Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

Also, I found this odd bit of news this morning. I call it "odd" considering that the appeaser above quoted an Israeli official as complaining that NATO torpedoed the earlier peace talks. Israel seems to have had something of a change of heart.

Israel recently approved the export licenses for the possible sale of anti-drone jamming systems that could help Ukraine counter Iranian drones used by Russia during the war, three Israeli and Ukrainian officials said.

Why it matters: It's the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago that Israel has approved defense export licenses for possible weapons sales to Ukraine.

Israel has been careful not to give military assistance to Ukraine, fearing such a move could create tension with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.

Driving the news: After Russia started using Iranian-made attack drones during the war, the Ukrainian government increased its pressure for Israeli military assistance.

Ukrainian officials have claimed that providing weapons systems to Ukraine is in Israel's best interest because Iran is able to gain information about how the drones perform and then make improvements.

Iran has acknowledged it delivered some drones to Russia before the war started, but denies doing so after the invasion began. Russia denies using Iranian-made drones during the war, despite growing evidence to the contrary.

Behind the scenes: The approval of the export licenses by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Foreign Minister Eli Cohen came in mid-February as Israel was conducting a Netanyahu-ordered review of its policy toward the war, the Israeli and Ukrainian officials said. That review has been completed but no new decisions have been made, according to Israeli officials.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/israel-...russia-war

[Fake Messiah]

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin of Russia for war crimes. The court said that Putin bore individual criminal responsibility for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/...-for-putin

[Rev. Rye]

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin of Russia for war crimes. The court said that Putin bore individual criminal responsibility for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/...-for-putin

[Irreligious Atheist]

The PM of Israel is not merely an expert, as you put it. So you don't think the ex-PM of Israel or former Presidents like Bill Clinton are in the know about world events, and you imagine that because of their lack of knowledge and being in the dark, they have to make guesses based on what they see on the news, and they are subject to blind spots with those guesses. That's your position. Not misrepresenting it.

And that opinion of yours, is naive as shit. When you're in these elite circles, you are told what is going on. If you think Bill Clinton or the ex PM of Israel aren't privy to the goings ons of the world and that they have to make due with guess work like the rest of us schlubs, then you are free to have that opinion I guess. We have Christians and Muslims on here talking about just as crazy of ideas as you just brought up, so why not bring in your crazy too? Extreme ignorance is welcome here. Hopefully you learn a thing or two over your stay here. Cheers.

No, you were  the one who said even experts can get it wrong. Why are you bow trying to turn this around, unless you are indeed full of shit and yourself, which is, by the bye, my opinion of you?

You wrote:

Highly qualified people have blinders on and get things wrong all of the time. Qualifications or not, you were shown to be wrong, and the Israeli PM confirmed the obvious, which anyone with eyes to see could see nearly a year ago.

So is your Israeli premier "highly qualified"? Does he escape your scrutiny because he has a title?

You have not shown evidence for what you think is "obvious", except to quote someone who is in your opinion "highly qualified", while at the same time you have not laid out his qualifications nor solid evidence to back up his claim. You've said his word is enough, but you've also said that the words of "highly qualified" people can still be wrong.

Do you now see your mental lapse? I do. In short, this is an appeal to authority. The fact that you don't yourself recognize this marks you as a slipshod thinker.

Haha yes it is an appeal to authority and 100 pieces of other information on the ground pointing to the exact thing that authority on the matter is saying. And you know why I don't question it? If anything, you'd imagine that Western elitists would want to hide the reality that the US scuttled the peace deal, so if the Israeli PM had said that the deal was not scuttled, then I would not believe him. He came out with a piece of knowledge that you'd think the mainstream wouldn't necessarily want us to know, and something that caused the mainstream to go into damage control, so this is why the Israeli PM was telling the truth. Just look at all of the red flags. They are all there. He knows what he's saying, and why do you keep equating someone with expertise in a field, to someone like a PM or a Clinton or a Bush or a Rumsfeld, who is literally given the information about what is going on in the world? They are not doing guess work, so there is no room for the blind spots to come in, so I don't know why you keep going on about this.

