I like to merge the solar eclipse thread with this one and bring everyone some good news.
If we have an all out nuclear war, we can all enjoy a total eclipse for about 3-5 years while all our vegetation dies off.

I think the idea that N. Korea will use nukes on South Korea or Japan is pretty unlikely. The actual warfare would be conventional artillery fire. N. Korea can rain down so many goddamned shells that Seoul will be set back about 10 years.

They will be surprisingly resourceful, I think. Internet hacks, control of American banks or nuclear facilities, chemical agent attacks, and all kinds of tricky stuff is possible.

(August 9, 2017 at 12:39 am)Rev. Rye Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:19 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: And they know this.

Furthermore, they don't need nukes at all to destroy Seoul. They'll save a couple for Seoul just in case the artillery doesn't get 'er done, but their nukes will be flying to Pusan, Tokyo, and Guam, I think. Interdict the resupply, discombobulate a major adversary, and try to catch some heavy bombers on the ground.

And are we sure they even have the resources to reach Pusan? Because we seem to be taking for granted that a nation that can't even be arsed to feed their own people, even if it means a good-sized portion will be too undernourished to even be fit enough for military service, actually has comparable resources to the US long-distance-warfare-wise.

We do. With their recent tests it's been shown that NK can fire rockets a minimum of 5,000km. And latest intelligence shows that they're on the verge of having nukes small enough to put on an ICBM if they haven't already.

It's official guys. The nukes are going off on Oct 13 2017.
The 100 year anniversary of you guessed it ...The miracle at Fatima!

Why do religious people have this fetish about the world blowing up? It's like they want it to?

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/myst...spartandhp

Quote:A mystic who claims to have accurately foretold Donald Trump's presidency has predicted the exact date World War 3 will start.
Self-proclaimed 'messenger of God' Horacio Villegas believes nuclear war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation of Our Lady of Fatima.
With the USA and North Korea engaged in a nuclear war of words, amid threats of 'preventative war' and a missile attack on Guam, the fears of a new global conflict are more prescient than ever.
The clairvoyant claims to have envisioned Trump would win the US election as far back as 2015, according to the Daily Star.
He reportedly predicted the billionaire businessman would become the “illuminati king” who will “ bring the world into WW3 ”.
As World War III fears rise, see inside stunning £11m nuclear bunker you could live in during fallout

Chillingly, one of his prophecies appears to have already come true.
Villegas warned the US leader would attack Syria, which took place earlier this year when Trump launched a huge air strike on an airbase in Homs.
He also predicted that it would bring Russia, North Korea and China into the deadly global conflict - something which, if the prophecy is to be believed, is still possible.
It is claimed that Our Lady – another name for the Virgin Mary, mother of Jesus – visited Fatima in Portugal on six different occasions.
The first visitation was said to have taken place on May 13, 1917.

© Provided by Trinity Mirror Plc Credits: AFP
This was the day, according to the Catholic faith, that Our Lady warned people that if her requests to convert Russia to the faith were not followed, God would use the country to wreak havoc on the world.
Villegas is convinced war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation - in less than four weeks' time.
The last visitation is said to have occurred later that year, on October 13, 1917, where she s believed to have announced: "The war is going to end, and the soldiers will soon return to their homes."

(August 9, 2017 at 7:00 am)ignoramus Wrote: It's official guys. The nukes are going off on Oct 13 2017.
The 100 year anniversary of you guessed it ...The miracle at Fatima!

Why do religious people have this fetish about the world blowing up? It's like they want it to?

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/myst...spartandhp

Quote:A mystic who claims to have accurately foretold Donald Trump's presidency has predicted the exact date World War 3 will start.
Self-proclaimed 'messenger of God' Horacio Villegas believes nuclear war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation of Our Lady of Fatima.
With the USA and North Korea engaged in a nuclear war of words, amid threats of 'preventative war' and a missile attack on Guam, the fears of a new global conflict are more prescient than ever.
The clairvoyant claims to have envisioned Trump would win the US election as far back as 2015, according to the Daily Star.
He reportedly predicted the billionaire businessman would become the “illuminati king” who will “ bring the world into WW3 ”.
As World War III fears rise, see inside stunning £11m nuclear bunker you could live in during fallout

Chillingly, one of his prophecies appears to have already come true.
Villegas warned the US leader would attack Syria, which took place earlier this year when Trump launched a huge air strike on an airbase in Homs.
He also predicted that it would bring Russia, North Korea and China into the deadly global conflict - something which, if the prophecy is to be believed, is still possible.
It is claimed that Our Lady – another name for the Virgin Mary, mother of Jesus – visited Fatima in Portugal on six different occasions.
The first visitation was said to have taken place on May 13, 1917.

© Provided by Trinity Mirror Plc Credits: AFP
This was the day, according to the Catholic faith, that Our Lady warned people that if her requests to convert Russia to the faith were not followed, God would use the country to wreak havoc on the world.
Villegas is convinced war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation - in less than four weeks' time.
The last visitation is said to have occurred later that year, on October 13, 1917, where she s believed to have announced: "The war is going to end, and the soldiers will soon return to their homes."

Because people fall for crazy bullshit that guy is just probably a con artist. I mean its been a little over half a year since Trump was in office and we haven't gotten nuked or nuked anyone yet. I say were not going to get nuked or nuke anyone at all.

The problem here are the following:

1. North Korea has an unknown but likely non-trivial number of nuclear warheads.

2. North Korea is likely not far from being able to put such warheads on missiles.  They may already be able to do so for some shorter range missiles, we don't know.

3. Kim and his family have murdered far too many people for it to be remotely plausible that any of them would die peacefully in their beds after they were deposed.  They don't want to be hunted and slaughtered like dogs, so they will never give up under any circumstances the only garranty for their own safety, which is their absolute rule over the military and security apparatus of their state.  

