Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

lol, Russia hasn't been "disruptive" because it didn't say so in the article? Aside from Ukraine, you could also look at Georgia or Chechnya to see their malign intent and deeds. As for China, their behavior in South China Sea belies "peaceful intent". They want peace, to be sure, in the sense that they prefer bloodless gains to fighting for them.

As was posted at the main gate of my nuclear-bomber base: War is our profession, peace is our product.

[Belacqua]

"To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” ~ Henry Kissinger

[Thumpalumpacus]

"To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” ~ Henry Kissinger

The context is advice Kissinger was giving the Nixon administration on handling the leader of a South Vietnamese coup:

"Nixon should be told that it is probably a goal of (Johnson’s Defense Secretary) Clifford to remove Thieu (South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu) before Nixon takes office. One should tell Nixon that if Thieu suffers the same fate as Diem, the nations of the world will learn that being America's enemy may be dangerous, but being America's friend is fatal.”

In other words, Kissinger was speaking about a hypothetical circumstance that would result in a very bad distrust of America. You're either ignorant of this context, or you deliberately stripped it away in order to completely misrepresent what Kissinger said.

I personally lean towards you practicing deliberate misrepresentation. Dishonesty seems to be the cut of your jib.

[Deesse23]

To realize that both sides have legitimate security concerns,

Bullshit

Nobody has intended to invade Russia, nobody intends to invade Russia, nobody will intend to invade Russia. Just stop the bullshit, please.
All Russia has are concerns regarding its DOMINANCE in Eastern Europe. All Russia has are concerns CONTROLLING other countries outside its borders (like Belarus). Thats NOT a legitimate reason for invasions, morally or legally, for christs fucking sake.

How about Moldova? I am sure it has severe security concerns now. Is it ok for Moldova to invade Russia now?

[The Architect Of Fate]

To realize that both sides have legitimate security concerns,

Russia has no legitimate concerns.NATO is never going to invade Russia. If they were worried about Nukes or their border  then where was the invasion of the Baltic states? Putin himself has made it clear that this has nothing to do with security and everything to do with the Putin regime's belief that Ukraine belongs to them and should never have been allowed to leave.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Looks to me like Bakhmut will be lost:

DONETSK PROVINCE, Ukraine, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Russia forces on Tuesday stepped up their weeks-long drive to encircle the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut where the commander of Ukraine's ground forces described the situation as "extremely tense".

Russian forces, including mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group, are trying to cut the Ukrainian defenders' supply lines to the city, scene of some of the war's bloodiest battles, and force them to surrender or withdraw.

That would give Russia its first major prize in more than half a year and open the way to the capture of the last remaining urban centres in the Donetsk region, which Moscow claims to have annexed along with three other Ukrainian regions.

"Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city," Ukraine's Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi was quoted as saying on a military messaging platform.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...023-02-28/

[Leonardo17]

Leonardo17As far I can see, it is China / not Russia who has started this “charm offensive” (or  so called “peace plan”) in an attempt to try to win over the global south.

Do you mean the peace plan that China proposed in the last few days? Is this an attempt to win over the global south? Because it looks like a proposal that would stop Ukrainians from dying.
China has been investing heavily in various countries in the global south. They build infrastructure and buy resources. This has been going on for a while now, so if you want to call that a charm offensive I guess that makes sense. But it's business -- buying and selling. 

Nearly every country in the global south imports more goods from China than anywhere else. Worldwide, China now sells about as many cars as Germany does, and more than the US.

And it’s not an empty attempt because countries like Brasil, India or South-Africa do not entirely understand the existential issue in this war that they may see as “too far away” from them. But the US is making efforts to convince them otherwise. And this is very important because the Chino-Russian influence in West Africa is clearly disruptive. There are many people who have to flee advancing “Jihadi” groups like Boko-Haram in countries like Chad and Niger because local dictators preferred to work with Wagner rather than the stability promoting French and German troops there.  (https://reporting.unhcr.org/west-central-africa)

I don't see in the page at the link where it says that China or Russia have been "disruptive." They have become more popular in Africa and South America than the former colonial powers. China, for example, built a deep-water port in one country that the US was bombing at the same time. It's not hard to see which influence would be more popular. 

Look at it this way: people in Laos think of America as the country that dropped more bombs on them than were dropped on Europe in all of WWII. And they look at China as the country that built them a high speed railroad that is better than anything in the US.

