Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

The burdens won't start until the war ends and reconstruction begins.  Right now, something like 90% of ukranian assistance in the us goes to us states.  That will change when it comes time to build homes in ukraine as opposed to defense production lines in the us.

From a cynical beancounting pov, ukraine is all upside for the us, which makes the agents, traitors, and arsonists line in our government especially hollow and self serving.

Even the gear we're sending is largely older stuff already in the process of being replaced, and sunk-cost. It's already paid-for, and the only expense is the Jet-A burnt to fly it over.

[Fireball]

The burdens won't start until the war ends and reconstruction begins.  Right now, something like 90% of ukranian assistance in the us goes to us states.  That will change when it comes time to build homes in ukraine as opposed to defense production lines in the us.

From a cynical beancounting pov, ukraine is all upside for the us, which makes the agents, traitors, and arsonists line in our government especially hollow and self serving.

And all those agents, traitors and arsonists are primarily from states benefitting from the production of war materiel being sent to Ukraine. Bad enough they want to burn down the whole gov, they're shitting in their own back yards. They really do need a god to keep them in line, such as that is.

[Deesse23]

Jens Stoltenberg is still saying that the war is likely to be long and costly. This mean additional burdens for all Western economies. This might give plenty of time to new actors in the world like China and India to develop their economies and armies and become a huge problem for everyone in the future.
 

Everyone?

Germany is going to double its spending for Ukraine to 8bn€, equaling 2% of its 450bn€ annual budget, equaling 0.2% of its GDP.
Russia plans to spend on "defense" 100bn€, equaling 30% of its 300bn€ budget and 6% of Russias GDP.

That "everyone" is Russia.

[Leonardo17]

Jens Stoltenberg is still saying that the war is likely to be long and costly. This mean additional burdens for all Western economies. This might give plenty of time to new actors in the world like China and India to develop their economies and armies and become a huge problem for everyone in the future.
 

Everyone?

Germany is going to double its spending for Ukraine to 8bn€, equaling 2% of its 450bn€ annual budget, equaling 0.2% of its GDP.
Russia plans to spend on "defense" 100bn€, equaling 30% of its 300bn€ budget and 6% of Russias GDP.

That "everyone" is Russia.

The total EU aid to Ukraine so far is about 88,5 Billion Dollarsa (82 Billion Euros)
 
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infog...y-ukraine/
 
Only 27 Billion of this is military aid. The rest of it is humanitarian and financial aid. So we can assume that after the war, Europe is going to rebuild Ukraine probably with Ukraine becoming the newest member of the EU.
 
The US aid to Ukraine is actually smaller than the EU: 75 Billion dollar.
 
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid...six-charts
 
But the US aid is more visible because 46,5 Billion of it (61%) is direct military assistance. We would probably not be discussing anything now without that military aid
 

---

---

 
- I am not talking about Russia when I am talking about “everyone” spending a lot of resources. Think many opportunities Russia have been lost in the 90’s and Putin is a direct result of that.
 
I’m rather referring to something out of my history books. During WWI the United States and Russia did not participate to the war (For the US: not until the very end of the war). So European powers France, England, Germany were greatly weakened by their 4 year war efforts. Japan and the US than emerged as major powers having used that opportunity to industrialize and strengthen their economies.
 
Now China’s economic boom of the 2000’s seems to have ended. After Covid, Europe is reindustrializing and increasingly protecting its market from an unbalanced trade with China. And there are similar trends in the US.
 
So I’m eyeing India and Saudi Arabia mostly. And of course China. That’s because India under Modi is also becoming increasingly authoritarian. But these are my own deep-state conspiracy theories of course. I’m always very suspicious about all sorts of “strong men” everywhere in the world
 
Here is one of the main reasons for my suspicions:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-naval...18569.html

[Thumpalumpacus]

During WWI the United States and Russia did not participate to the war (For the US: not until the very end of the war).

The Russians were in the war from the first day in Aug 1014 until Mar 1918. Its involvement in the war actually brought about the fall of the Tsar.

As for America, we were in it got 19 months (of a 52-month war), which is a full one-third of the conflict. That doesn't sound like "the very end" to me.

[Fake Messiah]

Russia sent 360,000 troops to Ukraine. They have lost 315,000. 87% of its active duty ground troops.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/12/polit...index.html

[Leonardo17]

During WWI the United States and Russia did not participate to the war (For the US: not until the very end of the war).

The Russians were in the war from the first day in Aug 1014 until Mar 1918. Its involvement in the war actually brought about the fall of the Tsar.