4. American propaganda has villanized the Kim regime for too long such that if there was a military action  and America fail to depose Kim, it would seem to domestic audience like an outright military defeat for America.  American defeat at the door step of the only serious rival superpower china, and right under the eyes of the two really stellar success stories of 70 years of American hegemony in the west pacific - South Korea and Japan, is likely to presage the end of American influence in the region. So if there is a war in Korea and Kim is not deposed, then whoever is the president will be toast in the next election.

5. American also could not credibly offer Kim safety to induce them to leave peacefully to achieve our aims, both for reason number 4, and because of Obama/clinton's principled but moronic decision not to protect the life of another despot, kadafi of Libya.

6. Hence any American military action must go all out and depose Kim, and thus present a mortal threat to Kim regime, and mortal threat to Kim rule is precisely the only time Kim will likely use, and the one time he will certainly use, his nuclear weapons.

7. China is unlikely to step in and depose Kim for the US. CHina has no wish to be on the receiving end of Kim's nuclear weapons either.

from this we can conclude:

1. Kim will be of absolutely no threat, at least to America, if there is no imminent sign of American military action, despite any bluster.

2. Kim will absolutely use every last nuclear weapons he has got, if he is certain a military action against him is imminent.

The way I see it, the most likely conclusion is this: he's unlikely to actually use his nukes (due to the inevitable consequences, and partly due to other material concerns), but the Kims have put so much into their military that they can't afford to not rattle their sabers at any given opportunity.

(August 9, 2017 at 7:00 am)ignoramus Wrote: It's official guys. The nukes are going off on Oct 13 2017.
The 100 year anniversary of you guessed it ...The miracle at Fatima!

Why do religious people have this fetish about the world blowing up? It's like they want it to?

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/myst...spartandhp

Quote:A mystic who claims to have accurately foretold Donald Trump's presidency has predicted the exact date World War 3 will start.
Self-proclaimed 'messenger of God' Horacio Villegas believes nuclear war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation of Our Lady of Fatima.
With the USA and North Korea engaged in a nuclear war of words, amid threats of 'preventative war' and a missile attack on Guam, the fears of a new global conflict are more prescient than ever.
The clairvoyant claims to have envisioned Trump would win the US election as far back as 2015, according to the Daily Star.
He reportedly predicted the billionaire businessman would become the “illuminati king” who will “ bring the world into WW3 ”.
As World War III fears rise, see inside stunning £11m nuclear bunker you could live in during fallout

Chillingly, one of his prophecies appears to have already come true.
Villegas warned the US leader would attack Syria, which took place earlier this year when Trump launched a huge air strike on an airbase in Homs.
He also predicted that it would bring Russia, North Korea and China into the deadly global conflict - something which, if the prophecy is to be believed, is still possible.
It is claimed that Our Lady – another name for the Virgin Mary, mother of Jesus – visited Fatima in Portugal on six different occasions.
The first visitation was said to have taken place on May 13, 1917.

© Provided by Trinity Mirror Plc Credits: AFP
This was the day, according to the Catholic faith, that Our Lady warned people that if her requests to convert Russia to the faith were not followed, God would use the country to wreak havoc on the world.
Villegas is convinced war will break out on the 100th anniversary of the visitation - in less than four weeks' time.
The last visitation is said to have occurred later that year, on October 13, 1917, where she s believed to have announced: "The war is going to end, and the soldiers will soon return to their homes."

Don't get Catholic Lady started!

Just remember, the so-called "Miracle of the Sun" did not begin on time, whether local solar or local civil.  It was around 12:20 local solar time that Lucia started throwing a fit and turned to the Sun screaming, "Look at the Sun, look at the Sun..."  She was a complete fraud, like all the other so-called Catholic "mystics".  Around 35 or so of these wackos are alive at any one time.

It's a "selection effect" with respect to the so-called "prophecy".  If the person gets lucky (or, sort of lucky, as was the case with Pat Robertson), then, "It's a miracle!"; otherwise, everyone forgets about it.

(August 9, 2017 at 10:33 am)Rev. Rye Wrote: The way I see it, the most likely conclusion is this: he's unlikely to actually use his nukes (due to the inevitable consequences, and partly due to other material concerns), but the Kims have put so much into their military that they can't afford to not rattle their sabers at any given opportunity.

Make light of his motives all you want, the real calculus is simple to the extreme: For Kim there is no life without nuclear weapon.

He will certainly chose to use his nuclear weapons if it is use it or lose it, or if he is in grave danger of being deposed.

Don't think he will use it if his regime is not threatened despite his own bluster, don't think he won't use it if his regime is gravely threatened, regardless of blood curdling threat of consequences from the idiot trump.

(August 9, 2017 at 10:54 am)Anomalocaris Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 10:33 am)Rev. Rye Wrote: The way I see it, the most likely conclusion is this: he's unlikely to actually use his nukes (due to the inevitable consequences, and partly due to other material concerns), but the Kims have put so much into their military that they can't afford to not rattle their sabers at any given opportunity.

Make light of his motives all you want, the real calculus is simple to the extreme: For Kim there is no life without nuclear weapon.

He will certainly chose to use his nuclear weapons if it is use it or lose it, or if he is in grave danger of being deposed.

Don't think he will use it if his regime is not threatened despite his own bluster, don't think he won't use it if his regime is gravely threatened, regardless of blood curdling threat of consequences from the idiot trump.

You know, given that the US has been stockpiling nuclear weapons for over 70 years and haven't actually used them since August 9, 1945 (72 years ago today, by an extraordinary coincidence), I don't think there will likely be much of a "use it or lose it" situation.