US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[Mr Greene]

Again, learning about fascism won’t prevent fascists from repeating the mistakes of the past. All it will do is teach them how to be more effective fascists. For these people, ‘Mein Kampf’ isn’t a cautionary tale but an instruction manual.

Boru

I generally view it as novel length rant/tantrum by paedo/incel desperate to blame their own failings on literally everyone else. Usually under the category of 'Lifes' too ****ing short'.

[Ivan Denisovich]

In the book I am referring to Madeleine Albright is also talking about similarities and difference between Hitler and Mussolini, these two and other European dictators like Franco and Salazar, other fascist movements in Europe like Oswald Mosley in the UK and/or things like the “German American Bund” in and even similarities and difference between Communism and fascism.
 
Today I can easily understand how Russia plunged back into Putin after the Yeltsin Era. That’s because, despite huge differences on ideological level, on the level of practice and on the level of consciousness, the two are almost complementary to one another. Methods used by the gestapo and methods used by the Stazi were basically the same. One believed in “Aryan” superhuman the other believed in the “proletariat” superhuman. (I’m not going to summarize the whole book).
 
So how about the “pious” superhuman? If the Aryans and the proletariat have all failed, maybe the pious Mohammedan superhuman could succeed in remodeling this world that is in absolute need of some form of remodeling right?
 
In summary: Not everything in “ordinary” societies are perfect, but strong ideas that are applied excessively will usually only add to the problem instead of resolving it.

You have a great gift for replying to posts without actually addressing points raised in those posts.

Again, learning about fascism won’t prevent fascists from repeating the mistakes of the past. All it will do is teach them how to be more effective fascists. For these people, ‘Mein Kampf’ isn’t a cautionary tale but an instruction manual.

Boru

Learning about fascism could however show people that fascism ain't dead and that it is in fact resurgent.

[Leonardo17]

This military campaign in Iran is still not a complete disaster:
 

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I don’t like these guys either. I don’t like the way this Pete Hegseth talked to the House of Representatives yesterday. I’ve also heard his rhetoric about this war describing it as some sort of “holy war” at the time of Armageddon. This is the exact same rhetoric as Messianic Jews (Netanyahu + the Israeli far right that is a part of his cabinet) and the exact same rhetoric of political Islamists and the IRI (who believe that Armagedon has already started and that Iran + Al Qaida is going to liberate the world from the Anti-Christ who is already among us etc…).
 
So If you listen to these guys you might be tempted to believe that the operation is a complete disaster. And If you don’t (I don’t) you may be more likely to understand the truth:
 
1) 25 Billion dollars spent on this war is a huge amount of money (That’s 120 $ per household in the US) but this sum is still half of what G.W. Bush spent on Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and 2011.
 
2) This was a huge demonstration of force: there were more than 10,000 targets that were hit in Iran. All that the IRI has to do is to survive in order to proclaim victory. But other would be hostile actors like China are now seeing the capacity of the US military power. This means that everything that is not subterranean in Iran is gone.
 
3) The economic blockade is not a chicken game. Yes world economies are suffering. But Iraq is exporting its oil through Syria. Gulf states have pipelines to export their oil through the Red Sea. The UAE has just left the OPEP. So Gas prices will go down considerably as soon as this crisis is over.
    In Iran on the other hand, in the coming weeks or so they will have to completely shut down their oil refineries because they have no were to take them. Things aren’t going to be made easier if the US decides to increase that economic pressure by more airstrikes.
 
So there is this Lose-Lose situation. But if you add everything up, the regime in Iran will lose more than the world as a whole. It seems to me that it will even lose more than the Trump administration as well.
 
So despite everything that everyone knows he is, I have a feeling that the US president is still very well advised, even in the most irresponsible decisions he is making.
 

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To sum up: The world will be in a better situation when all of this is over. The IRI will be in an even more untenable position when all of this is over.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

 25 Billion dollars spent on this war is a huge amount of money (That’s 120 $ per household in the US) but this sum is still half of what G.W. Bush spent on Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and 2011.

I think we can add ‘simple arithmetic’ to the list of things you don’t quite grasp.

