Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

Telegram ofc, the place where russian government and/or panicked cries for air support go to die.

[Thumpalumpacus]

More proof that we live in the upside down.  What passes for russian authority in kursk oblast announces plans to evacuate civilians into occupied ukraine.

Got a link, brotha? I need to read this.

[The Grand Nudger]

https://t.me/gubernator_46/7519

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/08/1...ine-a86011
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-evacu...ia-oblast/
https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1823302194449244247

..meanwhile, gerasimov is pushed out of the loop in kursk defense. Damned generals just keep failing Putin, so he's gonna have the fsb and his own mercs handle things, with his former bodyguard heading it up. Careful around windows Valery.

[The Valkyrie]

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I think the Ukrainian incursion was a brilliant idea. They still have restrictions on using donated weapons across the border, so their solution was to move the border. Next level, that is.

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

ISW reports:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area. Zelensky stated on August 3 that Ukrainian forces "control" 74 localities in Kursk Oblast.[1] It is unclear if Zelensky meant that Ukrainian forces are operating in 74 settlements or if he was referring to another type of geographic administrative units. ISW has observed claims and geolocated footage indicating that Ukrainian forces are operating in or near roughly 41 settlements in Kursk Oblast as of August 13, although there are many extremely small settlements and localities within this area that ISW has not included in this count. Discrepancies between Ukrainian official reporting and ISW's observed claims and geolocated footage are not a refutation of Ukrainian official reporting but rather are a result of the inherent limitations of ISW's open-source methodology and commitment to using only publicly available information.

[...]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have not completely stabilized the situation in Kursk Oblast despite ongoing efforts to stabilize the frontline and repel Ukrainian attacks.[6]

[...]

The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources claimed as of August 12 and 13 that elements of the Russian "Pyatnashka" Brigade's "Sarmat" Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Crops recently transferred to Kursk Oblast.[17] ISW has recently observed claims that elements of the "Sarmat" Battalion and other elements of the "Pyatnashka" Brigade and Russian Volunteer Corps are operating in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions in Donetsk Oblast.[18] Russian milbloggers previously claimed that elements of the "Dikaya Division of Donbas," the "Pyatnashka" Brigade, the "Arbat" Separate Guards Special Purpose Battalion, and the "Night Wolves" drone detachment responded to the incursion and quickly redeployed to Kursk Oblast, and ISW had previously observed these units purportedly operating throughout Donetsk Oblast.

[...]

The Russian military command could also be redeploying units that were previously intended to relieve or reinforce frontline units from rear areas in Donetsk Oblast to Kursk Oblast, and such a redeployment could affect the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Russian military's assessed priority sectors over time. ISW would likely not observe confirmation of such re-deployments in the open source and is not prepared to offer assessments about the tempo of Russian operations in those sectors at this time.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates

Additionally, The War Zone reports:

“In the border area of ​​Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian troops continue their attempts to advance northward toward Kurchatov,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel stated.

It also suggested Ukraine was eyeing a Western expansion of its operation.

“In the afternoon, information appeared about a massive shelling of Tetkino by artillery,” Rybar stated in an earlier post. “Given the pattern of enemy actions, the probability of opening another section of the front is still not zero.”

[...]

Visual evidence is emerging that Ukraine is flying around the Sumy-Kursk border and has launched airstrikes in Kursk, a sign that its air force feels comfortable that Russian air defenses are well suppressed in the general area.

“Ukrainian formations are using aircraft to strike the border area,” Rybar said, claiming that “the use of JDAM-ER guided bombs against a local grain storage facility in Tetkino has been noted.” The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.

[...]

Russia failed to stop the Ukrainian invasion despite being warned months ahead of time that it was likely, a former Russian reconnaissance group commander claimed in a recent interview with the Russian Interesting Stories publication.

After months of small-scale incursions by groups like the Freedom of Russia Legion designed largely to gather intelligence about Russian defenses, Ukraine launched a major invasion at a vulnerable location, striking as quickly and deeply as possible, the group commander said.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are generating tangible defensive, logistical, and security impacts within Russia. Commercially available satellite imagery collected by Maxar on August 12 shows a newly dug series of field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches southwest of Lgov along the E38 Lgov-Rylsk-Hlukhiv highway (northwest of Sudzha).[19] Additional satellite imagery published on August 13 and collected between August 6 and 11 shows the recent appearance of field fortifications near the 38K-024 highway just south of Lgov.[20] These new fortifications are about 17 kilometers north of the furthest claimed limit of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, which suggests that Russian forces are concerned about potential continued and rapid Ukrainian mechanized northward advances within Kursk Oblast. Russian forces appear particularly concerned about major highways and are likely trying to preemptively safeguard important ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to inhibit Ukrainian maneuver, particularly along the E38 and 38K routes. Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are also reportedly impacting Russian railway logistics — the Belarusian Railway Workers Community claimed on August 13 that its internal sources are reporting that Russian state-owned railway company Russian Railways informed Belarusian state-owned railway company Belarusian Railways to stop directing trains from all Belarusian Railway stations to stations along the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway starting on August 12 due to a "large-scale operational transfer of troops in the direction of Kursk Oblast" and the movement of freight trains for military logistical purposes.[21] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also announced a state of emergency in Belgorod Oblast on August 14, which will allow Belgorod Oblast authorities the power to restrict movement within emergency areas likely either to secure Russian logistical support for Belgorod Oblast border areas or Russian defensive measures within Kursk Oblast.[22]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates

[The Grand Nudger]

A reminder of the discipline ukrainian forces maintain while operating under asinine restrictions - they are already close enough to level kursk with tube artillery. Ukraine does not intend to occupy kursk, according to ukraine...which is bad news for anyone living in or around kursk.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrain...747423ca4d

[Deesse23]

Things will get to a next level, when (and if) Russia is going to counterattack and had to risk the lives of Russians and damage russian infrastructure. Domestic implications should be interesting.

[The Grand Nudger]

Russia has managed to hit it's own border towns with some regularity over the past year. Most recently with glide bombs. I guess the question is what happens when they do it on purpose.