Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

Ah yes, those damned ukranian russophobes, what are they thinking?

Whatever they were thinking, they were either not thinking clearly, or they were, but about Russophobia being but a means for themselves to attain power, not an end in service of Ukraine.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Fins had no love for Russia either, but were sophisticated enough to know the fins and Finland does not come off best by giving free vent to the Russophobia sentiments.

I don't think you understand my point. The Ukrainians understand that cultural genocide is on the cards, at the least. Comparing them to Finns is a red herring. You need to be comparing them, and that motivation, not to Finns, but to the Russian dogface and his motivation. Instead, we get this handwavium.

The difference between 1989 in Afghanistan and what is left of Ukraine is Russia does not actually occupy what is left of Ukraine.

Which means that aside from his alleged "genius" at strategery, his war, stalemated two years in, has failed to achieve his opbjective.

 

So insurgency can only target Ukrainians more than Russians, which is unlikely to make it particularly popular.

You forget that the Quislilng government your "thinking" is based upon would be a fat, juicy target, because traitors wouldn't be seen as Ukrainians. There's also the resource extraction back to Russia that you know would have a bullseye on it to make a Target Supercenter blush. The Russian power grid and rail net probably feature computer controls. No, this use of "only" here belies some serious limits on your thinking in this age of drones and cyberattacks.

   

In areas that Russia does occupy, the ethnic mix is much less favorable to any Ukrainian insurgency against a population that is about half Russophone.

Again, you forget that guerillas hiding in hills is hardly the only vector of force in a modern war. This speaks not to the realities on the ground in Ukraine, but to the paucity of your operational imagination.

Ans you're entirely ignoring the fact that Putin's publicly stated goal is the complete occupation and elimination of Ukraine as an independent state. Backing away from that totalist aim will almost certainly erode his position in the corridors of power.

There are so many factors you clearly haven't considered -- or would prefer to remain unexplored for whatever reason.

[ShinyCrystals]

I don't know...while I do have a feeling Russia may win the war, I don't think it would NOT be bittersweet for Putin, or Putinhead as I'd like to call him. If I recall correctly, he is using a lot of the population of his country for soldiers. While Russia's population IS big, the decrease in the population at whatever significant level may not be a good thing for Russia in a way. I mean, Putinhead (that nickname is a pun of Puddin' Head, by the way) has already started resorting to using prisoners and has used mercenaries as soldiers, and is drafting people in Russia while giving them little training, too, if I heard correctly. It also does not help that Putinhead is someone who is not a good strategist and things have not gone his way all the time in this war, as @The Grand Nudger said.

While this may not lead to the Russian populace overthrowing Putinhead. I still think this war, based on however longer it may last, could have more economic and maybe political negative results. I am not sure what, to be honest, but I do think there will be plenty of bittersweet-ness for Russia after the war regardless of if they win. I mean, I have my doubts on Ukraine winning, but even if Ukraine's damages are worse than Russia's, I am more worried about the negative results for Russia more than wanting Ukraine to win.

[Anomalocaris]

I think Russia’s position as a trans-europasia power and as China’s soft under belly, or soft backside if you will,  will make post war Russia a very attractive target for western rapprochement,  so that there is a high probability whoever wins the White House in 2024 or 2028 will shake Putin’s hand as Nixon shook Mao’s hand even while Vietnam war was still on going, and once Ukraine cease fire is in place, Russia would resume being seen as being far more important to core western, as oppose to Eastern European, interests than Ukraine.

This will greatly help Russia’s recovery after the war.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't know...while I do have a feeling Russia may win the war, I don't think it would NOT be bittersweet for Putin, or Putinhead as I'd like to call him. If I recall correctly, he is using a lot of the population of his country for soldiers.

Not really. 2021 population: 145 million. 2022 invasion forces: ~ 200,000. Follow-on forces committed: about half-a-million more. A good portion of the latter 500,000 are indeed either convicts, immigrants, or Russians from distant, outlying oblasts. What this does is concentrate the losses amongst social pariahs or racial/ethnic minorities who live away from the centers of political power.

I mean, Putinhead (that nickname is a pun of Puddin' Head, by the way) has already started resorting to using prisoners and has used mercenaries as soldiers, and is drafting people in Russia while giving them little training, too, if I heard correctly.

All of these factors undercut the development of both effective combat power and morale, especially when we look at how these troops are used tactically, in massed human-wave tactics that waste lives.

[ShinyCrystals]

I don't know...while I do have a feeling Russia may win the war, I don't think it would NOT be bittersweet for Putin, or Putinhead as I'd like to call him. If I recall correctly, he is using a lot of the population of his country for soldiers.