Boru

[Paleophyte]

This military campaign in Iran is still not a complete disaster:

By what metric is it not a total cluster fuck? It has utterly failed to achieve any of its stated objectives for the low, low price of destabilizing the global economy. It has no support in the US population, the US Congress, or any international venue. It's an unnecessary war that nobody wanted and from which there appears to be no escape.
 

1) 25 Billion dollars spent on this war is a huge amount of money (That’s 120 $ per household in the US) but this sum is still half of what G.W. Bush spent on Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and 2011.

Let me rephrase that so it penetrates the rose-coloured glasses that you've been smoking. They've shat away 25 billion dollars for nothing.

2) This was a huge demonstration of force: there were more than 10,000 targets that were hit in Iran. All that the IRI has to do is to survive in order to proclaim victory. But other would be hostile actors like China are now seeing the capacity of the US military power. This means that everything that is not subterranean in Iran is gone.

So you're telling me that the US has hit Iran as hard as it can and Iran still has them by the balls? You're right, I'm sure that China's watching that epic failure of Uhmerican Might.

3) The economic blockade is not a chicken game.

You're right, it isn't. Iran has no reason to flinch. There's an old saying that applies. Don't play chicken with a train.

So despite everything that everyone knows he is, I have a feeling that the US president is still very well advised, even in the most irresponsible decisions he is making.

You may be incurably naive. Who the utter fuck do you think that orange moron is listening to? Hegseth? Rubio? Leavitt? Come on Leo, give us a prediction for the end of May. Mine is that this idiocy will still be stalemated. Trump can't back down and he can't move forward. He's a coward with no moves, and he's fukt. That means higher gas prices and petroleum shortages that will start to really bite. If we're lucky. If not, he'll do something really dangerous. Never back a coward into a corner. What are your predictions? Sunshine and roses delivered from the belly of a B-52?

[Deesse23]

1) 25 Billion dollars spent on this war is a huge amount of money (That’s 120 $ per household in the US) but this sum is still half of what G.W. Bush spent on Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and 2011.

25bn in a few weeks vs 8 years. I see a clear loser here, and its not Bush.

2) This was a huge demonstration of force: there were more than 10,000 targets that were hit in Iran. All that the IRI has to do is to survive in order to proclaim victory. But other would be hostile actors like China are now seeing the capacity of the US military power. This means that everything that is not subterranean in Iran is gone.

So you're telling me that the US has hit Iran as hard as it can and Iran still has them by the balls? You're right, I'm sure that China's watching that epic failure of Uhmerican Might.

What China has seen:
US significantly depleting its hightech missile stockpiles, just like Russia did, for absolutely not good reason. It will take years to re-arm.
US not being able to do anything against iranian blockade of Streets of Hormuz
Mullahs still 100% in control of Iran
US having no support whatsoever, even from its closest allies. It keeps alienating those who still support it even in the slightest way. Merz called out Trump for having no exit strategy for Iran. Trump in return badmouthing Merz and threatening to pull out US troops from Germany, weakening US strategic position in Europe.
1 US carrier had to be sent home for refit because...?
No US boots on the ground in Iran

I bet Xi is shivering in fear

So despite everything that everyone knows he is, I have a feeling that the US president is still very well advised, even in the most irresponsible decisions he is making.

You may be incurably naive. Who the utter fuck do you think that orange moron is listening to? Hegseth? Rubio? Leavitt? Come on Leo, give us a prediction for the end of May. Mine is that this idiocy will still be stalemated. Trump can't back down and he can't move forward. He's a coward with no moves, and he's fukt. That means higher gas prices and petroleum shortages that will start to really bite. If we're lucky. If not, he'll do something really dangerous. Never back a coward into a corner. What are your predictions? Sunshine and roses delivered from the belly of a B-52?

Well advised?
First of all he takes no advice, from anyone, ever. Under which rock was Leonardo hiding in the past 10y? Also: what makes him think his "advisors" (lackeys) are anything other than utterly incompetent? His secretary of war is an alcoholic who cant tell the Bible from Quentin Tarantino, literally.

