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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 4:46 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2016 at 6:38 pm by drfuzzy.)
More relevant and interesting than any Jeebus myth:
"The posterior probability of a hypothesis is determined by a combination of the inherent likeliness of a hypothesis (the prior) and the compatibility of the observed evidence with the hypothesis (the likelihood)."
You can run the formula for each hypothesis (H) and compare.Let's do the resurrection of Harry:
P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
P(E)
H = Hypothesis, Harry was revived by the Resurrection Stone
E = Harry returns to Hogwarts
P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that The Resurrection Stone can raise the dead = .90
P(H) - probability that Harry can get back to Hogwarts before Voldemort observes E = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (zombified?) = .05
.9 x .01
18% = ----------------
.05
Fixed that for you. You just need better literature than that hideous wholly babble, that's all.
"The family that prays together...is brainwashing their children."- Albert Einstein
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 4:49 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2016 at 4:54 pm by SteveII.)
(March 15, 2016 at 4:38 pm)Rhythm Wrote: No amount of re-posting it will make it do what it cannot. No amount of claiming that it can, will change that it cannot. I'm starting to think you're holding it up like a shield, which is another thing it's poorly suited for.
Do you understand why an equation cannot claim to solve for x if the value of x is necessary to the equation? There is no x on both sides of the equation. Just because you've been repeating yourself over and over does not make it so either.
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 4:59 pm
"You Can't Disprove a Miracle"
Can you prove it IS a miracle?
No?
Then it's not a miracle.
Playing Cluedo with my mum while I was at Uni:
"You did WHAT? With WHO? WHERE???"
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 5:03 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2016 at 5:10 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
(March 15, 2016 at 4:49 pm)SteveII Wrote: (March 15, 2016 at 4:38 pm)Rhythm Wrote: No amount of re-posting it will make it do what it cannot. No amount of claiming that it can, will change that it cannot. I'm starting to think you're holding it up like a shield, which is another thing it's poorly suited for.
Do you understand why an equation cannot claim to solve for x if the value of x is necessary to the equation? There is no x on both sides of the equation. Just because you've been repeating yourself over and over does not make it so either.
The value you have set at 90% (previously "high") is a value for the probability of a miracle. In -your- words, "jesus heals". You see, I didn't make it so, you did.... repeatedly.
Would you like to change that?
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 5:19 pm
(March 15, 2016 at 5:03 pm)Rhythm Wrote: (March 15, 2016 at 4:49 pm)SteveII Wrote: There is no x on both sides of the equation. Just because you've been repeating yourself over and over does not make it so either.
I've pointed it out to you repeatedly. The value you have set at 90% (previously "high") is a value for the probability of a miracle. In -your- words, "jesus heals". You see, I didn't make it so, you did....repeatedly.
Would you like to change that? Not the value, I mean...it doesn;t matter what you set the value at. You'll need to change your definition of the variable.
Sorry if the earlier effort was not clear.
The 90% value P(E/H) is not the probability of a miracle. It is the probability that we would see E if H were true.
P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
P(E)
H = Hypothesis, man was healed by Jesus
E = man walks, including timing and context
P(H/E) - probability of H given E
P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that Jesus can heal = .90
P(H) - probability that Jesus can heal cripple before E was observed = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (call it "natural causes") = .05
.9 x .01
18% = ----------------
.05
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 5:21 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2016 at 5:23 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
Are you gonna stick with that?
( I ask, because it's still the probability of a miracle)
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 5:36 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2016 at 5:43 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
Kind of a laughable value too....90% that you'd see a crippled leg uncrippled -given miracles-? How'd you come to that one, jesus uncrippling nine out of ten people and we just missed it? There are ten answers to the question and jesus is nine of them? It's happened on the third tuesday of the month and tuesday times three is nine?
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 15, 2016 at 7:10 pm
(March 15, 2016 at 5:19 pm)SteveII Wrote:
Are you serious? It is bad enough you believe in an invisible boogey man, but now you are just making up shit.
" probability of E given the hypothesis that Jesus can heal = 0.0"
"likelihood that E happened without H (call it "natural causes") = 100.0"
There, fixed it for you.
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 16, 2016 at 5:12 am
(This post was last modified: March 16, 2016 at 5:36 am by robvalue.)
Thanks for your reply steve, I appreciate the honesty you displayed there.
You are wrong when you say being an atheist limits my possibilities. I am open to absolutely any possibility. Anything at all. All I require is that a coherent claim is put forward, with sufficient accompanying evidence. If someone can do that, regarding any subject whatsoever, then I will change my position on that subject. What I will not do is believe what people tell me based on no evidence, or improper evidence. What exactly is sufficient evidence depends on the claim, but it should demonstrate repeatability and verifiability, where appropriate. This is being open minded without being gullible. I care about the truth. My wife claims ghosts are real. I believe she believes this, but I don't yet believe she is correct. She has presented me with no evidence to examine, so I can't come to a conclusion about it.
However, your methods are still highly flawed. I'm not going to continue to argue with you, but I'll state it again for those watching at home:
Either "the supernatural" (whatever that is) is possible as an explanation (because it's a real thing) or it's impossible as an explanation (because it's not a real thing).
The default position is that we don't know which. We don't know if it's possible, and we don't know if it's impossible. This is the starting point for any claim. We have no opinion either way.
Then we examine the evidence. In this case, there is none. So we're still at the position of not knowing whether it's possible or impossible.
To make a positive case that it is possible because it hasn't yet been shown to be impossible, is the argument from ignorance. It's creating a false dichotomy, by failing to account for the following further scenarios:
1) The supernatural is impossible, but the evidence for this has not been discovered yet
2) The supernatural is impossible, but demonstrating this to be true is actually impossible
Neither of these have been excluded, and so they remain. The best conclusion is that it "might be possible"; which is the default position anyway. Nothing has been demonstrated.
Making up numbers regarding magical stories from random books establishes nothing outside of the person's imagination. Science is about repeatability and testability.
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RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
March 16, 2016 at 5:36 am
(March 15, 2016 at 5:19 pm)SteveII Wrote: (March 15, 2016 at 5:03 pm)Rhythm Wrote: I've pointed it out to you repeatedly. The value you have set at 90% (previously "high") is a value for the probability of a miracle. In -your- words, "jesus heals". You see, I didn't make it so, you did....repeatedly.
Would you like to change that? Not the value, I mean...it doesn;t matter what you set the value at. You'll need to change your definition of the variable.
Sorry if the earlier effort was not clear.
The 90% value P(E/H) is not the probability of a miracle. It is the probability that we would see E if H were true.
P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
P(E)
H = Hypothesis, man was healed by Jesus
E = man walks, including timing and context
P(H/E) - probability of H given E
P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that Jesus can heal = .90
P(H) - probability that Jesus can heal cripple before E was observed = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (call it "natural causes") = .05
.9 x .01
18% = ----------------
.05 Have a go at the handshake thread.
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