 
   The position of China is also changing rapidly. 20 years ago it was a (yes) authoritarian state that was mostly inner economic growth rather than ambitious political expansion. Today it is clearly moving toward a much disruptive role in the world + inner balances of the CCP are said to have been changed toward more authoritarianism since Xi-Chi-Ping came to power. And this is also something big. Because if you want economic growth, you have to want peace. So how can Xi be promoting economic growth if he decides to provide weapons to the Russian? With about 300,000 – 400,000 causalities already this number will easily move toward the million within a year or so. So what is China even doing? 

I don't understand how China's role will be "disruptive." They have enormous economic growth, and they haven't been involved in a shooting war for decades. 

Also I'm curious where you hear that Xi is more authoritarian. Polls in China show that far more people in China consider their country to be a responsive democracy than Americans do. You have to remember that a great deal of what you read in the anglophone media is false. The widely-repeated story that the Chinese government has a "social credit" system to rate people's behavior, for example, is complete fiction. My source for this: the people I talked to at universities in Beijing, Nanking, and Shangdong. The Chinese people I travelled with when I went to Confucius' house and tomb. The Chinese people I climbed Tai Shan with. The Chinese students at my grad school. And English-speaking independent journalists who have lived in China for years. 

There's a lot of talk about China selling weapons to Russia, but so far it's all talk. Is it bad to provide weapons to a country at war? Because I can name a few that have done more than talk. 

You call China's proposed peace plan a "charm offensive," but if both sides followed it there would be peace. The US immediately said they wouldn't do it. What is America even doing? 

 
   By the way there are “No to War” demonstrations in Germany today. So let’s face it: no one wants this WWI 2.0 right now, but where is the solution?

The solution is to stop fighting. To stop enabling the fighting. To realize that both sides have legitimate security concerns, and to address those through negotiations. New elections in Ukraine to replace the officials put in office by Victoria Nuland -- undo the pro-American coup done in 2014. Have Biden stop bragging in public about controlling Ukraine's domestic criminal investigations. 

If you want the war to continue until you get to a condition you consider favorable to your side, you are pro-war. The people demonstrating in Germany want the war to stop right away.

I gave you a thumb up for China’s efforts on “stopping the shooting”. In fact Zelensky is inviting Xi-Chi-Ping to address the issue in details. While Putin seems to be refusing it, I think it’s worth trying. And what the heck / keep Crimea if this will make you end the deaths. Of course you are right on this.
 
On China: You might want to see this article:
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-purging...15239.html
 
The China of the end of the 90’s was an authoritarian state that was slowly embracing more liberal values. I think this is why the Brits gave them Hong-Kong without any serious discussion. Now the political sphere of China is also as opaque as the Kremlin. But my impression is that authoritarianism is on the rise. And since they are considering giving lethal weapons to Russia I don’t see it as a good sign. But I hope I am wrong

[Leonardo17]

lol, Russia hasn't been "disruptive" because it didn't say so in the article? Aside from Ukraine, you could also look at Georgia or Chechnya to see their malign intent and deeds. As for China, their behavior in South China Sea belies "peaceful intent". They want peace, to be sure, in the sense that they prefer bloodless gains to fighting for them.

As was posted at the main gate of my nuclear-bomber base: War is our profession, peace is our product.

Xi said that he would take Taiwan “by force if necessary” and he also said that his tie of friendship to Russia is “limitless” + there are several “clans” in the Chinese political system. (3 or 4 of them I believe). With Xi in power there is only his clan. Meaning there is no one left to contradict him on any issue + he is “the president for life”. As far as I know many people are very worried on this. + If he starts diving weapons + ammo + modern components to be used in military equipment to Russia, It’s the start of Cold War II. The China of 20 years ago wouldn’t want that. I’m quite sure of that. But this Xi-Chi-Ping? – I don’t know. He seems to be a sane person but Putin was also a very sane person at least in the beginning 

[Leonardo17]

To realize that both sides have legitimate security concerns,

Russia has no legitimate concerns.NATO is never going to invade Russia. If they were worried about Nukes or their border  then where was the invasion of the Baltic states? Putin himself has made it clear that this has nothing to do with security and everything to do with the Putin regime's belief that Ukraine belongs to them and should never have been allowed to leave.

This is just propaganda talking. The man himself is believing his own propaganda. So I’m curious about Chinese steps in the coming days. As I said 200,000 people in one year. That’s the US casualties in the 10 year long Vietnam war. I think we can be better than that in 2023. Somebody should be able to speak his language somehow.

[Thumpalumpacus]

This war won't end until Putin for whatever reason decides it will end.