Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

It is common sense, basic terror tactics. What is the best way to terrorize, torture, someone? Target their family and loved ones. Cartels do this, gangs do this, and government agencies are just, by essence, rich gangs.

Of course government agencies do that sort of thing. The discussion is whether it happened in this particular case, which it almost certainly didn't, unless someone in Ukraine's spec ops community predicted that father and daughter would trade cars at the last minute. It follows that her death was most likely a happenstance.

[The Grand Nudger]

I don't believe anything the russians say Modernite, I only added it for background.  The truth is likely that the russians didn't know shit and didn't warn him about shit they didn't know about.  They couldn't bring themselves to say that, though, just like they can never bring themselves to admit that ukraine has shot down this or that mission critical asset, or blown up this or that depot, or sunk this or that boat, or scrapped this or that unbeatable supertank.  

It's always careless smokers and friendly fire and operator error and they're aware and everything is going fine..just fine.

[Pat Mustard]

So, I was wondering; Russia has a higher population than Ukraine, but still, it kinda seems to me (but not completely) that Russia is losing troops fast, and is giving little training when they recruit new troops for the war. So, how do you you all think this war of attrition thing will end for Russia? I mean, even should Russia win, it will be costly. If they continue what they are doing now, they will lose a lot of lives and resources, so the war can't be that beneficial for them.

What do you all think, though?

The only chance Russia had of ever winning the "peace" if they had won the war is if their assumed three day operation scenario had panned out, where the civilian population of Ukraine would have spontaneously revolted and joined their new Russian slave masters in joyous union. Any other scenario and even a complete conquest of Ukraine would have lead Russia into a quagmire occupation it couldn't survive for more than a year or two without collapsing.

[Pat Mustard]

Even if the Russians win on the battlefield, they will be saddled with an insurgency that will drain their coffers and Putin's popularity. He will be forced to tighten the screws in order to tamp down internal dissent. The race will be between his loss of support and Ukraine's willingness to keep fighting. I suspect the latter will outlast the former.

Now that’s what I’m talking.

Why, may I ask, do you expect the latter to outlast the former, though?

It's been replicated throughout history. In my own country's history we were at war with British occupiers on and off from the mid 1500s to 1921 with any time there wasn't an active attempt to regain freedom having many groups trying to plan and equip for the next one. When you are trying to occupy a hostile country, even one that isn't receiving outside help, it is very hard to keep a lid on revolts unless you've overwhelming power.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Now that’s what I’m talking.

Why, may I ask, do you expect the latter to outlast the former, though?

It's been replicated throughout history.  In my own country's history we were at war with British occupiers on and off from the mid 1500s to 1921 with any time there wasn't an active attempt to regain freedom having many groups trying to plan and equip for the next one.  When you are trying to occupy a hostile country, even one that isn't receiving outside help, it is very hard to keep a lid on revolts unless you've overwhelming power.

There’s a great scene in Michael Collins where the Brits are waiting for the official transfer of power. When Collins and his entourage arrive, the British commander looks at his watch and tells Collins, ‘You’re seven minutes late.’

The Big Fella smiles and says, ‘You’ve kept us waiting seven hundred years. You can have your seven minutes.’

Boru

[Anomalocaris]

---

Modernite’s comment on pan-Slavism:
 
See the recent events in the Bashkir Region:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17...hkortostan
 
Half of Russia’s population (perhaps more) are Turkic people (not Slavs).
 
This is why Russia is not a nation-state proper but a federation.
 
That’s the only thing it can be. It’s a multi-cultural federation in which the Russian ethnic group is the main element.           
 
This pushes some people to believe that it has to turn into an empire once again. My view is that the Democratic Federation model is the most logical model in the short and longer term.

It is absurd to proclaim that half of Russia is Turkic instead of Slavic. According to the 2021 census, 81% of people are ethnic Russians, which is slavic.

I think that came from Nazi era propaganda depicting the Russians as “asiatic hordes” in the most derogatory sense.

[ShinyCrystals]

So, in terms of the something i said and a question I asked earlier, and just to make sure about the responses I have received for what I said; are most people here saying that; after I talked about Ukraine having a smaller population and me thinking that they won't win the war, that Russia might be the one that ends up losing here?

Again, I am asking just to make sure.

[The Grand Nudger]

There isn't much "end up" to it. The russians are currently losing. Ukraine still exists, and russia has done nothing but lose occupied territory. Supposing russia actually does have a meaningful advantage in it's population this is what that amounts to. Following up a failed invasion with failed terror tactics put russias maximalist goals out of reach. They need something else to happen, they need some other and additional advantage to present itself - but it's not clear what that would be - or that if it did present itself, it wouldn't end up on ebay. The reich wing seceding from the us and joining mother russia would be nice, but even that in and of itself won't provide any clear path to the dissoultion of the ukranian state and the eradication of ukranian identity.

Prigo got it exactly right in one of his many rants. They'd gone to weaken and demilitarize The Nazis™..but..somehow, they'd only militarized them and made them stronger. Acknowledging that was his greatest sin.

[ShinyCrystals]

I see. Still, on Russia currently losing and all, how long might that last?

[Thumpalumpacus]

So, in terms of the something i said and a question I asked earlier, and just to make sure about the responses I have received for what I said; are most people here saying that; after I talked about Ukraine having a smaller population and me thinking that they won't win the war, that Russia might be the one that ends up losing here?

Again, I am asking just to make sure.

I think Russia will be tired out, and that Putin will be either deposed or dead, and that Russia will then see the folly of its ways. They will not be able to subjugate Ukraine, just as they couldn't subjugate Afghanistan and had to slink home from there too.

Note that that defeat destroyed the Communist regime. If Russia suffers much more, Putin might be deposed before rather than after Russian defeat.