Russia and Ukraine

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

A Russian perspective on the sanctions:

Russian writer Egor Kotkin said economic sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine last month have illustrated continued Western power in the economic realm.

“Right now, the balance of power, producing power, population power, economic power, is shifted very much to outside of the West. And the rest of the world is looking to Russian example and they see now the West still controls much of the relationship through the economic power,” Kotkin said while appearing on HillTV’s “Rising.”

“If you act politically as a sovereign country —— even talking about some aggressive acts of violence like invasion or war or some domestic oppressions, particularly independently from the West — you will be called out economically. You might be destroyed,” he added.

Nonetheless, Kotkin said support for Putin is growing in Russia, like it did after his 2014 invasion of Crimea and for President Bush after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Kotkin said Russians feel that sanctions are another form of war as Moscow continued its assault on Ukraine.

“I mean Russian people feel these economic sanctions as a separate war and it’s actual a separate war or at least a separate front of the same war,” he said.

“There is going on an economic assault on Russia,” he added.

https://thehill.com/news/3256472-egor-ko...ing-power/

It's comparable to Clausewitz's aphorism that "war is an extension of politics."

I wonder how accurate is the idea that Putin's support is growing domestically. I can't argue against that, except to point out that only a fool would express dissent in Russia at this point.

He’s clearly hugely popular - he tends to win all of his free and fair elections with 90-95% of the vote.

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

He’s clearly hugely popular - he tends to win all of his free and fair elections with 90-95% of the vote.

Boru

Gosh, when has that ever happened before?

[Anomalocaris]

It's difficult to imagine that Russia's strategy all along was to turn this into a long, drawn-out war.  They're struggling to keep enough troops, vehicles and command officers in the field for what they imagined would be a short, intense conflict. Furthermore, the unprecedented level of sanctions has already cratered the Russian economy - they simply can't afford to fight a long insurgency, even if they restrict their activities to the eastern portions of the country.

Boru

edit: Just saw a video (which I can't post for stupid internetty techy reasons) of Russian troops handing out humanitarian aid to Ukrainian civilians in Mariupol.

Maybe the next time they do this, they should remove the UKRAINIAN labels from the UKRAINIAN products they're passing out, so people don't get the idea that these items were either stolen from aid convoys or looted from UKRAINIAN stores and warehouses.

It has not been the initial strategy.     I think Russia’s initial strategy is east to understand by looking the deep battle doctrine that the Soviet military first propounded in the 1920s and the implemented in 1942, and followed with great success in 1943-1945.  

Deep battle emphasize opening at battle with a style of practical military deception operation called moskirovka.   Moskirovka presumes Soviet forces had begun with numerical superiority.  Moskirovka sets  the stage for the main decisive attack by first simultaneously attacking the enemy along multiple widely separated axis that makes it difficult for the enemy to know where the main attack axis lay, and also makes it difficult for the enemy to be able to position its reserves so as to be able to advantageously meet Russian attacks on several axis at once.    This forces the enemy to guess which axis is the main one, and commit their reserves prematurely.    Only when it becomes clear where the enemy has committed their reserves, would Russian select the primary axis of attack to avoid enemy reserves.   The Russian army would then commit its own reserve to achieve a breakthrough by effectively push against an unlocked door.   During the late 1943-1945 period, the Soviets implemented moskirovka with tremendous success against the German army.    Despite later soviet portrayals of great soviet heroics in beating the german army, the Soviets didn’t do much out fight the Germans as out deceived and out maneuvered the German army.    

Moskirovka remained an integral part of soviet operating doctrine through the Cold War.

It looks very much to me like the Russians in the current Ukrainian war also attempted to implement a version of moskirovka.   The problem is the Russians didn’t start the battle with any numerical superiority.    So the Ukrainians were able to check each of Russia advances and stop all of them from making decisive breakthroughs.    If the Russians had done it right, then Russians would attack with so much force that each of its 5 attack axis could potentially break through into Ukrainian hinterland, and Ukraine must gather the balk of its reserve to meet apparently there most threatening one or two.    Since the russian thrusts are widely separated, once committed Ukrainian reserved could not be easily maneuvered to meet other attacks.   Once the Ukrainians have committed to meeting a Russian attack, the Russians would then throw in their own reserves into an attack that the Ukraine did not deploy their reserves to meet, and break through.    

They obviously failed.

They began the war by following an tried and true operational doctrine that relies on numerical superiority, and attacked with a numerically inferior force instead that is further weakened by wide dispersal.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

It's difficult to imagine that Russia's strategy all along was to turn this into a long, drawn-out war.  They're struggling to keep enough troops, vehicles and command officers in the field for what they imagined would be a short, intense conflict. Furthermore, the unprecedented level of sanctions has already cratered the Russian economy - they simply can't afford to fight a long insurgency, even if they restrict their activities to the eastern portions of the country.

