Why the religious will never admit you won the argument (and why they don't care)

[The Grand Nudger]

Do you think that the strongest indicators of what religion a person will have in their childhood are different than their analogs with regards to adult conversions?

In the us, a kid is likely to be the religion of his parents - predominantly christian. In adulthood, in the us, people are most likely to convert to what religion?

[madog]

? you have posted figures that support my proposition .... 85% are born into Christian homes and 15% try to fit in with their community ...

What are the rate of Christian Conversions in a non Christian country?

How can you say "15% try to fit in with their community"? You have just ascribed a reason to a person's conversion that you have no way of knowing. 
 

It was shorthand .... some could take up a religion to get into a preferred school, some because their minority religion makes them a target, so they continue with a more acceptable woo for their environment ... on and on ....

But using a deeply Christian nation and conversions to the main woo of that nation is a cop out  You can't use that nation as an unbiased experiment that would lead to empirical evidence ...

No we can't do an experiment with children totally shielded from all the Woo in the world and see how many would then believe in woo or any particular woo, but we can see that raising kids shielded from one woo and indoctrinating them with a different  woo will usually lead them rejecting that woo and believing in the woo they were indoctrinated with ....

It boils down to the likely hood of anything shouldn't be decided by the indoctrinated or at least those that still hold on to that indoctrination ... as we know the likely hood that they will believe in their indoctrination is high.

So again figures for a non Christian community or nation?

[SteveII]

I think you have overstated #5, but I can see why you would think that.

I think you forgot a pretty big one, actually the biggest one...People believe the truth claims of the religion. Since you are obviously talking about Christianity, that would mean that one would believe the contents of the NT are true. This actually supports your thesis that people don't believe in Christianity because of natural theology arguments. However it brings up another problem to add to your list of problems:

1. Your list dealt with emotional/psychological reasons and as such are easily dismissed. Now with the NT thing, you will have to deal with a belief in real people and real events. 
2. I am curious why you think Christianity in particular needs an adherent to "ignore the intellectual defeat"? 
3. Your belief that Christians use "faith to insulate these core values against intellectual scrutiny" is quite a bold statement. What scrutiny can you bring to the table that I cannot go and find 500 books on written over the last 2000 years? You seem to operating under the mistaken assumption that you can bring up objections that cannot be answered. 
4. You also seem to be positing faith as a product of evolution and..."in the end, the truth will win out.". Your message is not getting out. There are more Christians in the world every day than there were the day before.

Thanks for your reply

Firstly I would concede that of the underlying emotional reasons for people holding their beliefs, 5 is probably the least common. 

I agree that on the face of it, most people do in fact believe much of their religious teachings - be it the Bible or Koran etc or other teachings through their religious community. The fact that they can believe these teachings, many of which are to a greater or lesser extend obviously untrue [1] , is down to a number of factors. Number one, they have probably never really questioned their beliefs. Number two - they don't have a good understanding of critical thinking, the scientific method, logical reasoning and empiricism. They probably have a very narrow view of science. [2] And number three, they are fed misinformation about science by their religion. Also, number four would be that there is a lot of social taboo against questioning the faith, with the threats against apostates etc. 

However, once a person like that gets into a discussion with a well informed atheist who can point out the logical fallacies in their arguments and ask them questions they had never considered before, once their religious world view comes under fired and they start to come to ways of thinking in which their belief system breaks down, [3] it is the emotional reasons I listed that prevent them from accepting the information being presented and expanding their world view. For example, if I'm talking to someone who was brought up without any understanding of how life on earth came about [4], and I started telling them about how we have discovered evolution, they might be amazed - but if they've been brought up as a creationist, they will have been conditioned to actively resist the ideas. And it's because these new ideas threaten their identity and community etc. 

Yes, there are more Christians in the world than ever before, but the fasted growing group is those who have no belief,[5] and with the rise in popularity of people like Hitchens and Harris and Dawkins, the Atheist Experience, events like Skepticon and the Reason Rally etc I have some reason to hope for a more enlightened future. 

When I'm talking about Christians 'ignoring intellectual defeat' the first thing that comes to mind is that it is far less common to find a religious debate with a Muslim than it is with a Christian. There seems to be a difference in the tone of the conversation with Muslims who are inherently far more resistant to and defensive against any form of criticism of their religion. With Christians the conversation has been going on for centuries, so there is a more established discourse around apologetics. 

As for the ignoring part... as I have said, I haven't seen a debate or discussion on the topic of religion where the religious advocate/apologist was able to successfully make their case and have it stand. And I find it frustrating because I can see the majority of my species are being held hostage by these regressive, backward traditions that are responsible for so much of the suffering and disharmony happening in the world today, and it's all due to failures in thinking, to ignorance, and often willful ignorance.[6]

You certainly are painting with a broad brush. 
1. What is obviously untrue about the NT?
2. I have an excellent understanding of critical thinking and a very good understanding of the scientific method, logic and reasoning. Are this things supposed to prevent my belief in God? What is a "very narrow view of science"? 
3. Are you a well-informed atheist? There really aren't logical fallacies in those arguments you are talking about. The only one's who think there are logical fallacies are atheists that keep telling each other that. Most of these arguments are centuries old and philosophers would have dismissed them long ago if that were the case. 
4. Do you know how life on earth came about? I wasn't aware that anyone knew.
5. You mistake "nones" for those without a belief. Those are people who do not identify with an organized religion but very much believe in something. You should be looking for population stats on atheists. They are are still struggling.
6. Opinion that is only even remotely true if you through in muslim terrorism. Painting with a broad brush again. 
It would be nice if you could give concrete examples why you don't think I am correct instead of remaining vague and generalizing almost everything.

