Russia and Ukraine

[Angrboda]

I don’t disagree (if Ukraine joining NATO is an existential threat to Russia, then Ukraine as a Russian puppet state is an existential threat to NATO), but it isn’t likely to happen. NATO’s best option right now is a massive deployment of military assets to Poland, which I have a sinking feeling is next on Putin’s hit list.

Boru

Putin wont attack NATO. He knows the consequences.
There were only two countries for him left to focus on:* Ukraine and Belarus. If/when Ukraine is finished, he will make sure Belarus gets moved *closer* (in)to Russia. If he survives this major blunder he just caused.

*Moldavia is not a thing regarding this situation

I'm not so sure about that. The EU doesn't have the military resources to do more than attempt to block an invasion, which might actually succeed. The US wouldn't be able to mobilize enough forces to Poland to matter.

[Anomalocaris]

Even if russia wishes to take poland, it will need to take the baltic republics first to secure the flank of it lines of communication.

But as it is now, russia does not have the capability to take and occupy poland.

[The Valkyrie]

I don’t disagree (if Ukraine joining NATO is an existential threat to Russia, then Ukraine as a Russian puppet state is an existential threat to NATO), but it isn’t likely to happen. NATO’s best option right now is a massive deployment of military assets to Poland, which I have a sinking feeling is next on Putin’s hit list.

Boru

no, he does not intend to go beyond ukraine right now.    belarus is already in his pocket, ruled as it has since the fall of soviet union by the same former soviet apparatchik.    The relationship between russia and belarus now is already the same as what he would want the repkaship between Russia and Ukraine to be when he is done.
  
in the long run, his next logical target will undoubtedly be the baltic republicans, not poland.   Baltic republics were part of the USSR proper, like ukraine, and before that part of the czarist Russian empire, just like ukraine, not just a former warsaw pact satellite or was only partially under czarist rule, like poland.  Their being part of the NATO threatens Saint Petersburg, russian access to the baltic, as well as russian acres to kaliningrad, and they are geographically well suited to be taken by a multi prone invasion from several direction.

However, It is unlikely he made up his mind to do this.

As to ukraine being an existential threat to NATO, it is, but only by choice, and not the only existential threat facing it either.  Geopolitically nato didn’t need to expand into former warsaw pact at all, as indeed the US and NATO did promise Gorbachev it won’t if they soviet union withdrew from east germany. 

the current NATO still has no need for ukraine to ensure safety of existing members.  it only wants ukraine to prevent Russia becoming a obstacle to US hegemony in euroasia, but the US hegemony in Euroasia i’m now also face multiple other serious and increasing obstacles. 

The reason why russian taking ukraine threatens NATO is simply it shows NATO talks a lot more than it needs to, and if believed, then one might find oneself facing the consequences of it not being able to walk the walk.

Undoubtedly NATO will put on an exhibit of solidarity for next few years.   but NATO is damaged goods. It was already damaged goods when Trump dissed it.   without the US NATO is worthless because all of the other NATO states combined can’t defend its peripheral states against russia invasion of russia so chooses to invade.    While ukraine damaged it some more, the fact that the self same trump remains the lord of one of the two political party in the US and that party is on track to win mid term election, which places trump in good position to put in act 2, in fact suppresses it’s credibility at a much deeper level. 

No one will take NATO seriously if there is even odds it will effective dissolve sometime in the next several years.

the pivot by the US to the pacific to confront china also diminishes NATO credibility.    ultimately what makes NATO a spent force is the fact all its members combined represents an ever diminishing part of global economy.

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NATO needs to make it clear that this us unacceptable and there will be consequences.

12 hours to call a cease fire.

24 to begin a withdrawal.

48 to get all forces out of the Ukraine.

After that, remove a couple of Russian military bases from the map and start pushing them out by force.

huh, by force?   which force?

they can remove nato bases and cities from map too.

Whatever force is necessary to push the invading force out of Ukraine.

[Anomalocaris]

there is no such force at NATO’s disposal.

It is doubtful combined conventional force of US and rest of the NATO, given unlimited time to deploy, has the capability to defeat the available russian force in and around ukraine, without wider interdiction of the kind that will attack targets in russia proper and thus potentially trigger a nuclear war,

The reason why we, as in NATO led by the US, are here is we elected to create a situation that is well beyond our capability to bring to successful conclusion.     Our inability to bring things to a successful conclusion is detected abs acted upon by russia, who otherwise stand to lose a great deal by letting the situation continue.

Think it this as Russia’s cuban missile crisis.   The difference is russia backed down when it realized it can’t win in 1963.   we, having been trumperized, declined to back down even though we also have mo chance of winning.

[The Grand Nudger]

We're not at war with Russia. Neither is NATO. Russia has declared war on Ukraine. It's looking like they have their hands full with it.

[Anomalocaris]

actually, I doubt Russia formally declared war on ukraine.

No one has bothered to declare war before commencing hostilities since the end of WWII, least of all the US, which actually invaded more countries than any others countries since the end of WWII, and hasn’t bothered to precced a single invasion with a declaration since the attack on Okinawa during WWII.   the concept of declaration of war as a formal beginning to the legitimate prosecution of war is probably dead.

Russia probably is making an effort to minimize civilian casualty, precisely because anti-russian sentiment is weaker than might be portrayed on western media, and they don’t want to antagonize parts of the l popukation that were not hostile.  That likely account for the fact Kyiv hasn’t fallen yet. 

Zelenski also acted oh a way that minimized the possibility of a protected guerilla action.   If he wanted to draw out the conflict and bleed russia he should have, as the US told him him to, relocated his capital to western ukraine close to polish border which would be harder for Russian troops to get to and easier for NATO to infiltrate support to.    Russia probably had russia’s ideal adversary in the hapless Zelenski.

I think although Putin was prepared to accept the consequence and attack Ukraine right from day one, in fact he did not actually make up his mind to attack ukraine until February. Zelensky’s statement that ukraine needs to acquire nuclear weapons to defend itself would by itself probably have been enough to clinch Putin’s decision to invade.

[The Grand Nudger]

I'm not sure how appeals to hypocrisy work - we're already in the moral and geopolitical sewer, right? De jure or de facto, Russia has declared war on Ukraine. As to minimizing civilian casualties, that doesn't appear to be the ukranians impression of the state of affairs in mere reality.

[Anomalocaris]

it is never the impression that the other side is trying to minimize civilian casualty when civilians are dying.   but when it is over how many people have a personal or family grudge because their friends or relatives died does matter

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also, Geopolitical sewer is the reason why high minded standards and morality concepts that many idealistic people prefer to be the only things they see are not more frequently drowned in raw sewerage and shit.


In ukraine we tried to erect a facade of idealism around a core of hegemonic interest without hooking anything up to the geopolitical sewer, hence it is now drowning in shit

shit also overflowed in iraq and afghanistan, and we are now learning from ukraine just as little as we learned from those.

[The Grand Nudger]

That sounds optimistic, you think we learn?

[Anomalocaris]

That sounds optimistic, you think we learn?

no.


we have become a nation of donald trumps, on both sides of political spectrum, when it comes to critical assessment of own ideals, self reflection and learning from own mistakes. 

people say “i don’t care if russia……”, etc, as if that matters, or could be relevant.