Trumps base is starting to erode.

[Jehanne]

If the economy goes down the tubes, things will only get worse for The Donald:

Trump's Base May Be Starting to Erode Slightly

Four new polls suggest that Donald Trump's base is beginning to show some cracks. A Pew Research Center survey shows Trump's approval at 37%, near the lowest it has ever shown. Even more important, among non-college whites, 50% approve of Trump's performance and 48% don't. That's a net swing of -15 points compared to a year ago.

CNN's poll found Trump's approval among non-college whites at 45%, down 9 points since early December. Quinnipiac University's poll found Trump's approval among those voters slipping from +19 to +10, a 9-point drop.

Then there is the Marist poll. 57% of the respondents said they would definitely vote against Trump in 2020 while only 30% would definitely vote for him. Among non-college whites, 42% said they would vote for him but 44% said they would vote for someone new.

Polls go up and down, but there are three major things to keep an eye on. First, the longer the shutdown goes on, the more it hurts Trump. Second, the economy and stock market are doing fine at the moment, although there are signs of instability. If they go south, it will be a disaster for Trump. Third, Trump's team is still negotiating with China. What happens if China decides it prefers to wait for 2 years rather than make any permanent concessions of consequence? Any or all of things could shake things up quickly. (V)

Electoral-vote.com -- Trump's Base May be Starting to Erode Slightly

[Yonadav]

Significant inroads into Trump's base have been made by people who actually sit down and talk with them. You were told that in the discussion that you started, in which you claimed that it was a waste of time to try to reason with Trump supporters.

The disaster that it will be if the economy goes south is vapid-speak. It is a disaster for any president when the economy goes south. Ironically, the exact same people who refuse to organize and engage in consumer strikes to earn working class people a seat at the table for negotiating economic policy and to bring down abusive presidents like Trump, are also the people who keep hoping for an economic downturn that will make Trump look bad. They won't participate in an organized and controlled dampening of the economy for constructive purposes, but they will hope for a chaotic economic disaster that will make someone they don't like look bad.

The confrontation with China is not going well for China. The confrontation with China is the only issue that Trump has any bipartisan support on. If you think that the confrontation with China is going to end with a new president, you are probably going to be disappointed. It makes sense that we would be in a confrontation with China because of our enormous trade deficit with them, their currency manipulation, their disregard for intellectual property rights, illegal dumping, their human rights abuses such as using political prisoners as living organ banks and the use of slave labor, their environmental abuses, and they have been actively engaged in the largest military buildup since the eve of WWII. The biggest problem with Trump leading the confrontation with China is that we can't trust what his objective is, and he might end it too soon and claim it as 'so much winning'. We'll lose if he does that.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Significant inroads into Trump's base have been made by people who actually sit down and talk with them. You were told that in the discussion that you started, in which you claimed that it was a waste of time to try to reason with Trump supporters.

Please be more careful in your attributions.  Jehanne didn't start that discussion. Jehanne didn't even participate in that discussion.

Boru

[Brian37]

Significant inroads into Trump's base have been made by people who actually sit down and talk with them.  You were told that in the discussion that you started, in which you claimed that it was a waste of time to try to reason with Trump supporters.

The disaster that it will be if the economy goes south is vapid-speak. It is a disaster for any president when the economy goes south.  Ironically, the exact same people who refuse to organize and engage in consumer strikes to earn working class people a seat at the table for negotiating economic policy and to bring down abusive presidents like Trump, are also the people who keep hoping for an economic downturn that will make Trump look bad. They won't participate in an organized and controlled dampening of the economy for constructive purposes, but they will hope for a chaotic economic disaster that will make someone they don't like look bad.

The confrontation with China is not going well for China. The confrontation with China is the only issue that Trump has any bipartisan support on. If you think that the confrontation with China is going to end with a new president, you are probably going to be disappointed. It makes sense that we would be in a confrontation with China because of our enormous trade deficit with them, their currency manipulation, their disregard for intellectual property rights, illegal dumping, their human rights abuses such as using political prisoners as living organ banks and the use of slave labor, their environmental abuses, and they have been actively engaged in the largest military buildup since the eve of WWII.  The biggest problem with Trump leading the confrontation with China is that we can't trust what his objective is, and he might end it too soon and claim it as 'so much winning'. We'll lose if he does that.

The problem is that he end's it too soon? Are you crazy?