[SteveII]

Do you think that the strongest indicators of what religion a person will have in their childhood are different than their analogs with regards to adult conversions?

In the us, a kid is likely to be the religion of his parents - predominantly christian.  In adulthood, in the us, people are most likely to convert to what religion?

That might be a point to consider if it was not for the fact that in almost every country on earth, Christianity is the religion adults convert to--regardless of the population makeup.

[The Grand Nudger]

Well funded outreach, see: indoctrination... has an effect. How representative is your sample...and can we see it? That would help...wouldn't it?

[ApeNotKillApe]

Common cold is the one true disease, I back this up with the fact that so many people catch it.

[SteveII]

How can you say "15% try to fit in with their community"? You have just ascribed a reason to a person's conversion that you have no way of knowing. 
 

It was shorthand .... some could take up a religion to get into a preferred school, some because their minority religion makes them a target, so they continue with a more acceptable woo for their environment ... on and on ....

But using a deeply Christian nation and conversions to the main woo of that nation is a cop out  You can't use that nation as an unbiased experiment that would lead to empirical evidence ...

No we can't do an experiment with children totally shielded from all the Woo in the world and see how many would then believe in woo or any particular woo, but we can see that raising kids shielded from one woo and indoctrinating them with a different  woo will usually lead them rejecting that woo and believing in the woo they were indoctrinated with ....

It boils down to the likely hood of anything shouldn't be decided by the indoctrinated or at least those that still hold on to that indoctrination ... as we know the likely hood that they will believe in their indoctrination is high.

So again figures for a non Christian community or nation?

The answer I gave Rhythm applies again: That might be a point to consider if it was not for the fact that in almost every country on earth, Christianity is the religion adults convert to--regardless of the population makeup.

From the wiki article in my previous response. I will bold the pertinent points. How many of these communities were dominated by Christians?

• According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, approximately 2.7 million converting to Christianity annually from another religion, World Christian Encyclopedia also cited that Christianity rank at first place in net gains through religious conversion.[9]
  
  
• Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history.[10] Conversion into Christianity have also been well documented, and reports estimate that hundreds of thousands of Muslims convert to Christianity annually, significant numbers of Muslims converts to Christianity can be found in Afghanistan, Albania,[11] Azerbaijan,[12][13] Algeria,[14] Belgium,[15] Bulgaria,[16][17] France,[18] Germany,[19] Indonesia,[20]Iran,[21][22][23][24] Kazakhstan,[25] Kyrgyzstan,[26] Malaysia,[27] Morocco,[28][29] Netherlands,[30] Russia,[31] Saudi Arabia,[32] Tunisia,[33] Turkey,[34][35][36][37] Kosovo,[38] TheUnited States[39] and Central Asia etc.[40][41] Many of the Muslims who converts to Christianity faces social rejection or imprisonment and sometimes murder or penalty, for becoming Christians.[42]
  
  
• Data from the Pew Research Center that as of 2013, about 1.6 million adult American Jews identify themselves as Christians, most are Protestant.[43][44][45] According to same data most of the Jews who identify themselves as some sort of Christian (1.6 million) were raised as Jews or are Jews by ancestry.[44] Data from 2013, show that 64,000 Argentine Jews identify themselves as Christians.[46] According to 2012 study 17% of Jews in Russia identify themselves as Christians.[47][48]
  
  
• Due to conversion, the number of Chinese Christians has increased significantly; from 4 million before 1949 to 67 million in 2010.[53][54]
  
  
• Due to conversion, Christianity has grown in South Korea, from 2.0% in 1945[55] to 29.3% in 2010.[53]
  

[The Grand Nudger]

So, let's recap.

We're no longer discussing the majority of religious believers, only a minority demographic.  Within that minority demographic we're only discussing a century in which christianity has enjoyed global religio-poliotical dominance...and in that we are, in the main...comparing conversions between three branches of the abrahamic faith.

That about right?

[SteveII]

Well funded outreach, see: indoctrination... has an effect.  How representative is your sample...and can we see it?  That would help...wouldn't it?

Perhaps. But I'll go with the more obvious answer: people find the message of Christianity more compelling than x religion or none at all. See, your premise seems to be that people are stupid so lets find the real reason.

[SteveII]

So, let's recap.

We're no longer discussing the majority of religious believers, only a minority demographic.  Within that minority demographic we're only discussing a century in which christianity has enjoyed global religio-poliotical dominance...and in that we are, in the main...comparing conversions between three branches of the abrahamic faith.

That about right?

This part of the thread was in response to Maddog wondering "It would be interesting to see how many Christians  would still be Christians if no child was indoctrinated through out childhood"

Do you have access to population statics earlier? If you do, we could discuss.

Which asian culture mentioned would have been a branch of the abrahamic faith? You like to cherry pick don't you?