Boru

edit: Just saw a video (which I can't post for stupid internetty techy reasons) of Russian troops handing out humanitarian aid to Ukrainian civilians in Mariupol.

Maybe the next time they do this, they should remove the UKRAINIAN labels from the UKRAINIAN products they're passing out, so people don't get the idea that these items were either stolen from aid convoys or looted from UKRAINIAN stores and warehouses.

It has not been the initial strategy.     I think Russia’s initial strategy is east to understand by looking the deep battle doctrine that the Soviet military first propounded in the 1920s and the implemented in 1942, and followed with great success in 1943-1945.  

Deep battle emphasize opening at battle with a style of practical military deception operation called moskirovka.   Moskirovka presumes Soviet forces had begun with numerical superiority.  Moskirovka sets  the stage for the main decisive attack by first simultaneously attacking the enemy along multiple widely separated axis that makes it difficult for the enemy to know where the main attack axis lay, and also makes it difficult for the enemy to be able to position its reserves so as to be able to advantageously meet Russian attacks on several axis at once.    This forces the enemy to guess which axis is the main one, and commit their reserves prematurely.    Only when it becomes clear where the enemy has committed their reserves, would Russian select the primary axis of attack to avoid enemy reserves.   The Russian army would then commit its own reserve to achieve a breakthrough by effectively push against an unlocked door.   During the late 1943-1945 period, the Soviets implemented moskirovka with tremendous success against the German army.    Despite later soviet portrayals of great soviet heroics in beating the german army, the Soviets didn’t do much out fight the Germans as out deceived and out maneuvered the German army.    

Moskirovka remained an integral part of soviet operating doctrine through the Cold War.

It looks very much to me like the Russians in the current Ukrainian war also attempted to implement a version of moskirovka.   The problem is the Russians didn’t start the battle with any numerical superiority.    So the Ukrainians were able to check each of Russia advances and stop all of them from making decisive breakthroughs.    If the Russians had done it right, then Russians would attack with so much force that each of its 5 attack axis could potentially break through into Ukrainian hinterland, and Ukraine must gather the balk of its reserve to meet apparently there most threatening one or two.    Since the russian thrusts are widely separated, once committed Ukrainian reserved could not be easily maneuvered to meet other attacks.   Once the Ukrainians have committed to meeting a Russian attack, the Russians would then throw in their own reserves into an attack that the Ukraine did not deploy their reserves to meet, and break through.    

They obviously failed.

They began the war by following an tried and true operational doctrine that relies on numerical superiority, and attacked with a numerically inferior force instead that is further weakened by wide dispersal.

Short version: Russia, through incompetence, fucked up.

On a even brighter note, there are reports that Ukraine is beginning to employ roadside bombs.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

Nothing that's happening in this war suggests that russia could pull that off - if that's what they wanted to do.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Russians would have been much better putting it off.

[Thumpalumpacus]

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters.

The new accounts of untrained and ill-equipped conscripts being deployed are a fresh indication of how stretched the military resources at the Kremlin's disposal are, over a month into a war that has seen Moscow's forces hobbled by logistical problems and held up by fierce Ukrainian resistance.

One of the people, a student conscripted in late February, said a fellow fighter told him to prepare to repel a close-quarter attack by Ukrainian forces in southwest Donbas but "I don't even know how to fire an automatic weapon."

The student and his unit fired back and evaded capture, but he was injured in a later battle. He did not say when the fighting took place.

While some information indicating poor conditions and morale among Donbas conscripts has emerged in social media and some local media outlets, Reuters was able to assemble one of the most comprehensive pictures to date.

Besides the student draftee, Reuters spoke to three wives of conscripts who have mobile phone contact with their partners, one acquaintance of a draftee, and one source close to the pro-Russian separatist leadership who is helping to organize supplies for the Donbas armed forces.

[...]

Several Donbas draftees have been issued with a rifle called a Mosin, which was developed in the late 19th century and went out of production decades ago, according to three people who saw conscripts from the separatist region using the weapon. Images shared on social media, that Reuters has not been able to verify independently, also showed Donbas fighters with Mosin rifles.

The student said he was forced to drink water from a fetid pond because of lack of supplies. Two other sources in contact with draftees also told Reuters the men had to drink untreated water.

[...]

After being pushed to the front line near the port of Mariupol -- scene of the heaviest fighting in the war -- a group of about 135 Donbas conscripts laid down their arms and refused to fight on, according to Veronika, the partner of a conscript, who said her husband was among them. Marina, partner of another conscript, said she had been in contact with a friend who was part of the same group.

[...]

None of the five draftees had prior military experience or training, and four of the five were given no training before they were sent into combat, according to the injured draftee, the three wives of conscripted men, and the acquaintance.