No none of what he is doing or how he is doing anything is pragmatic or a good tactic in the slightest. He is simply doing what the GOP has done since Reagan. Create a needless problem then offer yourself up for a problem you caused.

There was no need to start the trade war at all. That is not how you re negotiate anything. Just like his claiming that caravans are like an invading army with weapons. It is all garbage.

I don't care if it is not going well with China, it is still hurting America. Trump has no damned clue of the damage he is doing. He has no damned clue how global diplomacy works.

[Yonadav]

Significant inroads into Trump's base have been made by people who actually sit down and talk with them. You were told that in the discussion that you started, in which you claimed that it was a waste of time to try to reason with Trump supporters.

Please be more careful in your attributions.  Jehanne didn't start that discussion. Jehanne didn't even participate in that discussion.

Boru

Oops! You are correct. I was thinking that it was Jehanne who started that discussion, and I should have checked. Thanks for fact-checking me and correcting mistake. I'll accept liar, liar, pants on fire for this one.

Jehanne, I apologize for my mistake.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Please be more careful in your attributions.  Jehanne didn't start that discussion. Jehanne didn't even participate in that discussion.

Boru

Oops! You are correct. I was thinking that it was Jehanne who started that discussion, and I should have checked. Thanks for fact-checking me and correcting mistake. I'll accept liar, liar, pants on fire for this one.

Jehanne, I apologize for my mistake.

No worries, just a friendly heads up.

Boru

[Jehanne]

The confrontation with China is not going well for China.

That's not what I have read; in fact, the Chinese appear to be weathering things just fine, buying and selling from elsewhere.

[Yonadav]

The confrontation with China is not going well for China.

That's not what I have read; in fact, the Chinese appear to be weathering things just fine, buying and selling from elsewhere.

I don't know where you read that, but the Chinese economy contracted in December and January.  The Chinese have made overtures with the Trump administration about increasing their purchases of American products to the tune of one trillion dollars that would wipe out the trade deficit over the next several years. The deal is widely regarded as too good to be true, and the Chinese are not really trusted to honor such an agreement.

[Jehanne]

That's not what I have read; in fact, the Chinese appear to be weathering things just fine, buying and selling from elsewhere.

I don't know where you read that, but the Chinese economy contracted in December and January.  The Chinese have made overtures with the Trump administration about increasing their purchases of American products to the tune of one trillion dollars that would wipe out the trade deficit over the next several years. The deal is widely regarded as too good to be true, and the Chinese are not really trusted to honor such an agreement.

Their economy is growing, just not as fast as it once did:

China's economic growth slowest since 1990 amid trade war with US 

Still, is their President in danger of not being reelected?  And, how about Trump's base:

US farms are going bankrupt at an alarming rate.

[Yonadav]

I don't know where you read that, but the Chinese economy contracted in December and January.  The Chinese have made overtures with the Trump administration about increasing their purchases of American products to the tune of one trillion dollars that would wipe out the trade deficit over the next several years. The deal is widely regarded as too good to be true, and the Chinese are not really trusted to honor such an agreement.

Their economy is growing, just not as fast as it once did:

China's economic growth slowest since 1990 amid trade war with US 

Still, is their President in danger of not being reelected?  And, how about Trump's base:

US farms are going bankrupt at an alarming rate.

The link that you provided for China's economic growth doesn't work. Comparing to 1990 is a bit weird. That is well before China's entry into the WTO and is at a time when ninety percent of the Chinese subsisted on two dollars a day or less. Regardless, information about the contraction of China's economy in December and January abounds.

It is difficult to discuss the farmers, because American farmers are always used as a political sacred cow.  They are the human shields that are used by Big Business every time Big Business doesn't get to dictate foreign policy. It is hard to fight any kind of a war without casualties, and farmers are always the first casualties in a trade war. But that doesn't mean that we have to have an endless policy of appeasement in a terribly unequal trade arrangement with a party that engages in unethical business practices, human rights abuses, and environmental abuses. It is our fault that we have allowed such an unequal trade arrangement for so long and have made the farmers dependent on it.  We have been subsidizing the farmers, and one of the big problems with the government shutdown is that farmers are maybe not going to get their subsidies in time to help them. At the end of the day, farmers are a tiny percentage of our population, and we can't have our entire economy held hostage to their interests. Farmers have been real troopers so far. Most of them know that we can't have our whole economy held hostage to their interests. They knew that a trade confrontation with China would eventually be necessary. They knew it was going to hurt.