Russia and Ukraine

[The Architect Of Fate]

Armchair generaling time.  Western weapons are filtering in, and ukranian crews are just now either finishing training or about to.  With the warm winter the mud never went away and it's estimated that conditions wont be amenable to a ca assault until sometime between mid april and late may.  It's feasible that limited and low risk actions will occur in the interim..if, for no other reason, than live fire training for the new crews.  What low hanging fruit do we think ukraine has a mind to snatch leading up to the crimean beach party this summer?

My money is on line of contact and artillery overwatch along the m14, where alot of the nightly ukranian strikes have been occurring for the past few weeks.  Runs from rostov through mariupol and melitipol - along the narrow land bridge to the occupied south, opposite shore from ukraines latest mass drone attack.  Crucially, it's good terrain for vehicles with lots of road web and isn't choked in mud and is far away from where russia has concentrated the majority of it;s troops with no convenient way to reposition quickly or unharrased, every inch already within the range of ukranian artillery.  OTOH, it's in range of russian naval forces.  An interruption anywhere along that line cuts crimea off from ground resupply outside of the kerch straight bridge.  I suppose it's so obvious that we'd expect russia to have some sort of plan - but it's only so obvious because russia is in a seriously bad position there.

I've long thought that to be the most useful axis. I think that is a major objective deserving of a full effort. Reaching the coast may put the Ukrainians in range of the Russian navy, but it also puts the Azov Sea under Ukrainian missiles. They would also be able to attack the Kerch bridge with their naval drones, and perhaps even drop a full span. Such a move reaps all the benefits you mention, and let's face it, the loss of Crimea would almost certainly follow, dooming Russia's war aims once and for all.

I think while waiting for the ground to dry up, the Ukrainians should start working troops in the north to flank the Russians at Bakhmut. Posing a threat there to them -- with their troops worn out, combat power eroded, and morale apparently in the shitter -- would not only make some military sense, it would also prep the ground for a descent from the north, which would keep the Russians guessing about which shoe is going to drop where, just as in August when the Ukrainians made lots of noise about the south but then unleashed the eastern offensive with its terrific results.

My two cents, worth every penny you've paid for it.

Indeed the time for the next act is at hand. I thank spring will shift the momentum back to Ukraine on offense and maybe even eventually Crimea. A victory there would be a serious nail in Russia's coffin. I think it's going to be a bad spring for the Russians staged there.

[The Grand Nudger]

To give some perspective to people who aren't junkies - the area being discussed is 3x wider than it is deep (using the coast as our frame of reference) with glocs along the 3x span currently held by ukraine and the terminus (at the x to crimea) @ 300m from uncontested russian borders. A single tank of fuel in any western mbt or ifv can make that run to the coast (and back) multiple times. This was the main limitation in their fall offensive - not russian defense..which was nonexistent even though russia had many more troops stationed along that front than they do along the southern approach. They took everything their fuel lines would easily allow for. Roughly 90 minutes from the word go forward elements in ifvs and armor support in hunter killer formation could be on the coast, behind russian lines, attacking back with enough fuel to disengage and return "home" through the russian blocking elements. The supply lines on the russian end mean that any assault anywhere along that 3x line (however narrow) cuts off everything to the west of where it occurs. The big takeaway here is that ukraine can either mass forces or use a relatively small force to cut a slice. Light pink to the south - crown jewel (from ukraines pov) being mariupol. What would stop them? All the armor at...(checks notes) vuhledar....?



Going beyond just the possibilities, let's imagine a world where russia lost crimea. They don't even want luhansk and donbas. I know that sounds counterintuitive - but, recall, they straight up annexed crimea - but hoped that the recruitment and support of proxy forces in those two regions would be enough to keep ukraine from retaking what they'd stolen. They already operate on a "fuck you" basis with separatists in those two regions, just ask the separatists. The occupation of both began as a diversionary measure in response to a ukranian military column moving south to retake crimea before russia had a chance to reinforce it and it worked, back in 2014. The column split, more than half heading ne, and not a shot was fired.

