Proxy war in Ukraine?

[Jehanne]

@Irreligious Atheist

Turn the page -- how do you think that things will turn out?

A lot of people dead, and I'm not willing to predict a Ukrainian victory like many are here.

At a minimum it will all have been a senseless, completely preventable, tragedy. I posted my views in the other thread (that I am no longer reading), but my guess is that Russia will adapt and will slowly, but inexorably, strangle Ukraine over time.

[The Architect Of Fate]

At a minimum it will all have been a senseless, completely preventable, tragedy. I posted my views in the other thread (that I am no longer reading), but my guess is that Russia will adapt and will slowly, but inexorably, strangle Ukraine over time.

Nope, the Russian army will run out of steam and be forced to withdraw. Russia has shown little adaption and has stuck to the same flailing tactics. Now all they have left is terror tactics and that is nothing Ukraine has not already endured.

[Jehanne]

At a minimum it will all have been a senseless, completely preventable, tragedy. I posted my views in the other thread (that I am no longer reading), but my guess is that Russia will adapt and will slowly, but inexorably, strangle Ukraine over time.

Nope, the Russian army will run out of steam and be forced to withdraw. Russia has shown little adaption and has stuck to the same flailing tactics. Now all they have left is terror tactics and that is nothing Ukraine has not already endured.

We talked about this last month. People keep predicting that the war will end, and, it hasn't.

[The Grand Nudger]

Mostly, because that's what wars do, one way or another. You just predicted it would end yourself, though..in a way that no one believes it will.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Nope, the Russian army will run out of steam and be forced to withdraw. Russia has shown little adaption and has stuck to the same flailing tactics. Now all they have left is terror tactics and that is nothing Ukraine has not already endured.

We talked about this last month.  People keep predicting that the war will end, and, it hasn't.

It's ending slowly but surely

[Jehanne]

Mostly, because that's what wars do, one way or another. You just predicted it would end yourself, though..in a way that no one believes it will.

I think that such is a case of desire coloring belief. It's a proxy war that, I believe, will end in Russia's favor. Such is not a case of me wanting Russia to win, only thinking that they will.

[The Grand Nudger]

Certainly alot quicker than I thought..though, to be fair, I didn't really think that russia would...seemingly...swallow it's own lines of bullshit and press this past any point of advantage. That has alot to do with the weapons ukraines recieved, for sure. More anti tank weapons, for example, than there are tanks on the face of the earth. I think the idea that this is a proxy war is a remnant of most of our (as in, the worlds) notions that russia could not be defeated by ukraine, and so we need to come up with an explanation for that which preserves some sense of our having not been completely wrong about a thing. The way we've done it so far is to fail to credit ukraine for what ukraine has done, insisting that, somehow, the us did it.

I think, if we still believe that russia still has any means to gain anything here, that russia would be very interested in knowing what that was, or how. I don't think they intended or expected to cripple their armor, or lose their best troops, or expose their own weaknesses in such a fantastic way.

[The Architect Of Fate]

I think that such is a case of desire coloring belief. It's a proxy war that, I believe, will end in Russia's favor. Such is not a case of me wanting Russia to win, only thinking that they will.

It's not a proxy war (as it's between Russia and Ukraine) and there is no way in hell Russia is going to win

[Jehanne]

Look at the air war. It costs Ukraine more money to shoot down a Russian missile than it costs to make that missile. Last I heard is that 90% of Russian missiles are getting shot down; if they launch 100, ten are making it to their targets.

[The Grand Nudger]

Yes, look at the air war, or..rather, the fact that there isn't one. Here again, the weapons ukraine has recieved have alot to do with russias inability to use it's air force, and also, yes, the poor performance of their missiles. Interesting fact, ukraine also has a ton of those same missiles - but they haven't been lobbing them into russia. If this were a proxy war...and at us behest, that would be a bit difficult to explain.

In fact, much of western support from every country amounts to a requirement that ukraine -not- attack russia..which isn't a great way to win any kind of war.