(June 12, 2018 at 1:19 pm)henryp Wrote:(June 12, 2018 at 1:04 pm)Crossless2.0 Wrote: I'm not sure how you assess the level of risk of a nuclear war breaking out with North Korea. They still have nukes; we still have nukes. Some of the things one might hope to have achieved by making this concession (i.e., better information about their arsenal and capabilities; a timetable for inspectors to examine their development and testing sites) apparently weren't even on the table. And leaving aside nukes, they still have a metric fuck-ton of conventional arms aimed directly at Seoul, who apparently weren't all aware that we were going to end our joint exercises. North Korea conceded absolutely nothing, which is less than a little something, no?
I hope Trump's meeting with Kim is the first step in a process that brings true and lasting peace. But I don't think this meeting displayed our president's alleged negotiating prowess. We'll just have to see what can be achieved when serious negotiations between the experts takes shape.
Is it fair to say not holding war games off the coast of NK is a deescalation in terms of military tension? Just like holding these peace talks, and NK and SK holding peace talks is also a deescalation in tension? Remember, a year ago, people were legitimately worried NK was going to Nuke Hawaii or California.
For what it's worth, I never seriously worried that Hawaii or California might get nuked. The Kim regimes developed their nuclear capability precisely because they understand the logic of having such a deterrent, in light of their belief that we were itching to invade and overthrow them. Now they have their deterrent, so any talk of their anxiety over military exercises that have been going on for decades is, at best, beside the point.
