Who will realistically win the 2012 presidential election?

[goddamnit]

Intrade got the Supreme Court ruling on Patient Protection Affordability and Care wrong, so it might not be the best indicator for predicting an election. We all have our preferences about who we want to win, lose, not run at all, etc. It can be tough, but please try your best to set aside personal preferences and just guess what will realistically will happen. Who is more likely to win out of Obama and Romney?

[downbeatplumb]

Romney.coz there is no limit to how stupid Americans can be.

[Paul the Human]

Obama, because close elections almost always go to the incumbent.

[Anomalocaris]

Obama. Because Romney can’t make real inroads into Obama’s base, and doesn’t have the dedication of his own base, so he has to rely on apathy of Obama’s base.

Now that Obamacare has survived, Gay marriage has been supported, and some delicate foot work has put Obama ahead on the immigration issue, Obama’s base won’t desert him, So Romney is now glued to a losing script without any means to break free from it.

[Tiberius]

Obama.

[5thHorseman]

Obama.

Romney doesn't even have a reasonable economic plan. The Ryan plan has been found out, and is total nonsense. His pandering to the social authoritarians during the GOP race also isolates him from independents.

Funny thing is, Romney isn't as bad as he tells people he is, but that's the game you have to play to win over the extreme right in the GOP.

[Minimalist]

Obama because Romney is not going to get any better.

[Justtristo]

I have to say Romney although it will be a quite narrow victory. States like Colorado, Nevada and maybe New Mexico will go Romney because of the large numbers of Mormons there.

[Napoléon]

Wait, wait, wait...

You mean to tell me, that people actually take that Romney guy seriously?

Oh yeah, this is America we're talking about

[Epimethean]

Obama. Romney has alienated the Latin vote as his most recent error, and it's a potentially costly error to make.