The universe existing as a byproduct of God?

[SteveII]

You know what? I'm going to give this a crack just to get some Bayesian juices flowing!

Let's discuss the probability that a God that intervenes in our affairs and occasionally heals people in unambiguously supernatural ways exists. We'll call it P(G). Being reasonable, we should assign a very low initial probability value to P(G). This should be reasonable. If you believe it should be higher, then that means we have to go backwards a bit and do a different set of Bayesian calculations to see if it should. That said, let's be generous and make it a probability of 1 millionth (this is a very generous number):

P(G) = 0.000001

Now let's include the probability of at least one amputee's limb being fully and spontaneously restored to adequate length and functionality, given that such a God exists. We'll call this R. We'll give it a good probability given this particular God's existence, and rather low given such a being doesn't exist.

So P(R|G) = 0.60 and P(R|~G) = 0.000000001 (again, being generous here)

I'll use this link to avoid any errors with my calculations (hopefully this is a good calculator).

https://ludios.org/bayes/

So putting in the initial values, and knowing that we live in a world where R has not happened, we get that:

P(G|~R) = 0.0000004000002404001441 (Which is a magnitude lower than the initial P(G)).

So probability of God goes down not up.

Now if we were to have R occur, then P(G|R) would be quite high (virtually 100%):

P(G|R): 0.9983361081503096641436

And this is of course all based on my initial values (I was being generous). Perhaps it needs some major/minor tweaking here or there, and agreement by others, or perhaps I got it all wrong (correct me if so, Alex), but that's the gist of how it should be applied.

Ah, but you failed to include evidence. What if we saw with out own eyes that such a thing happened? Or perhaps a little more subtler: that the man had no limb last month when you saw him and this month he does. Your math would be the same. The probability calculus strings together the probability of all the scenarios that would account for such a thing--including what is the probability that such a thing happened had there not been a supernatural intervention.

Related to this, the second problem is that your scenario is hypothetical when we are clearly discussing historical events that have context. I posted this in another thread

When discussing Jesus' miracles, the context, that strengthen the claim, might include:

1. Timing (Jesus said something like "pick up your bed and walk"
2. Illustrating a particular point. Example Mat 9 Jesus told a man his sins were forgiven. When the religious leaders grumbled that this was blasphemy, he asked what was easier to say that your sins are forgiven or to tell him to get up an walk.
3. Reinforce teachings with some authority. Example feeding 5000, Matt 9:35
4. So that people might believe (specifically stated). Example Lazarus (John 11)
5. Reward for faith.
6. Theologically significant. example virgin birth, baptism, tearing of the veil in the temple, resurrection.