Maybe the most basic lesson from the Iraq invasion of 2001, taught countless times throughout history and yet must be relearned each time and almost always flippantly forgotten before next when it can be put to use, is the war almost never go the way those optimistic enough to advocate for it thinks it will.

Furthermore, seemly minor and secondary consequences of the war, as well as the reactions of seemingly marginal or outside players that were only given trivial attention during planning, have a way of ballooning up until its long term impact is all out of proportion with its apparent insignificance at the beginning, and eventually become the main lasting legacy of the war, to the detriment of the interests of those that eagerly ambraced the war in the beginning.

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(August 9, 2017 at 3:06 pm)bennyboy Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 1:13 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote: A harmless tub of hot air? Are you fucking kidding?!?

Tell that to the people of Seoul. I'm sure they can explain the significance of 15,000-odd artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

He can tell that to me, too, since I live in Seoul.

A war is likely to be very bad.  I SUSPECT that America will work their air magic and eliminate most targets within a week.  However, there's a real possibility for things to go horribly wrong if the regime is threatened.

There is a question to ask though: can America afford to play a wait-and-see game with Kim?  In my opinion, the right move FOR AMERICA seems to be to go in now, while the risk of major catastrophe for the States is still relatively small.  What happens in 20 years when the place is bristling with nukes, and N. Korean subs are patrolling the Pacific and so on?  Not a pleasant thought.

It would be the right move if South Korea is happy to absorb a couple of retaliatory nukes and China will accept American forces on the Yalu.

(August 9, 2017 at 12:45 pm)Brian37 Wrote:

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(August 9, 2017 at 12:25 pm)Dropship Wrote: We can bet that Don and his Generals have got a map like this with the sites marked down for annihilation by cruise missile and drone strikes to draw Kim's teeth.
Without nukes in his toybox Kim will be just a harmless tub of hot air..
PS- I wouldn't put it past Kim to gift some nuke warheads to ISIS and other terror groups, so the sooner he's neutralised the better..

Um no and just NO.
A conventional war would still cause great death not just in NK but in SK too. And again, China doesn't want a refugee problem due to that, nor do they want a unified western South Korea next to their border. 
Even a conventional war would cause mass death. If you think two simple air strikes will cause his population to overthrow Kim, you are fooling yourself.

I never mentioned any need for a conventional war!
Kim's "teeth" are his nuclear missiles, so all Don needs to do is to draw those teeth by knocking out the missile launch sites with cruise missile and drone strikes, there's no need to send in US troops to do it..

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(August 9, 2017 at 1:13 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:25 pm)Dropship Wrote: We can bet that Don and his Generals have got a map like this with the sites marked down for annihilation by cruise missile and drone strikes to draw Kim's teeth.
Without nukes in his toybox Kim will be just a harmless tub of hot air..

A harmless tub of hot air? Are you fucking kidding?!?
Tell that to the people of Seoul. I'm sure they can explain the significance of 15,000-odd artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

Kim's just an overgrown pouting schoolboy but I think he's just about got the sense to know that if he uses his toys he'll quickly lose the lot as Don retaliates..

(August 9, 2017 at 3:40 pm)Dropship Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:45 pm)Brian37 Wrote:

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Um no and just NO.
A conventional war would still cause great death not just in NK but in SK too. And again, China doesn't want a refugee problem due to that, nor do they want a unified western South Korea next to their border. 
Even a conventional war would cause mass death. If you think two simple air strikes will cause his population to overthrow Kim, you are fooling yourself.

I never mentioned any need for a conventional war!
Kim's "teeth" are his nuclear missiles, so all Don needs to do is to draw those teeth by knocking out the missile launch sites with cruise missile and drone strikes, there's no need to send in US troops to do it..

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(August 9, 2017 at 1:13 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote: A harmless tub of hot air? Are you fucking kidding?!?
Tell that to the people of Seoul. I'm sure they can explain the significance of 15,000-odd artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

Kim's just an overgrown pouting schoolboy but I think he's just about got the sense to know that if he uses his toys he'll quickly lose the lot as Don retaliates..

Because baiting them into invading the south is a smart idea, right?

I mean, we'd finally get a unified Korea, i guess.

