Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

What strike?  Ukraine is under attack, not russia.

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Additionally, just so I understand, what part of denazification and saving ethnic russians does that justification for war..against ukraine...fall under?

Ukraine joining NATO allows NATO medium or intermediate range nuclear missiles to cover all of european russian, giving russia no time to act on any launch.    if nuclear deterrence has a high chance of being destroyed first without being launched in retaliation, then it is not a deterrence and might as well not be there at all.    From russian perspective it renders much of russian land based nuclear deterrence impotent.

So ukraine joining nato is essentially equivalent in effect to a successful preemptive counterforce or decapitating strike against Russia.

the denazification bullshit serves the same role as saddam’s mythical weapons of mass destruction.  it furnished evocative excuse for the domestic audience for the military action which otherwise may be receive as much support.

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[The Grand Nudger]

We'd already discussed that, yes, but there are already nato countries on russias border..and, frankly, ukraine is entitled to join nato should they so choose, aren't they? Even if that is or at least could amount to a dire situation for putin or for russia. I'm just not sure what were grounding this on, in the sense of cutting through the shit, right?

No one was invading russia, no one was threatening to invade russia, no one was threating to nuke russia into oblivion, russia is not..even now, under any military assualt whatsoever. Ukraine was not in nato, nor would it be anytime soon. Ukraine is not murdering ethnic russians, and there isn't any plan to denazify ukraine, whatever the hell that's supposed to mean. This is territorial expansion, and the russians have not, themselves, been shy at all about that. Up to and including vladimir putin.

[Anomalocaris]

what people are nominally entitled to, de jure, is nice but not really material. the thing that matters is have you correctly anticipated the blow back abs can you withstand the blow back if you move to exercise the right.

No right is truly a right. all depends on the consequence.

[The Grand Nudger]

Rock and a hard place for ukraine I suppose. Has nato membership ever been premised on whether or not it gives putin the willies and flings rockets? I suppose in a world or a treaty organized around the notion above that would be the case. I'm obviously not on board with that, but it may be how the world works or will from now on, or for a time - I suppose.

[Anomalocaris]

Pro-western Ukrainian governments since 2005 has been clammering for NATO member ship as a way to burn the bridge with russia and preventing Ukraine from backsliding towards russian influence.   This ir imports t because in fact pro-western sentiment in Ukraine is largely confined to young urbanites and by no means is it clear the country overall would not wish to return to a closer relationship with russia.

The US has been maneuvering to pull Ukraine into NATO as a means of neutering Russia.  In reality, much if EU is highly skeptical about closer integration with Ukraine.   in one famous instance, deputy foreign policy advisor to the vice president Victoria Nuland was found in Ukraine during the colored revolution, advising the pro-western coup.  her phone was tapped by the Russian.  on the phone she was heard to exclaim “fuck EU” when her ukrainian contact mentioned opposition of the EU to Ukraine membership in NATO.   the russians of course released the tap to public.

officially NATO and EU have presented Ukraine with a road map for Ukraine to joining, but punted the actually trigger pull by saying Ukraine does not meet the requirement yet.

[The Grand Nudger]

Seems like thats for ukraine to decide either way. There's no justification for a russian invasion of the country particularly if russia credibly believed ukraine was looking to return to the fold.

Bullshit cutting, right?

Did ukraine meet the requirements?

[Anomalocaris]

Seems like thats for ukraine to decide either way.  There's no justification for a russian invasion of the country particularly if russia credibly believed ukraine was looking to return to the fold.

Bullshit cutting, right?

Did ukraine meet the requirements?

A nuclear power does not let another country have the option to decide to neuter its nuclear deterrence.   

There is no doubt pro-western fraction in Ukraine was better organized, more savvy, and effectively supported by the US.    IF I were Russia, I would not rely on the chance  that the country of Ukraine as a whole would see the light by itself either, even if I estimate the odds of thar happening iis better than even,   Which I would not, is at least not when my status as a major power depends on it.

[The Grand Nudger]

Maybe not, but I feel like we're playing whackamole with bad faith and counterfactual arguments here - which may actually reflect the thinking of the kremlin, sure...but that could only make the situation even more dire than it otherwise is, imo.

Did ukraine meet the requirements?

Seems to me that there was a need to admit ukraine after all. They are being invaded by russsia, aren't they? Isn't this what nato was formed to contain?

[Anomalocaris]

Maybe not, but I feel like we're playing whackamole with bad faith and counterfactual arguments here - which may actually reflect the thinking of the kremlin, sure...but that could only make the situation even more dire than it otherwise is, imo.

Did ukraine meet the requirements?

Seems to me that there was a need to admit ukraine after all.  They are being invaded by russsia, aren't they?

Nominally no.  But NATO stated in the 2008 Bucharest declaration that the eventual goal is to admit both Ukraine and Georgia and presented a roadmap for them to meet the requirements.

But more importantly the requirement can be changed on a dime.  What the requirements are set at and how Ukraine is evaluated reflects  a contest between the hesitation of classical continental NATO states of France and Germany to needlessly provoke Russia by admitting Ukraine,   And the gung ho eagerness of the US and some of the new nato states that was part of the former eastern block, such as Poland, to permanently neuter Russia by admitting Ukraine.

Yes they are being invaded.   They wouldn’t be if NATO made it clear that would not be admitted for geostrategic considerations.

Now that they are invaded, admitting them would be even more moronic because the NATO is in no position to stop the invasions, so it will just make it seems as if NATO membership offers less than no security.

[Silver]

I haven't a clue about this conflict. Not paying attention to the news has its benefits.