But I'm glad you admitted as much, that you don't understand how PMs and Bushes and Clintons have all of the information about the workings of the world that they want. Blind spots aren't an issue when you have real knowledge. What you are doing by asking for proof and basically enough to convict someone in court, is playing judge and jury here, and playing dumb. What we have here, is basically a tape of a mob leader saying he's about to put out a hit on someone, and then a day later, the person ends up thrown into the lake, and you're sitting here going, but you're only appealing to the authority of the mob boss and taking his word for it. You didn't see the man get murdered or thrown in the water. Where's your real proof, huh? The mob boss and his men are innocent, I tells ya. Cringe.  

[Thumpalumpacus]

Haha yes it is an appeal to authority and 100 pieces of other information on the ground pointing to the exact thing that authority on the matter is saying. And you know why I don't question it? If anything, you'd imagine that Western elitists would want to hide the reality that the US scuttled the peace deal, so if the Israeli PM had said that the deal was not scuttled, then I would not believe him. He came out with a piece of knowledge that you'd think the mainstream wouldn't necessarily want us to know, and something that caused the mainstream to go into damage control, so this is why the Israeli PM was telling the truth. Just look at all of the red flags. They are all there. He knows what he's saying, and why do you keep equating someone with expertise in a field, to someone like a PM or a Clinton or a Bush or a Rumsfeld, who is literally given the information about what is going on in the world? They are not doing guess work, so there is no room for the blind spots to come in, so I don't know why you keep going on about this.

So you are happy to say that experts can be wrong, but the guy you think is an expert cannot be wrong. Here, ya blowhard --

That's what I think of your slipshod nonsense. You're a bunch of blather, panties in a wad, but you don't even have the thinking to see why you've shot yourself in the foot.

But I'm glad you admitted as much, that you don't understand how PMs and Bushes and Clintons have all of the information about the workings of the world that they want.

Well, first, I made no admission at all, and secondly, if you think you understand anything at all you'd ought to start demonstrating it forthwith. Not all politicians have all information at all times, but I have to confess your faith is charming.

Blind spots aren't an issue when you have real knowledge. What you are doing by asking for proof and basically enough to convict someone in court, is playing judge and jury here, and playing dumb. What we have here, is basically a tape of a mob leader saying he's about to put out a hit on someone, and then a day later, the person ends up thrown into the lake, and you're sitting here going, but you're only appealing to the authority of the mob boss and taking his word for it. You didn't see the man get murdered or thrown in the water. Where's your real proof, huh? The mob boss and his men are innocent, I tells ya. Cringe.  

Dude, put the pipe down, you're rambling now. If you have real knowledge, throw down. Let's see some in=depth articles showing how the one guy had it right and everyone else wrong. If you think your Israeli is an authority on negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, again -- throw down. Give me facts. Everything I've read says that the peace talks broke down because the Russians would not concede Crimea. If you know and can source credibly otherwise, let's see your cards.

Alternatively, if you can't, you should probably start learning phrases like "I think" or "in my opinion" or "I might be full of shit, but ...". Just a friendly suggestion ... "bro".

What's that? You don't have facts? Then your guess is as good as mine, and I trust myself before I trust your dumb ass. You're some schlub online I don't know from a can of paint, and quite frankly doesn't present much insight. I'll think for myself and you can fulminate in your own good time, dingbat.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Haha yes it is an appeal to authority and 100 pieces of other information on the ground pointing to the exact thing that authority on the matter is saying. And you know why I don't question it? If anything, you'd imagine that Western elitists would want to hide the reality that the US scuttled the peace deal, so if the Israeli PM had said that the deal was not scuttled, then I would not believe him. He came out with a piece of knowledge that you'd think the mainstream wouldn't necessarily want us to know, and something that caused the mainstream to go into damage control, so this is why the Israeli PM was telling the truth. Just look at all of the red flags. They are all there. He knows what he's saying, and why do you keep equating someone with expertise in a field, to someone like a PM or a Clinton or a Bush or a Rumsfeld, who is literally given the information about what is going on in the world? They are not doing guess work, so there is no room for the blind spots to come in, so I don't know why you keep going on about this.

So you are happy to say that experts can be wrong, but the guy you think is an expert cannot be wrong. Here, ya blowhard --

That's what I think of your slipshod nonsense. You're a bunch of blather, panties in a wad, but you don't even have the thinking to see why you've shot yourself in the foot.