(August 9, 2017 at 11:25 am)Anomalocaris Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 10:58 am)Rev. Rye Wrote: You know, given that the US has been stockpiling nuclear weapons for over 70 years and haven't actually used them since August 9, 1945 (72 years ago today, by an extraordinary coincidence), I don't think there will likely be much of a "use it or lose it" situation.

The use it or Lose it applies to Kim.  He could certainly face the possibility of losing it in the following manner:

1. Extreme pressure from outside sufficient to crumble his regime trying to force him to give it up
2. Commando raids trying to take it from him
3. redemptive air or missile raids trying to blow his up
4. His country is invaded and the invader is trying to take it from him
5. His own people turn on him and threaten to take the control of the weapons from him
6. His rule falters and he is in danger of not being able to control his weapons

When these situation arise and his loss of control over his weapons seems imminent, I have no doubt he will use all his nuclear weapons.

(August 9, 2017 at 3:40 pm)Dropship Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:45 pm)Brian37 Wrote:

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Um no and just NO.
A conventional war would still cause great death not just in NK but in SK too. And again, China doesn't want a refugee problem due to that, nor do they want a unified western South Korea next to their border. 
Even a conventional war would cause mass death. If you think two simple air strikes will cause his population to overthrow Kim, you are fooling yourself.

I never mentioned any need for a conventional war!
Kim's "teeth" are his nuclear missiles, so all Don needs to do is to draw those teeth by knocking out the missile launch sites with cruise missile and drone strikes, there's no need to send in US troops to do it..

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(August 9, 2017 at 1:13 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote: A harmless tub of hot air? Are you fucking kidding?!?
Tell that to the people of Seoul. I'm sure they can explain the significance of 15,000-odd artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

Kim's just an overgrown pouting schoolboy but I think he's just about got the sense to know that if he uses his toys he'll quickly lose the lot as Don retaliates..

You can be very assured that in a totalitarian despot ruthless and paranoid enough to starve its citizens in order to devote resources to perfecting a nuclear weapon would also have devoted enough resources to ensure the nuclear arsenal is adaquately concealed, hardened, dispersed and and survivable such that the US would be kidding itself if it thought it could have any reasonable chance of taking most of it out through surgical strikes.

If by some miracle we manage to physically occupy all of North Korea, I would bet 100 to 1 we would still not be able to find many of the nukes he stashed away.

In fact, I am confident that he had a few nukes stashed in such a way that if North Korea were to fall and he loses all ability to deliver his remaining nukes using conventional means, he would be able to still smuggle those nukes out of North Korea and arrange for them to fall into the hands of some anti-western terrorist group.

(August 9, 2017 at 4:31 pm)Jello Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 3:40 pm)Dropship Wrote: I never mentioned any need for a conventional war!
Kim's "teeth" are his nuclear missiles, so all Don needs to do is to draw those teeth by knocking out the missile launch sites with cruise missile and drone strikes, there's no need to send in US troops to do it..

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Kim's just an overgrown pouting schoolboy but I think he's just about got the sense to know that if he uses his toys he'll quickly lose the lot as Don retaliates..

Because baiting them into invading the south is a smart idea, right?

I mean, we'd finally get a unified Korea, i guess.

Yea um no, that is certainly what the far right Dirty Harry warhawks think yes. But I agree, it would not be that simple for the reasons I stated in prior posts. 

A conventional war would still require some agreement between America and China as to who gets the leftovers even if nukes dont get shot off. China isn't going to allow a unified western style Korea exist at it's border, and South Korea doesn't want a Chinese takeover ending at the DMZ.  

Even a conventional war, or even simple air strikes even without boots on the ground will trigger a power vacuum fight and that will get bloody even without nukes. Point being, there are no good options for Trump outside what sanctions and diplomacy.

It would never happen nor would I want it to happen, but ultimately the best case scenario would to tell China they can have North Korea in exchange for a more equal trade deal. Kim hears this shit he would be forced to behave because China while they are closer allies are like America getting tired of the Kim family bullshit. That would be the quickest way to put Un in his place verbally, but again, the reality is that will never happen.

(August 9, 2017 at 4:52 pm)Brian37 Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 4:31 pm)Jello Wrote: Because baiting them into invading the south is a smart idea, right?

I mean, we'd finally get a unified Korea, i guess.