[Ivan Denisovich]

By what metric is it not a total cluster fuck? It has utterly failed to achieve any of its stated objectives for the low, low price of destabilizing the global economy. It has no support in the US population, the US Congress, or any international venue. It's an unnecessary war that nobody wanted and from which there appears to be no escape.

By metric that Leo hates Iran and thus any action against it is at least somewhat successful by default. Needles to say it is idiotic scale.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

You have a great gift for replying to posts without actually addressing points raised in those posts.

Again, learning about fascism won’t prevent fascists from repeating the mistakes of the past. All it will do is teach them how to be more effective fascists. For these people, ‘Mein Kampf’ isn’t a cautionary tale but an instruction manual.

Boru

Learning about fascism could however show people that fascism ain't dead and that it is in fact resurgent.

Sure, that would be the result for most people. My point was that fascists would glory in the resurgence of fascism.

Boru

[Ivan Denisovich]

Learning about fascism could however show people that fascism ain't dead and that it is in fact resurgent.

Sure, that would be the result for most people. My point was that fascists would glory in the resurgence of fascism.

Boru

Till the Night of the Long Knives, Dachau or T4. Though those who would survive it would still cheer for this idiotic system I guess, or say that idea was good but execution failed.

[Leonardo17]

Paleophyte:
 

“You may be incurably naive. Who the utter fuck do you think that orange moron is listening to? Hegseth? Rubio? Leavitt? Come on Leo, give us a prediction for the end of May. Mine is that this idiocy will still be stalemated. Trump can't back down and he can't move forward. He's a coward with no moves, and he's fukt. That means higher gas prices and petroleum shortages that will start to really bite. If we're lucky. If not, he'll do something really dangerous. Never back a coward into a corner. What are your predictions? Sunshine and roses delivered from the belly of a B-52?”

 
- Just like in the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro, I think that military advisors to D. Trump are doing a pretty good job. All of D. Trump’s cabinet are people who don’t even know how to make a public speech if you ask me. Until now, I haven’t even had time to listen to them. I won’t always listen to someone just because he or she is on TV.
 
You can compare this to Dr. Fauci during the Covid crisis. While D. Trump made speeches about injecting Laundry Bleach into people’s lungs, Dr. Fauci was still able to make the right decisions and issue correct warnings to the general public.
 

Desse23:
 
I do not disagree with most of the things you are saying. For instance D. Trmp wants to pull back his troops in Europe. No European country has a problem with that. But how is the US supposed to project power into the Middle-East and beyond without these military bases.
 
This whole D. Trump issue is simply exhausting.
 

Ivan Denisovich:
 
- The IRI is not even a good neighbor to other countries in the region. They are being a good neighbor to stronger neighbors (like us) but even with us, it has been decades since they have been trying to export their theocratic regime to us secular and somehow democratic people by supporting religious sects and other underground political Islamist movements etc. So no one eventually like them, including the Iranian people itself.
 
Also: I don’t believe in Iranian military strategy either. See this article on their air-force:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran...17813.html
 
I don’t believe Iran has any ground force at this point either. The Kurds cannot march into Teheran with their AK-47’s. Israel’s already overstretched army cannot do anything like that either. But If D. Trump decided to undertake something in the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan, the whole thing would fall within days. But that’s only my prediction and I’m not a military expert.
 
Right now Iran seems pretty confident it can win the whole thing by terrorizing people with drones, missiles and proxy groups who also basically operate with missiles and drone and terrorist activities whenever they can.
 
To me this is not even military strategy. Ordinary countries would not even have military academies if things were that simple.
 
So on a personal level and despite the poor leadership of D. Trump and his cabinet, I don’t expect Iran to “win” in any area.
 
See: when you cannot export oil and have to shut down your oil wells it is very difficult to reopen these wells after a month or two. For a country that only produces oil and natural gas thanks to the Mullahs, this is likely to have huge impacts on the economy even if the US sanction where to be lifted.
 
So I am not saying this is going to work well for D. Trump and his cabinet. I’m only saying that eventually, it’s not going to work for the Revolutionary Guards either