The military and administrative situation in ukraine has changed, and changed vastly, since then.

[Thumpalumpacus]

To give some perspective to people who aren't junkies - the area being discussed is 3x wider than it is deep (using the coast as our frame of reference) with glocs along the 3x span currently held by ukraine and the terminus (at the x to crimea) @ 300m from uncontested russian borders.  A single tank of fuel in any western mbt or ifv can make that run to the coast (and back) multiple times.  This was the main limitation in their fall offensive - not russian defense..which was nonexistent even though russia had many more troops stationed along that front than they do along the southern approach.  They took everything their fuel lines would easily allow for.  Roughly 90 minutes from the word go forward elements in ifvs and armor support in hunter killer formation could be on the coast, behind russian lines, attacking back with enough fuel to disengage and return "home" through the russian blocking elements.  The supply lines on the russian end mean that any assault anywhere along that 3x line (however narrow) cuts off everything to the west of where it occurs.  The big takeaway here is that ukraine can either mass forces or use a relatively small force to cut a slice.  Light pink to the south - crown jewel (from ukraines pov) being mariupol.  What would stop them?  All the armor at...(checks notes) vuhledar....?



Going beyond just the possibilities, let's imagine a world where russia lost crimea.  They don't even want luhansk and donbas.  I know that sounds counterintuitive - but, recall, they straight up annexed crimea - but hoped that the recruitment and support of proxy forces in those two regions would be enough to keep ukraine from retaking what they'd stolen.  They already operate on a "fuck you" basis with separatists in those two regions, just ask the separatists.  The occupation of both began as a diversionary measure in response to a ukranian military column moving south to retake crimea before russia had a chance to reinforce it and it worked, back in 2014.  The column split, more than half heading ne, and not a shot was fired.

The military and administrative situation in ukraine has changed, and changed vastly, since then.

The other thing is this: urban battles have a way of sucking in resources, be those resources men, ammo, or food. Because of the ongoing struggle for Bakhmut, I'd be willing to bet a good proportion of Russian logistic ability -- shaky even before it got shredded last year -- is tied up supplying the forces (ISW's estimate today, most of three divisions) assaulting the city. Prigozhin has already been complaining loudly for weeks now about ammo shortages.

Three conclusions, and perhaps others, I'm all ears, could possibly be drawn from that group of facts: 1) the Russians are truly running short on ammo and other supplies; 2) the Russian logistics train is overworked, meaning that they probably want to or already are bringing more transport assets to bear for the fighting units; and 3) that the Russians may (stress may) be pulling troops from the flanks in order to keep up the pressure on the city.

In that context, a Ukrainian drive to the south could (again, stressing could) face: 1) a southern front more weakly manned and more poorly supplied; 2) Russian forces stripped of logistical transport in order to support the eastern battle; and/or 3) Russian forces short of ammo that has been sent to Bakhmut.

If the above speculation -- and that's all it is, speculation -- holds true in one or more of the possibilities, this may be the Ukrainians preparing the conditions for an offensive a la Operation Uranus that the Russians pulled on the Germans at Stalingrad: suck the Russians into Bakhmut, force them to commit reserves into the cauldron, running low on supplies and experiencing transport difficulties, and then hit them on the flanks for envelopment.

Or the Ukrainians could simply, as noted above, hit the coast and from there decide to wheel north to roll up the eastern front, or wheel south and liberate Crimea. That has the advantage of simplicity.

Again, this is all speculation on my part, putting together pieces I've read both in current news and readings of history. But I'd be willing to bet that this has been at the least considered by the Ukrainian general staff, even if they've since decided on different operational plans.

Comments and critique welcome from all.

