RE: Malaysian airlines plane shot down over Ukraine
July 19, 2014 at 2:40 pm
(This post was last modified: July 19, 2014 at 2:48 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(July 19, 2014 at 2:20 pm)Moros Synackaon Wrote:(July 18, 2014 at 9:14 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: I'm surprised that they'd route an airliner over an active civil war, which is what the situation there is essentially. Setting aside for the moment any possible threat from either combatant side, the fact that you'd be severely limiting your options in the event of an in-flight emergency make this a case of extremely bad judgement, it seems to me.
The Ukrainians never assumed at the rebels would never get their hands upon a modern, powerful anti-aircraft missile.
Why they thought that when the Russians have already been providing the rebels with weapons is beyond me.
The missile system in question is big, cumbersome, intended to protect large areas against high altitude aircraft and missile threats. Basically it is a national defense asset, not a tactical battlefield asset.
It is the least useful type of surface to air missile for the purposes of an armed insurgency. Insurgencies would need lighter, agile, concealable, portable air defense system that is good at repositioning itself on demand and adept at shooting down tactical fighters and armed helicopters operating at low to medium altitudes.
This is why one would not expect the Russians to provide the rebels with this type of missile. It would be like US providing Syrian rebels with ballistic missile defense. Not only would it be overkill, it also can't kill the right kind of things.
I think all lines of evidence points to insurgents got their hands on a system by capturing one from an unguarded or poorly guarded Ukrainian army depot. They didn't really know how to use it properly, and certainly didn't know how to operate the identification friend foe mechanisms in the missile system. They also probably didn't think through what type of air threat is most dangerous to them, and what type of air targets would mostly likely bring horrible repercussions back upon them. They almost certainly had no idea there is a heavily traveled international civil aviation corridor right over their heads. So they fired up missile at the first bogey they were able to get the radar to track.