But I'm glad you admitted as much, that you don't understand how PMs and Bushes and Clintons have all of the information about the workings of the world that they want.

Well, first, I made no admission at all, and secondly, if you think you understand anything at all you'd ought to start demonstrating it forthwith. Not all politicians have all information at all times, but I have to confess your faith is charming.

Blind spots aren't an issue when you have real knowledge. What you are doing by asking for proof and basically enough to convict someone in court, is playing judge and jury here, and playing dumb. What we have here, is basically a tape of a mob leader saying he's about to put out a hit on someone, and then a day later, the person ends up thrown into the lake, and you're sitting here going, but you're only appealing to the authority of the mob boss and taking his word for it. You didn't see the man get murdered or thrown in the water. Where's your real proof, huh? The mob boss and his men are innocent, I tells ya. Cringe.  

Dude, put the pipe down, you're rambling now. If you have real knowledge, throw down. Let's see some in=depth articles showing how the one guy had it right and everyone else wrong. If you think your Israeli is an authority on negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, again -- throw down. Give me facts. Everything I've read says that the peace talks broke down because the Russians would not concede Crimea. If you know and can source credibly otherwise, let's see your cards.

Alternatively, if you can't, you should probably start learning phrases like "I think" or "in my opinion" or "I might be full of shit, but ...". Just a friendly suggestion ... "bro".

What's that? You don't have facts? Then your guess is as good as mine, and I trust myself before I trust your dumb ass. You're some schlub online I don't know from a can of paint, and quite frankly doesn't present much insight. I'll think for myself and you can fulminate in your own good time, dingbat.

IA acting like a big shot when he fell for a blatant falsehood about his own source.

[The Grand Nudger]

This has been one of the more tiresome bits of bullshit about the war. The us scuttled some peace deal that vlad would never have stuck with even if it existed. Okay, how? By saying we'd give them weapons? Think it through.....

[Leonardo17]

There are people on the other side of the Atlantic who share your concerns. Even in Germany there is a group of people who are asking the question “How does this war end?”
 
I personally think that you and these people are simply overestimating the capacities of Russia. Today’s Russia is not the Soviet Union. It is also not the new / dynamic and growing economy of the early 2000’s (even that was a myth in many ways). Todays Russia is a country that is about to be booted from the UN Security Council because it simply lacks the legal requirements:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/danger-russia...46049.html
 
That’s my first point. Second point: History shows that if you turn a blind eye on such people (like they did to Mussolini and Hitler in the 30’s) they’ll keep getting hungrier and greedier. You know Hitler could have been easily stopped as soon as he started rebuilding the German Army (illegally at the time) and stationing (illegally) permanent troops in Rhineland. But the French decided to ignore him so he kept growing until he annexed Poland together with Stalin. Than you had 50 million deaths. So you cogitate on the results of a similar approach with a nuclear power like Russia.
 
3) If you don’t stop Putin in Ukraine, you can already present Taiwan to Xi-Ji-Ping on a silver plate while you’re on it.
 
4) It’s a matter of ideology. 24 million Taiwanese is not a significant number of people when compared with China that has a population of 2 billion. Yet, these 24 million people do not want the Tyranny of the CCP. Nor do Belarussians want to “reunite” with Russia.
 
But yes. This last one is a personal choice. You totally have the right to say “not my problem”. I just wanted you to see the whole picture before you say that

I don't think I'm overestimating Russia. They are in a very embarrassing spot right now, for sure. What reason do they have to not drag the war on for years though, at this point, given that NATO now says Ukraine is joining? Putin has no incentive to stop the war. Ethinc Russians are dying out, and Putin may very well see his life and survival being on the line. And how is China going to react to NATO growing stronger and clamping down on powers like Russia? Well, right now China is saying, continue with what you're doing, and there will be conflict, so you can look at it both ways. If Russia won in Ukraine, that might embolden China, sure, but with NATO clamping down on Russia, that may scare the Chinese into acting and doing what you say you are worried they might do in Taiwan/ the South China Sea.

Thanks for your post. I appreciate that you stuck to making your argument rather than just throwing out a bunch of insults like the others, and you certainly made some good points.

