I care.
538 Gave Trump the highest chance of winning (@33% at the time of the election). The chances of a Brexit were similar, Ithink closer to 40%.
They say she has nowhere near the odds Trump or Brexit did, and her chances of winning are very, very, very low. And shrinking. The longer Trump is in office, the worse Le Pen has done.
I've heard some say a large terror attack might change that, but the recent shooting didn't even give her a bump. I think she's got all the support she's going to get. They came close in this first round, but that was 4 candidates going against each other. In head to head polls, Macron is 26 points ahead of Le Pen. That's nothing like the close polling that existed with Brexit or Trump/Clinton. The recent "upsets" have all been within the statistical margins of error that they know exist, so are not actually statistical upsets. If the trend holds, at the worst, Macron would win by 21%-ish.
538 Gave Trump the highest chance of winning (@33% at the time of the election). The chances of a Brexit were similar, Ithink closer to 40%.
They say she has nowhere near the odds Trump or Brexit did, and her chances of winning are very, very, very low. And shrinking. The longer Trump is in office, the worse Le Pen has done.
I've heard some say a large terror attack might change that, but the recent shooting didn't even give her a bump. I think she's got all the support she's going to get. They came close in this first round, but that was 4 candidates going against each other. In head to head polls, Macron is 26 points ahead of Le Pen. That's nothing like the close polling that existed with Brexit or Trump/Clinton. The recent "upsets" have all been within the statistical margins of error that they know exist, so are not actually statistical upsets. If the trend holds, at the worst, Macron would win by 21%-ish.
“Eternity is a terrible thought. I mean, where's it going to end?”
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
