China & Russia

[The Grand Nudger]

Chinese leadership would have to be smoking the same meth that russian leadership has been on if they think they're going to pull off an invasion.  Taiwan is much better defended than Ukraine was and china is less militarily capable than russia.  It's unclear why china would even want a damaged taiwan.

The People’s Liberation Army is a much fiercer opponent. They are already the N-1 fleet in the world. Their Chengdu J-20 are similar to NATO F-35’s. And the rest of their equipment and army is very modern too.
 

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China can still not move onto Taiwan any time soon. And (you are right) they wouldn’t want that either. If only the microprocessor industry in Taiwan is hit, this will cripple all of their major industries as well.
 
So things are moving in the right direction now:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/business-chin...00171.html
 
Many Western Companies are moving out while they can. And they will probably not repeat the mistake in India. Because much of the know-how of western companies has already been transferred to the Chinese. Now (for instance) they have the cheapest and most effective Electric cars to invade European markets (And the EU is protecting itself by pointing out to the fact that these cars are too heavily subsidized by the Chinese Government).
 
They are also investing very heavily on AI technologies. And they also have this vision of “world domination by 2025”. So if the US was to become busy fighting a war with Iran (before the end of the war in Ukraine) Xi could be tempted to make a move on Taiwan. Similarly, they may be waiting for some sort of mismanagement in the West to compete more decisively with the West in many key sectors (like AI for instance).
 

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But I’m still counting on the rational fabric of their society. I think, they would not act like a destabilizing element in the world like Russia did for so many years. So I’m always in favor of all sorts of diplomatic efforts and enhanced dialogue toward that country.

Just....no.  Yes, I get that's their ad copy, but the reality is far less imposing. For the other thing, never ever count on rational society. GIGO> Rational people supplied with bad facts cannot be expected to arrive at true or useful or decent conclusions even if they do arrive at rational ones.

The us could wage war against the entire earth, and win. Not decently, not righteously, just shitcan all of that. As a consequence of our spending habits and deeply militaristic culture that have long shat on americans themselves, first. Iran pestering us would not, in any way, stop us from annihilating any other opponent. You have to depend on -us- preventing -ourselves- from doing that...and I point you back in the direction of expectations of the rational for at least some hope in that regard. There is no country on earth and no coalition of countries on earth that could prevent the us from achieving military victory. That's the little kernel of truth behind all of these other despots wigging out about a unipolar world. For better and for worse. Political or diplomatic victory (as in outside of military victory) is more elusive..and, arguably, more important.

[Anomalocaris]

I agree right now the PLA is unlikely to be able to successfully subdue Taiwan with a amphibious invasion against opposition,  and currently it is also unlikely to be able maintain an blockade of taiwan for long enough to starve taiwan into submission against determined efforts by the US, Japan and other western aligned states to both break the blockade and dissipate chinese strength by opening fronts at other places sensitive to china.

But i think it is foolish in the long run to think china will refrain from attacking taiwan merely out of consideration of what that would do ttaiwan’s semiconductor or other industry china might want.    The argument that a successful chinese invasion will be killing the goose that lay the golden is far off the mark.    china is not after THAT golden egg.    taiwan’s main significant to china is not what taiwan has but taiwan itself.     taiwan itself is the egg, not what’s in it.    Mainland commentaries and pundits frequently assets that if the stand off between taiwan and china rattle nerves and cause those with skills and determined to not to live under CCP rule to emigrate and thus hollow out taiwan’s economy, that is just fine with china.    china jjust want the land. 

 The CCP sees asserting control over taiwan as the guarantor of the long term legitimacy of the communist party by demonstrating it is the government that fully reversed the century of humiliation starting from the 1840s that saw china lose large number of territories as well as full sovereignty over territory nominally remaining to it.   taiwan is a particular sensitive point for mainland chinese nationalists and communists because 1. of all the major territory lost by the last manchu dynasty, taiwan is the only one which had been held by china before the Manchu dynasty,  2.  Taiwan is the only territory which had been lost to a western power but which china then successfully reconquered from the western power in the 16th century,   and 3.  taiwan is seen as the last piece of unfinished business when communists took over in 1949,  unfinished because of the hostile intervention by the US in 1949.

To the CCP, if taiwan’s semiconductor expertise is lost to china,  that a minor set back which can be reversed in a few years or a decade or two at most.   but gaining control over taiwan will guaranty legitimacy of the communist party in the eyes of nationalists for centuries.   on the other hand,  failing to gain control over taiwan a century after the CCP gained control of rest of china might delegitimize the communist party in the eyes of nationalists as ultimately incapable of fully asserting chinese sovereignty against foreign intervention.