[The Grand Nudger]

Electrical short circuiting has caused an fsb hq in rostov to explode, says the regional governor. Rostov is on the russian side of the m14, where it becomes the e58. It's also where the administrative and sf heads staged back in 2014.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/rus...1b53e99a83

[Thumpalumpacus]

Electrical short circuiting has caused an fsb hq in rostov to explode, says the regional governor.  Rostov is on the russian side of the m14, where it becomes the e58.  It's also where the administrative and sf heads staged back in 2014.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/rus...1b53e99a83

On the bright side, cigarette-smoking in the Russian military seems to be dropping.

[The Grand Nudger]

In other hilarious russian news - it's come to light that many of the propaganda images and posters used in russia to represent the current disposition of the russian forces are, in fact, official warthunder game art lazily copy pasted from a google search. This is not the first time that russian disinformation has been discovered to be a screengrab from a video game. Claiming, famously, to have footage of the assassination of a russian official that turned out to be a cutscene from a batman video game....

Fire the writers.

[The Valkyrie]

Electrical short circuiting has caused an fsb hq in rostov to explode, says the regional governor.  Rostov is on the russian side of the m14, where it becomes the e58.  It's also where the administrative and sf heads staged back in 2014.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/rus...1b53e99a83

On the bright side, cigarette-smoking in the Russian military seems to be dropping.

Not as quickly as Russian soldiers...

[The Grand Nudger]

"The Careless Smoker Strikes Again!" is a very popular joke in ukranian information ops.

What I think is hilarious, is that a great many of those insinuated partisan ops or sabotage runs really are just accidents - especially in the energy sector. Russia, since the invasion and sanctions, has had to rely on the natives to run the facilities...and they're not very good at it. The willingness and compulsion (some would say need) for russia to lie about their industrial conditions wholly creates a propagandistic battlefield useful only to ukraine. Assuming this was yet another careless smoker, then it's still not good news for russia going into spring. Rostov is the nerve center of rear echelon southern command. The russian mod is a joke, but fsb does good work. Or at least has done good work, in crimea and the land bridge, and effectively filtering ukranian and pro russian partisans. FSB took crimea, and fsb holds it.

[Irreligious Atheist]

I didn't misinterpret you. You didn't question the translation of the Israeli PMs comments like Helios did, but rather, you simply said, the Israeli PM is not British or Ukrainian, so he wouldn't know and could be subject to a blind spot here, and the Israeli PM is just getting it wrong.

That's rather questioning his knowledge, Do you need this explained in further detail? I've made my doubts plain, especially after you yourself noted that even "experts" get it wrong, as you did immediately before citing this.

You are indeed misrepresenting what I wrote. Not terribly surprising, in fact, run of the mill for you.

The PM of Israel is not merely an expert, as you put it. So you don't think the ex-PM of Israel or former Presidents like Bill Clinton are in the know about world events, and you imagine that because of their lack of knowledge and being in the dark, they have to make guesses based on what they see on the news, and they are subject to blind spots with those guesses. That's your position. Not misrepresenting it.

And that opinion of yours, is naive as shit. When you're in these elite circles, you are told what is going on. If you think Bill Clinton or the ex PM of Israel aren't privy to the goings ons of the world and that they have to make due with guess work like the rest of us schlubs, then you are free to have that opinion I guess. We have Christians and Muslims on here talking about just as crazy of ideas as you just brought up, so why not bring in your crazy too? Extreme ignorance is welcome here. Hopefully you learn a thing or two over your stay here. Cheers.

[Thumpalumpacus]

In other hilarious russian news - it's come to light that many of the propaganda images and posters used in russia to represent the current disposition of the russian forces are, in fact, official warthunder game art lazily copy pasted from a google search.  This is not the first time that russian disinformation has been discovered to be a screengrab from a video game.  Claiming, famously, to have footage of the assassination of a russian official that turned out to be a cutscene from a batman video game....

Fire the writers.

To be fair, I've seen Ukrainian-slanted sources as well using video-game graphics. It's the world we live in, nowadays.