[...]

All the accounts gathered by Reuters mentioned an acute shortage of supplies. The sources described little or no safe drinking water, field rations for one man being shared among several, and units having to scavenge food.

"We drank water with dead frogs in it," said the student conscript.

"Supplies for the soldiers right now are a disaster," said the source close to the Donetsk separatist leadership, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/conscripts...022-04-04/

Scraping the bottom of the barrel. The Russians would be making a laughingstock of themselves were it not for the fact that even in their incompetence they're killing thousands ... including their own.

[onlinebiker]

Quote

Several Donbas draftees have been issued with a rifle called a Mosin, which was developed in the late 19th century and went out of production decades ago, according to three people who saw conscripts from the separatist region using the weapon.

Unquote

A bit of ignorance here..

The rifle they are describing is either the Mosin Nagant 91/30 or M44 carbine. While these are older rifles - with lousy finish - they are none the less a capable battlefield rifle. Additionally - it uses a more powerful cartridge 7.62x 54 than the AK47 uses, 7.62 x 39. 

Sure it is a bolt action - but it is capable of making long range shots an AK47 could not.

I have owned both - and would not be afraid of trusting one to work as needed....

[Deesse23]

Scraping the bottom of the barrel. The Russians would be making a laughingstock of themselves were it not for the fact that even in their incompetence they're killing thousands ... including their own.

Remember when i said that manpower was to russian leaders always just another resource, an expendable one at that?
If the "Mosin" rifle mentioned is the Mosin Nagant then....why not giving them consripts some clubs?

[Anomalocaris]

Mosin nagant remains a perfectly credible sniper weapon.  Can you snipe with a club?

---

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters.

The new accounts of untrained and ill-equipped conscripts being deployed are a fresh indication of how stretched the military resources at the Kremlin's disposal are, over a month into a war that has seen Moscow's forces hobbled by logistical problems and held up by fierce Ukrainian resistance.

One of the people, a student conscripted in late February, said a fellow fighter told him to prepare to repel a close-quarter attack by Ukrainian forces in southwest Donbas but "I don't even know how to fire an automatic weapon."

The student and his unit fired back and evaded capture, but he was injured in a later battle. He did not say when the fighting took place.

While some information indicating poor conditions and morale among Donbas conscripts has emerged in social media and some local media outlets, Reuters was able to assemble one of the most comprehensive pictures to date.

Besides the student draftee, Reuters spoke to three wives of conscripts who have mobile phone contact with their partners, one acquaintance of a draftee, and one source close to the pro-Russian separatist leadership who is helping to organize supplies for the Donbas armed forces.

[...]

Several Donbas draftees have been issued with a rifle called a Mosin, which was developed in the late 19th century and went out of production decades ago, according to three people who saw conscripts from the separatist region using the weapon. Images shared on social media, that Reuters has not been able to verify independently, also showed Donbas fighters with Mosin rifles.

The student said he was forced to drink water from a fetid pond because of lack of supplies. Two other sources in contact with draftees also told Reuters the men had to drink untreated water.

[...]

After being pushed to the front line near the port of Mariupol -- scene of the heaviest fighting in the war -- a group of about 135 Donbas conscripts laid down their arms and refused to fight on, according to Veronika, the partner of a conscript, who said her husband was among them. Marina, partner of another conscript, said she had been in contact with a friend who was part of the same group.

[...]

None of the five draftees had prior military experience or training, and four of the five were given no training before they were sent into combat, according to the injured draftee, the three wives of conscripted men, and the acquaintance.

[...]

All the accounts gathered by Reuters mentioned an acute shortage of supplies. The sources described little or no safe drinking water, field rations for one man being shared among several, and units having to scavenge food.

"We drank water with dead frogs in it," said the student conscript.

"Supplies for the soldiers right now are a disaster," said the source close to the Donetsk separatist leadership, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/conscripts...022-04-04/

Scraping the bottom of the barrel. The Russians would be making a laughingstock of themselves were it not for the fact that even in their incompetence they're killing thousands ... including their own.

Well, Dunbas is not exactly Russia yet, and the conflict in Dunbas is being portrayed as something of war of liberation for ethnic Russians.    So the drafting in Dunbas has more of a drafting peasants into a heroic partisan war of liberation flavor than drafting soldiers into a regular army to fight a conventional war on foreign soil flavor.

So to people that really matters, that is the Dunbasians and the Russian audience steeped in the mythology of the great patriotic war where crudely equipped partisans supposedly made German life behind the lines a living hell,  bolt action rifles probably is actually a bonus as far as stirring up popular sentiments go.    

It allows the Russian side to play the two sided melodrama of being both victim and hero at the same time.

Which, incidentally, is exactly what the Ukrainian side has been doing since shortly after the start of the war as well.