(January 14, 2024 at 2:47 pm)ShinyCrystals Wrote: So, I was wondering; Russia has a higher population than Ukraine, but still, it kinda seems to me (but not completely) that Russia is losing troops fast, and is giving little training when they recruit new troops for the war. So, how do you you all think this war of attrition thing will end for Russia? I mean, even should Russia win, it will be costly. If they continue what they are doing now, they will lose a lot of lives and resources, so the war can't be that beneficial for them.

What do you all think, though?

Russia’s population is bigger. + There are many people living in extreme poverty in can mobilize to send to Ukraine. It has plenty of cash thanks to oil revenues. So it can keep using mercenaries from Nepal, Libya, Africa etc. + It’s not a democracy. Mothers + Wives of Russian soldiers are mobilizing but this doesn’t mean anything in a fake democracy.
 

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For Ukraine it’s all different. 650,000 men have fled the country in order to avoid conscription. Some are enrolling in (state-financed) Universities to avoid conscription. Some are paying up to 3000 $ to doctors in order to avoid conscription. Like all ex-communist countries, corruption is huge.
   There is this very patriotic freedom-loving part of population (even women are volunteering for the army), and then there is this group of completely selfish / not really caring group of people. And relatives of current soldiers want their sons-husbands-brothers to come back and send other people to the front. Which Zellensky is unable to do (because he is still fighting the second greatest army of the world).
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turn-now-ukra...43710.html
 

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In WWI / WWII, everyone was conscripted, no one could return before the very end of the conflict. So my answer to this question is “I don’t know”.
 
But still it’s rather uncool to go and create a new life in Germany while others there are giving their lives in order to maintain their freedom

(January 16, 2024 at 7:43 am)Leonardo17 Wrote:

(January 14, 2024 at 2:47 pm)ShinyCrystals Wrote: So, I was wondering; Russia has a higher population than Ukraine, but still, it kinda seems to me (but not completely) that Russia is losing troops fast, and is giving little training when they recruit new troops for the war. So, how do you you all think this war of attrition thing will end for Russia? I mean, even should Russia win, it will be costly. If they continue what they are doing now, they will lose a lot of lives and resources, so the war can't be that beneficial for them.

What do you all think, though?

Russia’s population is bigger. + There are many people living in extreme poverty in can mobilize to send to Ukraine. It has plenty of cash thanks to oil revenues. So it can keep using mercenaries from Nepal, Libya, Africa etc. + It’s not a democracy. Mothers + Wives of Russian soldiers are mobilizing but this doesn’t mean anything in a fake democracy.
 

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For Ukraine it’s all different. 650,000 men have fled the country in order to avoid conscription. Some are enrolling in (state-financed) Universities to avoid conscription. Some are paying up to 3000 $ to doctors in order to avoid conscription. Like all ex-communist countries, corruption is huge.
   There is this very patriotic freedom-loving part of population (even women are volunteering for the army), and then there is this group of completely selfish / not really caring group of people. And relatives of current soldiers want their sons-husbands-brothers to come back and send other people to the front. Which Zellensky is unable to do (because he is still fighting the second greatest army of the world).
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turn-now-ukra...43710.html
 

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In WWI / WWII, everyone was conscripted, no one could return before the very end of the conflict. So my answer to this question is “I don’t know”.
 
But still it’s rather uncool to go and create a new life in Germany while others there are giving their lives in order to maintain their freedom

Self-preservation is uncool?

Not everyone is cut out to be a soldier.

(January 16, 2024 at 8:06 am)arewethereyet Wrote:

(January 16, 2024 at 7:43 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: Russia’s population is bigger. + There are many people living in extreme poverty in can mobilize to send to Ukraine. It has plenty of cash thanks to oil revenues. So it can keep using mercenaries from Nepal, Libya, Africa etc. + It’s not a democracy. Mothers + Wives of Russian soldiers are mobilizing but this doesn’t mean anything in a fake democracy.
 

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For Ukraine it’s all different. 650,000 men have fled the country in order to avoid conscription. Some are enrolling in (state-financed) Universities to avoid conscription. Some are paying up to 3000 $ to doctors in order to avoid conscription. Like all ex-communist countries, corruption is huge.
   There is this very patriotic freedom-loving part of population (even women are volunteering for the army), and then there is this group of completely selfish / not really caring group of people. And relatives of current soldiers want their sons-husbands-brothers to come back and send other people to the front. Which Zellensky is unable to do (because he is still fighting the second greatest army of the world).
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turn-now-ukra...43710.html
 

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In WWI / WWII, everyone was conscripted, no one could return before the very end of the conflict. So my answer to this question is “I don’t know”.
 
