.S. offered were put forward by Ukraine and Europe and would not suit Russia, Kremlin state news agency TASS reported.

That assessment came after special envoy Steve Witkoff said Sunday that he, along with President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and White House senior adviser Josh Gruenbaum, "held productive and constructive meetings" with Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev to advance the Trump administration's peace plan for Ukraine.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/56599...us-claims/


Tell me again how committed the Russians are to peace ...

[Belacqua]

Here is The Times please indicate the article where this 80% desertion figure is stated.

https://archive.md/ZuSLK

[The Grand Nudger]

They rejected the peace proposal they themselves had written and attempted to launder through us. In fact Ukraine accepted all twelve proposals made to them this year. Russia accepted none.

It’s putins war, he’s the only one who doesn’t want it to end.

[Fake Messiah]

Financial Times reports how Russian generals regularly lie to Putin and have thus convinced him that he will soon win the war. This is the main reason why he is rejecting favorable terms proposed by Trump and refusing to sign a peace deal.

How upbeat battlefield briefings are fuelling Putin’s confidence

Colonel-General Sergei Kuzovlev, a large, grey-haired man in his late 50s, told Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in late November that his troops had “completed the liberation of Kupiansk”, a small but strategically important town in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

Putin later awarded him the Gold Star medal, Russia’s highest military honour.

Yet just three days after the ceremony, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video of himself standing in front of a boundary marker at the entrance to Kupiansk. “I went to Kupiansk myself to show the world that Putin is lying,” he said. Independent assessments say Russia has not fully controlled the town since early 2022.

The competing claims over Kupiansk, coupled with Putin’s visible confidence in Russia’s battlefield prospects, have once again raised questions about whether the country’s top brass are massaging facts to tell the president what he wants to hear.

Putin has pressed on with the war effort despite seemingly favourable peace terms offered by Donald Trump — a decision that western officials believe has been influenced by the flawed information reaching the Kremlin.

Russia’s military and security services give Putin regular updates that inflate Ukraine’s casualty numbers, stress the country’s resource advantages, and play down tactical failures, two officials said.

Though Putin also regularly meets with confidants who explain to him how the war has become a growing drag on Moscow’s sputtering economy, the rosy picture painted in the military briefings has nonetheless led him to believe he can win the war outright, they added.

JD Vance alluded to that dynamic in October, when the US vice-president spoke of “a fundamental misalignment of expectations [ . . .] where the Russians tend to think that they’re doing better on the battlefield than they actually are”. Vance said that had made a deal harder to reach.

Still, Russia’s disinformation campaign has reached external audiences, doing a “very good job” of convincing “most people around Trump that it is winning swiftly”, said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House.

The main figure tasked with briefing Putin about the war is Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff and the invasion’s lead commander.

Gerasimov, egged on by reports that Ukraine would not resist, presided over Russia’s initial blitzkrieg on Kyiv in 2022 — a disastrous failure that ended in a humiliating retreat a month later.

As the war dragged on, he and then-defence minister Sergei Shoigu became the target of ire from hardline war supporters who accused them of shielding Putin from reality and relying on “meat grinder” tactics that drove high casualties.

The most telling case was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine itself, which Putin hoped would be over within days but has instead dragged on for nearly four years.

In August 2024, Gerasimov told Putin that Russia had halted Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, even as Ukrainian troops had already seized parts of the territory — triggering chaotic evacuations that cost some civilians their lives.

It now also helps explain why Russia continues to press ahead at enormous cost instead of pocketing the gains offered through ceasefire settlements, Giles added.

Putin appeared to address public anger by replacing Shoigu as defence minister in 2024, which preceded a sweeping purge of top military figures in corruption cases.

While Putin’s reliance on flawed information has long plagued Russia’s military operations, few cases have sparked as much fury among war supporters as Kupiansk, prompting an unusual wave of criticism from Russia’s military Z-bloggers on Telegram.

“It’s simply laughable how we are trying to counter yet another video of Zelenskyy standing by the Kupiansk marker with our own clips,” wrote Starshe Eddy, a popular blogger. Rybar, one of the most prominent of Z-bloggers, has sarcastically referred to the city as “Schrödinger’s Kupiansk”. He rebuked exaggerating frontline successes, saying the price of such “territories taken on credit” was soldiers’ lives.

But Putin appears to have concluded those lives are a price worth paying for his goals in Ukraine, Massicot said.

https://www.ft.com/content/06e0b154-1f15...6fd715f766

[Thumpalumpacus]

The problem with disinformation is when you start believing your own -- or when your subordinates start practicing it on you.