Yea um no, that is certainly what the far right Dirty Harry warhawks think yes. But I agree, it would not be that simple for the reasons I stated in prior posts. 

A conventional war would still require some agreement between America and China as to who gets the leftovers even if nukes dont get shot off. China isn't going to allow a unified western style Korea exist at it's border, and South Korea doesn't want a Chinese takeover ending at the DNC. 

Even a conventional war, or even simple air strikes even without boots on the ground will trigger a power vacuum fight and that will get bloody even without nukes. Point being, there are no good options for Trump outside what sanctions and diplomacy.

Could probably get away with a slight territorial concession on the north side, to appease china, but i doubt it'd be small enough that the South would like it.

(August 9, 2017 at 4:55 pm)Jello Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 4:52 pm)Brian37 Wrote: Yea um no, that is certainly what the far right Dirty Harry warhawks think yes. But I agree, it would not be that simple for the reasons I stated in prior posts. 

A conventional war would still require some agreement between America and China as to who gets the leftovers even if nukes dont get shot off. China isn't going to allow a unified western style Korea exist at it's border, and South Korea doesn't want a Chinese takeover ending at the DNC. 

Even a conventional war, or even simple air strikes even without boots on the ground will trigger a power vacuum fight and that will get bloody even without nukes. Point being, there are no good options for Trump outside what sanctions and diplomacy.

Could probably get away with a slight territorial concession on the north side, to appease china, but i doubt it'd be small enough that the South would like it.

I think these are pleasant speculations that does not account for realities on the ground.

Korea and china is now nicely demarcated by the Yalu river. It's a natural, clear cut, defensible border. It would be stupid for china to take some meaningless token pieces of North Korean territory on the other side of the Yalu, jutting into a sea of Koreans that would only leads to perpetual territorial disputes with a unified Korea.

If China is to be appeased by territory concession, it would have to be a such piece of territory with such economic and natural resources as to be worth perpetual hostility with not insignificant neighbor.

It would be a cold day in hell before South Korea would agree to cede such a valuable piece of territory to china just to get past the current crisis.

My main concern with any potential war is that it will go the same way as the "war on terror" under Bush.

"The enemy is clearly in North Korea. Let's invade Indonesia while we're at it!"

(August 9, 2017 at 5:13 pm)The Valkyrie Wrote: My main concern with any potential war is that it will go the same way as the "war on terror" under Bush.

"The enemy is clearly in North Korea.  Let's invade Indonesia while we're at it!"

Yes, a typo in a tweet and another country bites the dust.

Just imagine a bunch of 4 star generals sitting in front of the big board: "Where is covfefe and is it in range of the B-52?"

(August 9, 2017 at 3:40 pm)Dropship Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:45 pm)Brian37 Wrote:

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Um no and just NO.
A conventional war would still cause great death not just in NK but in SK too. And again, China doesn't want a refugee problem due to that, nor do they want a unified western South Korea next to their border. 
Even a conventional war would cause mass death. If you think two simple air strikes will cause his population to overthrow Kim, you are fooling yourself.

I never mentioned any need for a conventional war!
Kim's "teeth" are his nuclear missiles, so all Don needs to do is to draw those teeth by knocking out the missile launch sites with cruise missile and drone strikes, there's no need to send in US troops to do it..

---

(August 9, 2017 at 1:13 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote: A harmless tub of hot air? Are you fucking kidding?!?
Tell that to the people of Seoul. I'm sure they can explain the significance of 15,000-odd artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

Kim's just an overgrown pouting schoolboy but I think he's just about got the sense to know that if he uses his toys he'll quickly lose the lot as Don retaliates..

No shit, Einstein. That's the point. N. Korea has built for itself a credible military threat to deploy in the event that they are attacked and invaded. Kim has no intention of launching a preemptive attack on S. Korea, the U.S., or Japan because that would spell the end of his regime. Looked at from the vantage point of a despot desperate to maintain his grip on power, the N. Korean military buildup and nuclear program is a rational move. This has always been about preserving the status quo, his sabre rattling notwithstanding. To dismiss Kim as irrational or an 'overgrown pouting schoolboy' is to completely miss the point.

He's ruthless and brutal and the world would be better off without him, but that doesn't make him a loose cannon.