But still it’s rather uncool to go and create a new life in Germany while others there are giving their lives in order to maintain their freedom

Self-preservation is uncool?

Not everyone is cut out to be a soldier.

In my military culture that was something I heard a lot. “If I am doing it, than so will you!”. So I remember having those self-preservation tendencies at least in the beginning of my days as a conscript. But that’s one of the first thing they are teaching you. The first message is “You are not different than anyone else”.

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Anyway, I would flee to anywhere I could if I was a Russian. I don’t think I would have joined in any of the US’s recent wars either if I was American. But let me tell you this:
 
In the early days of WWI Kemal Ataturk had to face his soldiers who has lost all their hope and were living in deplorable condition. And he asked them one by one “Where are you from?”, “You, Where are you from?”. And the soldiers answered one by one. And he told them “You, your household will cease to exist”, and “You, your household will also be no-more” etc. Than he told them “I promise you misery, I promise you hardship, I promise you death, that’s the only thing you will get from me. So are you willing to fight with me?” (And the Soldiers were all once again motivated despite the very difficult of the circumstance of the Ottoman Army in WWI).
 
So nothing come for free right? Especially a lifestyle that is based on self-determination rather than the whims of some autocrat who was simply designated by the ruling oligarchy who sees itself as “better” than anyone else.

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So I don’t know. I’m not talking about women and children. But that is a sign of low energy if you are able to be Ukrainian and just watch all of it on TV.
 
(That’s my personal view of course)

Volunteer units in an all volunteer force go the other way with it. Rightly or wrongly. You are special. You're certainly worth more than dozens of hesitant conscripts who would rather be anywhere else. You're not a burger flipper forced onto a bus, you're a professional soldier. That's what you do. Ukraine had to overcome their own conscript mindset at the outset of the war. Jut like russia, ukraines military was a hallowed out shell. Service wasn't honorable - it wasn't sexy. It was for suckers and dum dums and grifters. If ukraine had to go to war with their pre-2014 army this probably would be all over already. One of the main avenues of domestic criticism of zelensky before the invasion was that he wasn't hooah enough, wasn't tough enough, wasn't service minded enough. That he would seek to accommodate. Mostly because he tried to do exactly that.

Yet another thing master strategist putin couldn't see coming. I guess the idea that ukranians would rise up against an invader is something so far outside of his own expectations for his own people that the thought never crossed his mind. Sure as shit, nobody lifted a finger to stop prigos march on moscow.

(January 16, 2024 at 9:37 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Volunteer units in an all volunteer force go the other way with it.  Rightly or wrongly.  You are special.  You're certainly worth more than dozens of hesitant conscripts who would rather be anywhere else.  You're not a burger flipper forced onto a bus, you're a professional soldier.  That's what you do.  Ukraine had to overcome their own conscript mindset at the outset of the war.  Jut like russia, ukraines military was a hallowed out shell.  Service wasn't honorable - it wasn't sexy.  It was for suckers and dum dums and grifters.  If ukraine had to go to war with their pre-2014 army this probably would be all over already.  One of the main avenues of domestic criticism of zelensky before the invasion was that he wasn't hooah enough, wasn't tough enough, wasn't service minded enough.  That he would seek to accommodate.  Mostly because he tried to do exactly that.

Yet another thing master strategist putin couldn't see coming.  I guess the idea that ukranians would rise up against an invader is something so far outside of his own expectations for his own people that the thought never crossed his mind.  Sure as shit, nobody lifted a finger to stop prigos march on moscow.

... and this too goes into the morale and motivational differences I mentioned above.

Quote:Jan 16 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday that it was increasingly apparent to the world that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's plan to resolve the nearly two-year war had no hope of succeeding and dismissed meetings devoted to it as "pointless and harmful".

The fourth in a series of meetings bringing together officials from several dozen countries - but not Russia - was held this week in Davos. A commentary on the Russian Foreign Ministry's website said the meeting had exposed differences between participants and produced no increase in support for the proposals.

"There is a growing understanding that no overall, fair and sustainable peace can be achieved by focusing on the ultimatum of the 'Zelenskiy formula,'" the commentary said.

"All such meetings ... including the Davos gathering and those to follow it, are pointless and harmful for settling the Ukrainian crisis."

Russia is pointedly not invited to the meetings centred on Zelenskiy's peace plan, which calls for withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, recognition of its 1991 post-Soviet borders and a mechanism to bring Moscow to account.

