Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

If ukraine managed to pull off a fighting retreat after having inflicted mass casualties while russia was attempting to encircle them... and lost 300 men...that would be yet another one for the military history books.

Somehow, in translation, every new russian humiliation turns into a reason to worry for ukraine. Especially when it's being translated from the original russian.

[Thumpalumpacus]

If ukraine managed to pull off a fighting retreat after having inflicted mass casualties while russia was attempting to encircle them... and lost 300 men...that would be yet another one for the military history books.  

Somehow, in translation, every new russian humiliation turns into a reason to worry for ukraine.  Especially when it's being translated from the original russian.

Remember, these journalists were raised by helicopter parents. Handwringing was part of their upbringing. The Russian narrative only reinforces that.

[Pat Mustard]

They've lost the army they came with.  They've lost their entire pre war active tank core.  They've lost many times more than their pre-war active ifv core.  Their black sea fleet and it's port infrastructure is being systematically dismantled by a country with no navy.  The crazy part, though, is that they believe that they are winning - or are about to.  

They must have one hell of an ask in mind for americas first dictator.

   Elon Musk (who is definitely psychotic in many ways) has recently said that “There is no way Ukraine is going to win this war”.
 
   I think he has still a point on many issues: Russia has a gigantic war machine and the Landscape of Ukraine is mainly flat. So there are no jungles and marshes like Vietnam nor a large area with many mountains like in South-Eastern Turkey (where Kurdish Guerillas are fighting since more than 40 years).
 
   Yet, where was this interesting interview yesterday on DW in which the presenter was asking a top Ukrainian official questions like “Does Ukraine have a plan B if Western support continues to diminish?”. One of the things the interviewee said was: “Russia has already lost when it attempted to take Kiev and destroy Ukraine in February 2022”.
 
   Also, I don’t think not stopping Russia in Ukraine now is a good idea because of this:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-priso...28743.html
 
A great man has just disappeared, mainly because he refused to be intimidated no matter what.
 
There is a great documentary on the life of Alexei Navally on Amazon Prime (I didn’t see it yet but I’m going to)

A country using the T-54 as an MBT cannot be said to have a war machine, massive or otherwise.

[Jackalope]

A country using the T-54 as an MBT cannot be said to have a war machine, massive or otherwise.

But...they also have massive numbers of mothballed T-34s.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

^I have a rubber chicken. Doesn’t make me a poultry farmer.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

That's more chicken than the average chmobik has seen since the first days of the full scale invasion.

[Leonardo17]

Here is an article that summarizes the functioning of the Russian war machine:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ravaged-war-r...00323.html
 

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They are producing older tanks (because they don’t have the components that are necessary to build more modern tanks) but they are set to replenish their ranks in 5 to 8 years (not 10 years) because they are putting money into it. They are also recruiting more people and are aiming to create an army of 1,3 million if they can.
  
But new US sanctions are now targeting some 500 or so entities in third countries (In places like Kazakhstan they are just taping modern computer chips on refrigerators before shipping them to Russia for instance ).
 
There is no evidence of China supporting Russia in terms of weaponry and that’s a very good thing, it means they are rational, this in turn probably means that we are not the generation who is set to witness WWIII
 
So my view: Ukraine is having an especially difficult time right now simply because Russian have adopted this salami-slice technique in which they are concentrating all their effort on one target (Bakhmut, Avdivka, now it’s probably the small Ukrainian enclave on the East of the Rive Dnipro), in which they focus all their artillery and air superiority on Ukrainian defenders before initially annihilating them and moving to the next target.
 
This will probably change when they will have used all North-Korean shell and Iranian “60’s Hippy” drones.

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So the new sanctions on Russian economy will play a crucial role. But what I am thinking right now after I watched Alexei Navalny’s documentary on Putin and his kleptocratic friends is that we may not be dealing with a mad man but simply with a typical thief who is simply protecting his self interest rather than some megalomaniac dream (as it was the case for the dictators of The 20th century).

 

So President Biden was probably right by designating him as a “Crazy SOB” (also pointing out that our main worry right now should be the climate):

 

https://www.dw.com/en/biden-calls-putin-...a-68333466

 

That term (SOB) is a slang term that is used to designate a complete egocentric person who does not care about anything or anyone to the exception of his own personal interest.

 
Navalny mentions this issue at the end of his documentary. He says that “Putin and his friends” will always need new billion dollar palaces, new luxury items, new villas and cruise ships for their husbands, daughters, lovers etc. And that this systems cannot work because this small number of people will keep wanting more stuff while the resources of even a big country like Russia cannot cope with this behavior of limitless egocentric wants and needs of a group of modern gangsters (and that’s what they truly are)

[arewethereyet]

Where did you come up with that meaning for SOB?

[The Grand Nudger]

It can be both, Leo. A thief and a madman, judging by this particular smash and grab attempt.

I'd love to see that army of 1.3 million. They're having enough trouble training and equipping the army they have. Gonna be a whole lot of stick and stone brigades. I'm not sure what you would take as evidence that china has supported russia if chinese mortar shells found in the vicinity of dead ukranians doesn't count. Russia can't make enough tanks, russia cant make enough ammo, russia cant train enough soldiers, and russia couldn't feed or clothe them or keep them operational even if they could build or train them.

-and that, is why they wanted a three day war. We're now in year three of putins three day invasion, he remains a master strategist.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

^The ‘reserve (on paper)’ notation is pretty important to understanding the true extent of Russian losses.

Boru