The free will argument demonstrates that christians don't understand free will.

[Coffee Jesus]

…somebody who is trapped in poverty is more likely to seek wealth through illegitimate means, such as stealing. This doesn't mean they couldn't choose not to steal; it just means the probability of them choosing to steal was conditioned upon their circumstances.

I think there is a difference between potential and probability. Saying that someone is conditioned to behave in a certain way just because they have the ability and opportunity to do so…that’s a big leap. Again, humans do not just conform to their circumstances. Humans change things to create opportunities that never before existed. For example, there is a scene in Ender’s Game in which Ender plays a video game. In the game, a giant presents Ender’s mouse character with a choice between two goblets, one leads to fairyland while the other is poison. In a display of genius, Ender chooses neither. His mouse character leaps into the giant’s eye socket and kills him. We create choices every bit as much as we make them.

I'm not saying they're conditioned to behave that way. I'm saying their behavior is conditional, just as your forum membership is conditional because it is conditioned upon your adherence to the code of conduct. However, I'm saying that this conditionality is inherently probabilistic (see conditional probability). Instances of absolute conditionality, i.e. the choice isn't even possible, are just instances where the conditional probability is 0.

Humans can respond in novel and unexpected ways, but those responses still fall within general categories. Either you swim or you don't swim: this set of choices is exhaustive. You can swim in a novel way, and you can avoid swimming in a novel way, but you're still swimming or not swimming.