(August 9, 2017 at 10:58 am)Rev. Rye Wrote:(August 9, 2017 at 10:54 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: Make light of his motives all you want, the real calculus is simple to the extreme: For Kim there is no life without nuclear weapon.
He will certainly chose to use his nuclear weapons if it is use it or lose it, or if he is in grave danger of being deposed.
Don't think he will use it if his regime is not threatened despite his own bluster, don't think he won't use it if his regime is gravely threatened, regardless of blood curdling threat of consequences from the idiot trump.
You know, given that the US has been stockpiling nuclear weapons for over 70 years and haven't actually used them since August 9, 1945 (72 years ago today, by an extraordinary coincidence), I don't think there will likely be much of a "use it or lose it" situation.
The use it or Lose it applies to Kim. He could certainly face the possibility of losing it in the following manner:
1. Extreme pressure from outside sufficient to crumble his regime trying to force him to give it up
2. Commando raids trying to take it from him
3. redemptive air or missile raids trying to blow his up
4. His country is invaded and the invader is trying to take it from him
5. His own people turn on him and threaten to take the control of the weapons from him
6. His rule falters and he is in danger of not being able to control his weapons
When these situation arise and his loss of control over his weapons seems imminent, I have no doubt he will use all his nuclear weapons.
