RE: Trump's Base is Possibly Growing
February 25, 2019 at 10:24 am
(This post was last modified: February 25, 2019 at 10:29 am by The Grand Nudger.)
Good, glad we've got that settled and everyone knows about the cuban contribution to the latino vote as a demographic inversion to national averages in a swing state with significant republican outreach going back decades.
I think that the best d's can hope for is that the r's focus on the wrong states...which is pretty much any and every state aside from florida. Their messaging appeals to a known demographic subset of latinos. Nativist latinos, latinos with core republican values, and..yes, white adjacent latinos like floridian cubans. Playing that in california, for example, will be a flop because their demographic subsets are directly inverse to those that the message has been shown to appeal to - and even more importantly, how that appeal manifests itself as votes rather than people finding some reason to think that the president is doing something well.
The worst, is that the r's campaign is exactly as successful as the data would suggest, focused on those demographic subsets..and by extension a swing state. R's are playing the electoral college game, they can't win the pop anymore. Motivating nativists to the polls for maximum political impact is kindof their bread and butter.
I think that the best d's can hope for is that the r's focus on the wrong states...which is pretty much any and every state aside from florida. Their messaging appeals to a known demographic subset of latinos. Nativist latinos, latinos with core republican values, and..yes, white adjacent latinos like floridian cubans. Playing that in california, for example, will be a flop because their demographic subsets are directly inverse to those that the message has been shown to appeal to - and even more importantly, how that appeal manifests itself as votes rather than people finding some reason to think that the president is doing something well.
The worst, is that the r's campaign is exactly as successful as the data would suggest, focused on those demographic subsets..and by extension a swing state. R's are playing the electoral college game, they can't win the pop anymore. Motivating nativists to the polls for maximum political impact is kindof their bread and butter.
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