5 times we almost nuked ourselves by accident

[Anomalocaris]

For the moment the peril is more in relatively isolated use of a few nuclear weapons, not in the civilization shattering volley of all out nuclear war. But in the long run, I think proliforation not just of rogue nations with a few bombs, but of full spectrum nuclear powers with complete nuclear capabilities, is simply unstoppable as unipolar world order wanes and rising powers like Brazil and India attempts to assert their position as new poles in a multiploar world. The bigger nations with a bigger nation's resources will want more than a few bombs. They will want their own nuclear submarines, reconnosaice and targeting satellite, diversified nuclear delivery platforms capable of surviving a first strike to launch a crippling retaliatory second strike.

Instead of balance of power and mutural assured destruction between 2 monster power as in the cold war, there will be a complex system of 8 or more medium sized, but technologically fully capable, nuclear powers (US, Russia, France, China, UK, Israel, India, Brazil, and later probably Argentina as well) watching each other, with tension stocked by smaller rogue elements with a few bombs.

Mutural assured destruction will not work.