[The Grand Nudger]

I agree-ish, but I do think that sounds alot like slicing off their nose to spite their face..and, if that's the case...fuck it, get it over with and be heroes!

[Anomalocaris]

No, i think they are fairly clear eyed about the relative significance of multiple factors that directly impact both the legitimacy of the ruling class, as well as china’s long term geographic fitness to operate as an superpower with strategic autonomy rivaling that of the US, at least in the pacific.

On the latter point, losing taiwan’s technical and economic resources as well as direct cost of the war to subdue taiwan would also only be a temporary setback for china if the war was ultimately successful, its geostrategic benefit for china would very likely be much more long lasting and significant than that.

[The Grand Nudger]

That's probably where we disagree. I wouldn't call the ruling faction in China clear eyed about this or many other things. If they were, they might actually be the problem that so many right wing nuts say they are. Controlling the ruins of taiwan does not grant them any tangible benefit..especially in light of other easier occupations...., and least of which challenging us hegemony in the pacific.

Taiwan is even easier for the us to annihilate as chinese territory than the mainland......and holding it doesn't prevent the us from launching attacks against the mainland that china simply doesn't have the technological or logistical ability to defend against. At least not now, or for the immediately or easily forseeable future, ofc. We could get weaker, they could stronger, all of that.

To bring it back to something leo said. china has an f-35 analog, but the f-35 is itself dogshit, and a knockoff of dogshit is what...less dogshit? The mic has been wringing their hands about this stuff but recent unscheduled activities don't bear out the dire threat of the chinese military - quite the opposite. They've got limited stocks of bootleg versions of us equipment that are even less capable than the us equipment and a fleet of small water fishing boats with guns bolted on. Good luck with us boomers with that trash. We've already abandoned our own analog progrom for that because it was a foolish waste of money..militarily. Kicking and screaming, ofc, but still.

[Anomalocaris]

j-20 is obviously aimed to be a f22 equivalent, not a f35 equivalent.    there is no evidence the chinese intend to use it for anything other than air superiority.    

Their equivalent of multirole F35 is probably the J35,  which is not even in service yet, and the carrier version of j-35 seems to be prioritized and the land based version hasn’t even been seen yet,  so at least in the beginning J35 probably won’t be built at a very high rate comparable to F35 production.

At least for the next decade,  western 5th generation fighters will heavily out number chinese 5th generation fighters.

[The Grand Nudger]

Right...look, I'm commenting on another's comments, so.... It seems that at least on this we agree, even if we disagree elsewhere. I'm absolutely willing to say that I might have this wrong and the future will prove it. I just don't see china the way that the people I consider alarmists see china, and I don't buy the xenophobes vision of china either as inevitable aggressor or slaughterer.

They have issues. They're not there yet. Their shit is okay...I guess, but comparitively, it sucks. Objectively, they have about a snowballs chance in hell of challenging the us directly..at present.

[Anomalocaris]

The reason why we perceive China as the aggressor is because we believe it is right and proper for us to be able to assert to China what is right and proper for something 100 miles from China and 6000 miles from the U.S, and it is not right and proper for China to tell us to go fuck ourselves.

But deep down we know the basic long term trend is China will likely acquire the strength to tell us to go fuck off in a game which is being played out basically in China’s porch.     But deeper down we fear more than that,  we fear that when she does it could begin a trend which will not end until china is able to assert to us what is right and proper for something 100 miles from the U.S. and 6000 miles from China.

All the bullshit or democracy and dictatorship, rule based world order, and occasional chest thumping are just to make the underlying calculus of fear less transparent.

[The Grand Nudger]

I'm sure there's that perception, but I'm not too worried about who is aggressing in the hypothetical. Nor do I believe that at the bottom of it all there isn't just a calculus of fear. The calculus of destruction simply doesn't favor china right now, imo. They've become something like the soviet union used to be for our defense industry. The boogeyman that gives superficial credibility to huge moneybegs for systems we ultimately opt out of without ever fielding.

China is or could be all kinds of headaches for the us, but not a military one, at least not yet. I don't think that their most effective or efficient path to defeating the us would be military either.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I agree-ish, but I do think that sounds alot like slicing off their nose to spite their face..and, if that's the case...fuck it, get it over with and be heroes!

Even in geopolitics, emotions have a play. The Chinese see Taiwan as as prestige issue, not very different than American views in the Cuban missile crisis.