Do we expect too much from human reason?

[The Grand Nudger]

But assuming we know enough about the big picture to say unequivocally what is and isn't possible? Probably an over reach.

what is and isn't possible based on everything we know of the subject, and what would only be possible if a significant portion (or the entirety) of our knowledge on the subject was wrong from the floor up. For example. It is impossible for there to be, or ever have been - werewolves.

That doesn't mean I should throw out my preference for natural over supernatural answers. But what really can I say to another human being that should persuade them to adopt the same bias? Probably no more than they can offer as to why it is I should join them in acknowledging a god. Both are biases but I like to think all useful advances have depended on people who shared my outlook.

When discussing knowledge, a bias towards knowledge and adequate means of generating knowledge is a boon, not a hindrance. No one has ever "faithed" any knowledge into existence, because faith lacks the ability to do so, as well as any reliability in that regard when someone feels as though it might.

But in the end there just isn't any reason I can offer to a theist why naturalism is better. Hell, most of them accept naturalism everyday. They just like to think there's a magic genie holding the natural order together.

Ital mine...I think you answered your own question there. Whenever there's a disagreement there's a point at which two parties must come together on -something- or no progress can be made. It may be that both parties are in the wrong, but it always proceeds from

-if- we agree that.....

Long story short "why should x prefer naturalism over "goddidit" -because they already do, and they would not grant special pleading arguments themselves. They've agreed both to agree on the one hand (naturalism), and disagree along with you on the other (the value of special pleading). You're not actually providing them any reason to prefer naturalism (and good luck if you had to...crazies gotta crazy), you're helping them to understand that there is no disagreement, only an internal disconnect. It's not even a discussion of naturalism vs the supernatural..whats going on is decidedly less nebulous than gods or spirits.