Russia and Ukraine

[Jehanne]

The United States lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan, due to the United States making the logical decision to abandon both wars.  Likewise, Russia abandoned their efforts in Afghanistan.  I do not see them doing the same in Ukraine.

The US didn’t lose those wars because they abandoned them. They abandoned them because they lost (‘troop withdrawal’ plays better with the base than ‘got out collective arse handed to us’).

Likewise, Russia has already lost the Ukraine war, by any metric that matters.

Boru

We could have won in Vietnam and in Afghanistan. The results would have been absolutely horrific. As with King George III, we abandoned both wars because we realized that the majorities of people living in both countries did not support us and/or our objectives, and, so, we decided to abandon both wars.

In Eastern Ukraine wide support exists for Russia and has for many years. Those who do not support Russia have fled and are living elsewhere.

[The Grand Nudger]

No, it doesn’t, and hasn’t. What did once exist has been spent by the occupation.

Describing the displacement front of a slow rolling occupation as support is a bit iffy from the outset.

[Jehanne]

Oh, I agree; the Russians have engaged in some "cleansing" operations. But, why are the Ukrainians trying to ferret out the "traitors" in those areas that they have newly reconquered??

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Oh, I agree; the Russians have engaged in some "cleansing" operations.  But, why are the Ukrainians trying to ferret out the "traitors" in those areas that they have newly reconquered??

Why would they not?

Boru

[Jackalope]

And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?

I don't believe they are going to be properly trained or supplied, even by Russian standards.

My prediction is they're just more meat for the grinder.

I don't see it ending in Putin's favor.

[Jehanne]

Oh, I agree; the Russians have engaged in some "cleansing" operations.  But, why are the Ukrainians trying to ferret out the "traitors" in those areas that they have newly reconquered??

Why would they not?

Boru

Begs the question as to why some folks are supporting Russia.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Begs the question as to why some folks are supporting Russia.

You will always have loonies 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It also makes sense when you realize that if we're living in the upside down where russian -can- win..it's still costly for them.  Turns out, for example, that ukraines casualty trackers aren;t far off the mark - according to death benefits publicly announced by russia.

That's why Russia will win; they will pay whatever price in men and/or materials that it will take.  Putin is in no hurry.  The last I heard is that Ukraine is beginning to suffer heavy causalities; of course, they want more weapons.

It took the Afghans -- much less well-prepared, equipped, and organized -- eight years to send the Soviets packing.

Even if Russia's army wins a decisive military victory on the field, and Ukraine surrenders, there will still be an insurgency that the Russians will have to walk away from unless they want to break their own country.

I disagree with the premise that the Russians will win no matter what Ukraine or the West does. The scanty supports you've given thus far for that premise are unconvincing to me. The Russians have just seen their A-team hustled off the battlefield by a force which can very quickly move fast and cope with rapidly changing battle conditions. Russian industry is hamstrung by sanctions; Russians troops do not seem to have any confidence in their mission, and thus have lower morale.

War is not just about numbers. There are several intangibles (leadership, morale, motivation, training to name some) that are very difficult to quantify but can be decisive. The Ukrainians seem to have the edge in many of these. There are also many tangible but still hard-to-understand factors like types of weapons used, planning at the operational level, and how weather will affect ops. The Russians strike me as deficient in many of these tangible factors, too.

So I don't really buy into the "Russians can keep it up as long as they want."

[Thumpalumpacus]

And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?

I don't believe they are going to be properly trained or supplied, even by Russian standards.  

My prediction is they're just more meat for the grinder.

I don't see it ending in Putin's favor.

I cannot avow the accuracy of the article so I won't link it here, but I read earlier today that some conscripts have been sent straight to the front. I've seen footage of the weapons they're being issued, rusty assault-rifles and so on.

Those kids are in for hell, and I feel sorry for them. They will come back mentally and/or physically broken, being thrown into the fire like that.

[Thumpalumpacus]

After Russia gets weakened by losing in Ukraine, will it result in separatist unrest in some parts of the Russian Federation?

Probably in some, especially when one considers how the Russians have disproportionately deployed ethnic minorities to this war.