As for America, we were in it got 19 months (of a 52-month war), which is a full one-third of the conflict. That doesn't sound like "the very end" to me.

Sorry, I meant the US and Japan (How Japan + the USA were able to become the new super-powers after WWI). And within Europe, Switzerland. Their policies was always to let the French and the German destroy one another as much as they want while focusing on the betterment of their own economies.
 
Before the Great War, France + England + Germany were competing to dominate the world. The US also industrializeds greatly in that era. Because it was not affected by the war as much as European powers (İncluding England)
 
People are talking about a decade long war now. Europe + the US are putting enormous sums in that war + in the war on Israel. This may lead to a shift in the balances of power in the world.
 
Other point:
 

---

 
- Populist leaders seem to be always working with one another in the world. See what Victor Orban is doing (blocking EU aid to Ukraine). See what Belisarius is doing (still buying cheap Russian Oil)
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/exclu...17149.html
(China and India are doing the same)
The Serbian Populist leader who was elected thanks to electoral fraud is also a pawn of Moscow at the gates of Europe. The Argentinian Crazy Hair 2.0 is set to be another Jair Bolsonaro who will create more disorder in South America thus creating more pressure on the US Border with the issue of Migrants (Like Maduro in Venezuella). In the US, Trumpists want to decrease military aid to Ukraine in a world in which we cannot really afford a frozen conflict with Russia (but I am not a military expert so I don’t really know).
 
Last Year the Iranian activist Masih Alinejad was talking about this and she was not wrong. There is a new war going on but it’s not something you can remove surgically like WWII for instance. It’s more a situation in which you need to see who is who and how these people are sort of working with one another just to add a few decades to the lifespan of their corrupt and perverted ideas.
 
So more clearly: All those who believe in a new social and political reality based on freedom and equality must be ready to face those subtle forces that are completely ego-based and do not believe in any reality except brutal force and power.
 

---

So it seems like I am contradicting the first part of my post here. But I would rather accelerate the aid that is being given to Ukraine (ex: they should have as many F-16’s as half the number of Sukoi jets the Russians have right now. F-16’s are slowly becoming obsolete. So this would even decrease their burden on the US and other militaries).
 
+ On a deeper policy level, there has to be a greater sense of solidarity with democratic efforts in the world. I am saying this because this is the new post cold war reality. I think our generation is the generation that is faced with the more “real” issues now. So we must act accordingly with that.

[Anomalocaris]

Japan was a treaty ally of Britain and was in WWI from very near the beginning,3 weeks after the major European powers declared war on each other, to the very end.

When the war was first declared in Europe there was some confusion in Berlin regarding Tokyo’s stance.   There was misinformation that Japan abrogated her alliance with Britain and attacked Russia far east instead,  this led to an embarrassing parade in Berlin honoring Japan’s alleged treachery.   Soon it was clear that a mistake was made when Japan delivered an ultimatum to Berlin.

Japan seized German colonial possessions in the far east, helped Britain hunt down German far east naval squadron, and sent naval forces to help the French in the Mediterranean, and munition to Britain.   Japanese offer to send ground troops to help on the western front was refused for largely racist reasons.  This and other obviously racist slights by British and Australia contributed to non-renewal of Anglo-Japanese alliance  after WWI.

After Dunkirk, when British army left bulk of its equipment in France,  stocks of Japanese arms supplied during WWI was hauled out of warehouses and used to equip the British home guard, which used japanese Arisaka rifles through WWII.

[Thumpalumpacus]

This and other obviously racist slights by British and Australia contributed to non-renewal of Anglo-Japanese alliance  after WWI.

Not to mention American pressure on Britain to renounce the treaty as a quid pro quo for American signing on to the Washington Naval agreement.

[Leonardo17]

Dennmark + Sweden are sending 1 Billion $ worth of CV-90 Infantry fighting vehicles (+Tanks):
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-denmar...44926.html
 
I am going to repeat myself: All NATO countries are gradually switching to F-35’s, Eurofighters, Mirage airplanes and / or other next generation fighters like JAS 39 Grippens.
 
I would currently urge for fewer hesitations over the transfer of F-16's because Putin mobilizing 600,000 people is not a very good sign. Half of these are going to die and the other half will have psychological issues including drug addiction. All sorts of drugs are circulating within the ranks of the Russian army and the drug mafia behind the front is said to be finding an increasing number of new customers. (As in the 1988 movie “Red Heat” featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger).
 
If I was a white supremacist or something like that I would even ask why so many white people are murdering one another in that war.
 
/Ukrainian casualties are not that low either.  Zelensky is set to announce a new mobilization in the coming months.