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Russia and Ukraine
RE: Russia and Ukraine
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"Change was inevitable"


Nemo sicut deus debet esse!

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 “No matter what men think, abortion is a fact of life. Women have always had them; they always have and they always will. Are they going to have good ones or bad ones? Will the good ones be reserved for the rich, while the poor women go to quacks?”
–SHIRLEY CHISHOLM


      
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 22, 2022 at 4:35 pm)Jehanne Wrote:
(September 22, 2022 at 3:19 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: Their weapons aren't great, and of course many of them are indeed outdated. But I think they're pretty capable of developing some very high-tech stuff if they could find the funding, which has been the main thing hamstringing the Russian military for the last three decades. They didn't need a war to develop the S-500 or the Kalibr cruise missile, among other programs, for instance.

Well, it looks like Russia is going to lose this one, unless they use nuclear weapons.  Over the last few weeks Ukraine has been steam-rolling over them.

Sure, but that's not really a result of technological deficiency; both sides fielding equipment of similar vintage at the start of the war. That has of course changed with Western gear rolling in, but the reason the Russians are losing has to do with failures of leadership, doctrine, tactics, and poor-quality troops.

 
(September 22, 2022 at 4:35 pm)Jehanne Wrote: Who's to say that some political border on some map is going to stop them?  Why not just drive their tank columns to Moscow to arrest Putin & Friends on the spot?

Well, Montgomery's first rule of war is "don't march on Moscow", and despite his many flaws that's one thing he got dead to rights. There's also the whole supply-line thing too.

The Ukrainians are already doing short strikes into Russia, hitting an oil plant, and supply and recruit depots. That makes good sense to me. Marching on Moscow? Not so much.

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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 22, 2022 at 10:50 pm)Helios Wrote: I wouldn't go that far. The Soviets were not a paper tiger and an invasion of modern  Russia would not be easy by any stretch. Let's avoid copying their hubris.

I think this war has indeed shown them to be a Potemkin army. The Ukrainians are defeating them, but generally using just the same equipment for tanks and airplanes at least. The weapon is only as good as the fighter wielding it. The difference in motivation is stark, and telling.

But no, attacking Russia is not an answer to anything. Despite their clear weaknesses, they have clear strengths as well -- room to retreat, General January, and so on.

The upshot of all this is that the Ukrainians, with this victory, have almost certainly forestalled any Russian offensive before the mud sets in, with a good two months before the ground freezes and permits mobile actions again. Not bad at all. I believe they've also inflicted an inferiority complex on the Russians. That could be important if it's actually the case.

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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 22, 2022 at 8:43 pm)Jehanne Wrote:
(September 22, 2022 at 5:49 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Russia’s going to lose this one even IF they use nuclear weapons.

Boru

On second thought, make that ‘especially if’.

And, so, is this it?  Global thermonuclear war??

Of course it isn't. Russia is extremely unlikely to use nukes. Even if they did, it's extremely unlikely to lead to a global war.

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 23, 2022 at 3:44 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Of course it isn't. Russia is extremely unlikely to use nukes. Even if they did, it's extremely unlikely to lead to a global war.

Boru

I agree Russia is unlikely to use nukes...but if they do, how much nuke use will the West allow before employing nukes against them? If Putin authorized one tac nuke strike and didn't face severe consequences, I'm pretty sure he would authorize more. They're really effective.

And if tac nukes are used against Russia for using tac nukes, how many of those will Putin allow before going thermonuclear?
I'm not anti-Christian. I'm anti-stupid.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
Lalala

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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 23, 2022 at 10:00 am)Mister Agenda Wrote:
(September 23, 2022 at 3:44 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Of course it isn't. Russia is extremely unlikely to use nukes. Even if they did, it's extremely unlikely to lead to a global war.

Boru

I agree Russia is unlikely to use nukes...but if they do, how much nuke use will the West allow before employing nukes against them? If Putin authorized one tac nuke strike and didn't face severe consequences, I'm pretty sure he would authorize more. They're really effective.

And if tac nukes are used against Russia for using tac nukes, how many of those will Putin allow before going thermonuclear?

If Russia uses tactical nukes, I don't think the West will do the same.

Instead, the West will intervene in the war more explicitly, and Russia will be declared a rogue state.  That could lead to WWIII, but Putin won't win (unless Donald becomes president).
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
To people who keep calling this a proxy war between the US and Russia or thinks Putin can be trusted. This Ukrainian frankly says screw you 



"Change was inevitable"


Nemo sicut deus debet esse!

[Image: Canada_Flag.jpg?v=1646203843]



 “No matter what men think, abortion is a fact of life. Women have always had them; they always have and they always will. Are they going to have good ones or bad ones? Will the good ones be reserved for the rich, while the poor women go to quacks?”
–SHIRLEY CHISHOLM


      
Reply
RE: Russia and Ukraine
Russia: ‘We’ve only lost 5937 soldiers.’

Also Russia: ‘We need to conscript 300 000 more.’

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
Apparently, one of my Dad's acquaintances is actually Russian and he has a family member who was among those 300,000 the Russians just drafted. Fortunately, he fled and has made it to Minsk. And, apparently, all that guy's connections to both the Old Country and Ukraine think the war is fucking stupid.
Comparing the Universal Oneness of All Life to Yo Mama since 2010.

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I was born with the gift of laughter and a sense the world is mad.
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