There is nothing wrong with diverging opinions. We live in the democratically governed parts of the world right?
 
But one of the cause of angry responses is that this is a matter of ideology rather than the protection of a group of people or nation. See this article:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-teach...00677.html
 
Russian parents are now worried because Putin has reintroduced Stalin Era brainwashing classes on school children. Both parents and teachers are very critical (in a country in which all media is state-sponsored). 1 million Russian have fled Russia. I don’t know how to explain this, I was out yesterday for a classic music concert. There was this Russian couple, and I carry the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag on my backpack, next to my own country flag of course and in their country even wearing these colors is a sign meaning “No to War” just like the green ribbon (Mixture of blue and yellow colors) being left on a public space where everyone can see it. In Russia it’s a clear symbol of defiance toward authorities and they can take away your children for doing something like that. So I don’t know if you are old enough to remember the “Je suis Charlie” movement in 2015, but there is now a worldwide reaction to worldwide events. Like the Women, Life, Freedom movement for instance. There is this feeling of solidarity with others. And I don’t feel like I’m supporting Ukrainians by supporting Ukraine. Actually I feel more empathic toward Russians than toward Ukrainians.
 
But again: There is nothing wrong with your “mind my own business” attitude either. I have to give you that

[Leonardo17]

I missed that bit before..but it's on point.  "That Russian Dude" that didn't fire the nukes even though his very own putin ordered him to held back because he had good reason to believe that his gear was malfunctioning.  Sort of like russians today might wonder if their gear is malfunctioning or their putin has thrown a bolt.  No reason for them, to die for that shit, right???

..unless we only brought it up because we're in the camp who thinks he should have mashed that shit hard, even so, like russia is doing to ukraine....

For those not in the know:

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident.[1] On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm.[2]

His subsequent decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,[3] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war which could have wiped out half of the population of the countries involved. An investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned. Because of his decision not to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike amid this incident, Petrov is often credited as having "saved the world".[4][5][6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

How much more must the Russian military be doubting their equipment after all the flaws showing up in Ukraine? Nukes deteriorate, sensors malfunction, weak leaders make shoddy decisions ... the uncertainty levels in Russia's military must be pretty nerve-wracking.

I think this makes the threat more real than less real. And I think China and India’s role on that might be crucial. The shorter this war drags on the less chance for a nuclear accident of that sort.
 
+ I don’t like this new arms race between the West and China either. I think we should be focusing our efforts on our energy transition rather than on a new cold-war with China.
 
So if Xi is clever enough to see these things (I think his predecessors would have seen it) there might be a change for the better within one year or so. If not, I personally am not sure where this will lead us either
 

[Leonardo17]

Also, I found this odd bit of news this morning. I call it "odd" considering that the appeaser above quoted an Israeli official as complaining that NATO torpedoed the earlier peace talks. Israel seems to have had something of a change of heart.

Israel recently approved the export licenses for the possible sale of anti-drone jamming systems that could help Ukraine counter Iranian drones used by Russia during the war, three Israeli and Ukrainian officials said.

Why it matters: It's the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago that Israel has approved defense export licenses for possible weapons sales to Ukraine.

Israel has been careful not to give military assistance to Ukraine, fearing such a move could create tension with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.

Driving the news: After Russia started using Iranian-made attack drones during the war, the Ukrainian government increased its pressure for Israeli military assistance.

Ukrainian officials have claimed that providing weapons systems to Ukraine is in Israel's best interest because Iran is able to gain information about how the drones perform and then make improvements.

Iran has acknowledged it delivered some drones to Russia before the war started, but denies doing so after the invasion began. Russia denies using Iranian-made drones during the war, despite growing evidence to the contrary.

Behind the scenes: The approval of the export licenses by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Foreign Minister Eli Cohen came in mid-February as Israel was conducting a Netanyahu-ordered review of its policy toward the war, the Israeli and Ukrainian officials said. That review has been completed but no new decisions have been made, according to Israeli officials.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/israel-...russia-war

Israel’s hands are tied because of the Russian military presence is Syria
+ They are facing an internal political crisis
+ No one knows what they are going to do if Iran pushes it’s nuclear ambitions even further.