Zelenskiy has ruled out talks with Moscow while Russian troops remain in the country.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...024-01-16/

(January 16, 2024 at 9:37 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Volunteer units in an all volunteer force go the other way with it.  Rightly or wrongly.  You are special.  You're certainly worth more than dozens of hesitant conscripts who would rather be anywhere else.  You're not a burger flipper forced onto a bus, you're a professional soldier.  That's what you do.  Ukraine had to overcome their own conscript mindset at the outset of the war.  Jut like russia, ukraines military was a hallowed out shell.  Service wasn't honorable - it wasn't sexy.  It was for suckers and dum dums and grifters.  If ukraine had to go to war with their pre-2014 army this probably would be all over already.  One of the main avenues of domestic criticism of zelensky before the invasion was that he wasn't hooah enough, wasn't tough enough, wasn't service minded enough.  That he would seek to accommodate.  Mostly because he tried to do exactly that.

Yet another thing master strategist putin couldn't see coming.  I guess the idea that ukranians would rise up against an invader is something so far outside of his own expectations for his own people that the thought never crossed his mind.  Sure as shit, nobody lifted a finger to stop prigos march on moscow.

On the second paragraph: I was in a NATO training unit during some part of my military service. We had Georgian + Azerbaijani units training with us (infantryman mostly). So I know a little about how spirited they are. These are countries who had (and that’s already 20 years ago) newly gained their independence. So they have this spirit of nationhood that is very alive in comparison to older self-ruling nations like ourselves.
 

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So when they invaded Ukraine, I knew there was going to be resistance. But I expected to be another Syria or Chechenia-like situation, with all of us having to watch for a year or so how brutal force has the ability to crush people with more noble aspirations.
 
Also: Barrack Obama is said to have been sending his GI’s during the Syria conflict and have renounced to it at the very last moment. The French-German etc. are said to have been ready to support him but that he renounced at the very last moment. Instead he seems to have made some strategic decision which seem to have included Ukraine so that Ukrainians (this time) were completely prepared for what they knew was coming.
 

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So this whole work of preparation seems to have been done very carefully and that’s probably why we won’t have a WWIII this time.

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Also:

I found a nice video on the delivery of F-16’s to Ukraine. There is going to be a fleet of around 80 F-16’s at some time in the second half of 2024.





 
My problem is with that number. Of course there are issues of maintenance + weapons systems that work with these aircrafts (like smother airfield surfaces – Ukrainian Su-27’s and Mig Airplanes can take off from rougher and less maintained airfields). Also they will need a whole new logistical army to keep these plains operational. And these 80 airplanes will probably end Russian air-superiority. Still they will need more of them in order to break Russian defences in spring 2024.
 
Still, a typical NATO country has about 200 of these airplanes. Countries like the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway are sort of “getting rid of them” to switch to next generation fighters like the Eurofighter, F-35, French Mirage / Raffales  airplanes or Swedish JAS 39 Gripens.
 
My only worry is that these guys are working in concert. China is pushing on Taiwan, Iran is pushing on Israel and Russia is messing with Georgia, Moldova + Ukraine. So decreasing the number of these proxy-wars might be beneficial to us all.
 
 

(January 16, 2024 at 8:19 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

Quote:Jan 16 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday that it was increasingly apparent to the world that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's plan to resolve the nearly two-year war had no hope of succeeding and dismissed meetings devoted to it as "pointless and harmful".

The fourth in a series of meetings bringing together officials from several dozen countries - but not Russia - was held this week in Davos. A commentary on the Russian Foreign Ministry's website said the meeting had exposed differences between participants and produced no increase in support for the proposals.

"There is a growing understanding that no overall, fair and sustainable peace can be achieved by focusing on the ultimatum of the 'Zelenskiy formula,'" the commentary said.

"All such meetings ... including the Davos gathering and those to follow it, are pointless and harmful for settling the Ukrainian crisis."

Russia is pointedly not invited to the meetings centred on Zelenskiy's peace plan, which calls for withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, recognition of its 1991 post-Soviet borders and a mechanism to bring Moscow to account.

Zelenskiy has ruled out talks with Moscow while Russian troops remain in the country.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...024-01-16/

Putin on peace negotiations with Ukraine: "it is impossible to negotiate what we've conquered during last 2 years"
I am sure he misspoke and meant "liberated" or "denazified".
I am also sure that all the Ukrainians (whom Putin has NOT liberated and/or denazified yet) will be very disappointed about his latest statement. How can he leave them hanging out to dry like this?

Russia doesn't have air superiority for the f16s to take.

It is very clear that Putin has a pan-slavism fantasy to project. Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Belarus, etc. are not nearly as valuable as Ukrainian soil, but Russia still maintains very good relationships with said countries (except Ukraine) because of the pan-slavism agenda that is embedded within the silovik circle-jerk. Aleksandr Dugin is a major influential figure for Putin, and is more than likely why Dugin's daughter was targeted.

It's a matter of living under Ukrainian corruption, or Russian corruption.