Not really. 2021 population: 145 million. 2022 invasion forces: ~ 200,000. Follow-on forces committed: about half-a-million more. A good portion of the latter 500,000 are indeed either convicts, immigrants, or Russians from distant, outlying oblasts. What this does is concentrate the losses amongst social pariahs or racial/ethnic minorities who live away from the centers of political power.

I mean, Putinhead (that nickname is a pun of Puddin' Head, by the way) has already started resorting to using prisoners and has used mercenaries as soldiers, and is drafting people in Russia while giving them little training, too, if I heard correctly.

All of these factors undercut the development of both effective combat power and morale, especially when we look at how these troops are used tactically, in massed human-wave tactics that waste lives.

Thanks for clarifying the first part, Thumpalumpacus. Looks like I did not recall correctly, after all. Still, we do learn things and it is good to be corrected, too.

Anyway, yeah, I can see what you mean on the second part. It might be obvious already, but it goes to show that Putin does not care about the lives of even his own people, and it seems like he is desperate to win, but does not seem to know what he is doing.

[Anomalocaris]

Not really. 2021 population: 145 million. 2022 invasion forces: ~ 200,000. Follow-on forces committed: about half-a-million more. A good portion of the latter 500,000 are indeed either convicts, immigrants, or Russians from distant, outlying oblasts. What this does is concentrate the losses amongst social pariahs or racial/ethnic minorities who live away from the centers of political power.


All of these factors undercut the development of both effective combat power and morale, especially when we look at how these troops are used tactically, in massed human-wave tactics that waste lives.

Thanks for clarifying the first part, Thumpalumpacus. Looks like I did not recall correctly, after all. Still, we do learn things and it is good to be corrected, too.

Anyway, yeah, I can see what you mean on the second part. It might be obvious already, but it goes to show that Putin does not care about the lives of even his own people, and it seems like he is desperate to win, but does not seem to know what he is doing.

Russia had never won by caring about the lives of her own people, but most of her people are still obsessively proud of the several notable, and notably costly in blood, victories she achieved throughout her history.     Russia likely incurred greater total casualties in 1/6 the time during the ultimately successful 1939-1940 winter war against Finland.    So the story about the cost of the Ukrainian war to Russia is mainly intended to create the anecdotal impression in the west that the proxy war is justified, the cost has a payoff, and success is in sight.   The impression does not withstand scrutiny.

If Russia won, I doubt the cost will burden the reputation of the government that pulled it off very much.     In fact, for as long as the west tries to continue to contain and isolate russia after the Ukrainian war, the cost of Ukrainian war would be even further reduced as a factor impinging on Russian domestic view of the government that waged the war.    It’s only when Russia and the west begin any reapproachment that the cost of Ukrainian war would likely spur any reflection.

[The Grand Nudger]

The russian fed is not the soviet union. The cost to russia has been immense. It's not about a payout to some proxy war, it's about a tragedy for the russian people. One that will impact them for decades longer no matter the ultimate course of the war from here forward, as they were already over the cliff of demographic decline. As they were already incapable of operating their own central industries without foreign labor and technical assistance. As their military was already a hallowed out chop shop for the criminal oligarchy...and on that note...nobody wants to buy their shit anymore because it clearly wouldn't perform even if they hadn't stripped it for parts.

The russian soldiers are mercs to their very core. They go into it eyes wide open about that and about the difficulties in actually getting paid. In the fullness of time, I think putin will go down like his old pal Bush the Younger. A bumbling dipshit that got lead into a deleterious war by the nose. Thinking of only how he might distract from his weakness, and the failures of his regime, by selling a war of "liberation" to his desperate people. He fucked around, and found out. He's as incompetent as any of them.

@ShinyCrystals

All ukraine has to do to win is to continue to exist. If russia magicked up some way to continue this war for a thousand more years...that would be a thousand more years of russia losing this war. The locals have an advantage in that they can win their territory back on the battlefield or in the bedroom.

[Anomalocaris]

Ukraine is one of only of the countries with demographic trends had been consistently worse than Russia’s had been when Russia’s was at its worst at around 2010, and Russian demographic trends have since improved while Ukraine’s has not.  That’s before 7 million Ukrainians, mostly younger and more educated, emigrated rather than fought for Ukraine in the last 2 years.    So Ukrainians winning in the bedroom seems far fetched.

The number who emigrated to escape fighting obligations also suggest the nationalistic unity of purpose and determination to throw out the invaders is not as strong as one might hope.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The number who emigrated to escape fighting obligations also suggest the nationalistic unity of purpose and determination to throw out the invaders is not as strong as one might hope.

Another way to read that is that many of the faint of heart are out of the way -- less to worry about collaborators, turncoats or soft leaks. Too, I'd like to see your numbers on how many fled to escape conscription vs those who fled to get children or elders out of a brutal war zone. You do have a good source or two, right?