Russia and Ukraine

[Deesse23]

[Belacqua]

George Kennan, the architect of the U.S. cold war strategy warned in 1998 that NATO expansion was a "tragic mistake.”

Kissinger in 2014 warned that "to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country" and that the West therefore needs a policy that is aimed at “reconciliation.” He was also adamant that "Ukraine should not join NATO”

John Mearsheimer, a leading geopolitical scholar in the US today, said in 2015: "The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked [...] What we're doing is in fact encouraging that outcome.”

Jack F. Matlock Jr., US Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987-1991, warned in 1997 that NATO expansion was "the most profound strategic blunder, [encouraging] a chain of events that could produce the most serious security threat [...] since the Soviet Union collapsed.”

William Perry, Clinton's defense secretary, wrote in his memoir that to him NATO enlargement is the cause of "the rupture in relations with Russia.”

Noam Chomsky in 2015, saying that "the idea that Ukraine might join a Western military alliance would be quite unacceptable to any Russian leader" and that Ukraine's desire to join NATO "is not protecting Ukraine, it is threatening Ukraine with major war.”

Stephen Cohen, scholar of Russian studies, warned in 2014 that "if we move NATO forces toward Russia's borders [...] it's obviously gonna militarize the situation [and] Russia will not back off, this is existential.”

CIA director Bill Burns said in 2008: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for [Russia]" and "I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”

Malcolm Fraser, 22nd prime minister of Australia, warned in 2014 that "the move east [by NATO is] provocative, unwise and a very clear signal to Russia". He adds that this leads to a "difficult and extraordinarily dangerous problem.”

Paul Keating, former Australian PM, in 1997: expanding NATO is "an error which may rank in the end with the strategic miscalculations which prevented Germany from taking its full place in the international system.

Former US defense secretary Bob Gates in his 2015 memoirs: "Moving so quickly [to expand NATO] was a mistake. [...] Trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching [and] an especially monumental provocation.”

Sir Roderic Lyne, former British ambassador to Russia, warned a year ago that "[pushing] Ukraine into NATO [...] is stupid on every level." He adds "if you want to start a war with Russia, that's the best way of doing it.”

George Beebe, formerly the CIA's top Russia analyst, in January this year linked Russia's actions in Ukraine directly to NATO expansion, explaining that Russia "feels threatened" and "inaction on [the Kremlin’s] part is risky.”

Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute's senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies, wrote in a 1994 book that NATO expansion “would constitute a needless provocation of Russia.” Today he adds "we are now paying the price for the US’s arrogance.”

Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said in 2015 that if Ukraine continues down the path of joining NATO "it will prompt Russia to launch a large scale military operation [...] before we join NATO", "with a probability of 99.9%", likely "in 2021-2022”.

Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator and candidate for the Democratic nomination for President wrote: "We kicked [Russia] when they were down, we expanded NATO. [...] It was a blunder of monumental proportions [and] a self-fulfilling prophecy."

[Belacqua]

[awty]

[Fake Messiah]

Yeah, how is the whole “NATO imperialism” concept even supposed to work? Like, NATO… doesn’t conquer countries and force them to join, so… how is that supposed to be imperialist? Countries aren’t joining NATO because NATO is blackmailing to bomb them. Countries are joining it to make sure that they’ll be better defended if, say, a neighboring ex-empire decided to suddenly announce that they’re not a real state and start bombing their cities.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

[pocaracas]

George Kennan, the architect of the U.S. cold war strategy warned in 1998 that NATO expansion was a "tragic mistake.”

Kissinger in 2014 warned that "to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country" and that the West therefore needs a policy that is aimed at “reconciliation.” He was also adamant that "Ukraine should not join NATO”

John Mearsheimer, a leading geopolitical scholar in the US today, said  in 2015: "The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked [...] What we're doing is in fact encouraging that outcome.”

Jack F. Matlock Jr., US Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987-1991, warned in 1997 that NATO expansion was "the most profound strategic blunder, [encouraging] a chain of events that could produce the most serious security threat [...] since the Soviet Union collapsed.”

William Perry, Clinton's defense secretary, wrote in his memoir that to him NATO enlargement is the cause of "the rupture in relations with Russia.”

Noam Chomsky in 2015, saying that "the idea that Ukraine might join a Western military alliance would be quite unacceptable to any Russian leader" and that Ukraine's desire to join NATO "is not protecting Ukraine, it is threatening Ukraine with major war.”

Stephen Cohen, scholar of Russian studies, warned in 2014 that "if we move NATO forces toward Russia's borders [...] it's obviously gonna militarize the situation [and] Russia will not back off, this is existential.”

CIA director Bill Burns said in 2008: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for [Russia]" and "I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”

Malcolm Fraser, 22nd prime minister of Australia, warned in 2014 that "the move east [by NATO is] provocative, unwise and a very clear signal to Russia". He adds that this leads to a "difficult and extraordinarily dangerous problem.”

Paul Keating, former Australian PM, in 1997: expanding NATO is "an error which may rank in the end with the strategic miscalculations which prevented Germany from taking its full place in the international system.

Former US defense secretary Bob Gates in his 2015 memoirs: "Moving so quickly [to expand NATO] was a mistake. [...] Trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching [and] an especially monumental provocation.”

Sir Roderic Lyne, former British ambassador to Russia, warned a year ago that "[pushing] Ukraine into NATO [...] is stupid on every level." He adds "if you want to start a war with Russia, that's the best way of doing it.”

George Beebe, formerly the CIA's top Russia analyst, in January this year linked Russia's actions in Ukraine directly to NATO expansion, explaining that Russia "feels threatened" and "inaction on [the Kremlin’s] part is risky.”

Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute's senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies, wrote in a 1994 book that NATO expansion “would constitute a needless provocation of Russia.”  Today he adds "we are now paying the price for the US’s arrogance.”

Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said in 2015 that if Ukraine continues down the path of joining NATO "it will prompt Russia to launch a large scale military operation [...] before we join NATO", "with a probability of 99.9%", likely "in 2021-2022”.

Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator and candidate for the Democratic nomination for President wrote: "We kicked [Russia] when they were down, we expanded NATO. [...] It was a blunder of monumental proportions [and] a self-fulfilling prophecy."

None of that explains the WHY!!
Why does Russia feel threatened??
Why is Ukraine so much more important to that threat than countries already in NATO which DO border Russia, Latvia and Estonia?? Should I include Poland and Lithuania and their border with Kaliningrad?

It makes no F***ing sense!

And what ahppens afterwards?
What happens if Ukraine (with the help of the West) manages to repel the Russians? Then Ukraine definitely joins NATO and Russia is forced to face the "threat" in a diminished state. Which renders this invasion, under the perspective of Russia as the threatened country, to be suicide!
Again, it makes no F***ing sense!

So no. I don't believe that is even a reason for this invasion.

Unless the Russia High Command believed that their military really could take over Ukraine... which is now clearly not so.
So why persist? "Sunk cost" wins over "Save strength for the future"?
I can't believe a coutry's leader, especially one the size of Russia, would be so stupid in the XXI century.
That is why I think there must be another reason for this invasion.

[Belacqua]

Why does Russia feel threatened??

I expect if you look at Libya or Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan, and what the US has done there recently, the possibility of America attempting regime change in your country would seem undesirable. Generally the US wants other countries to have rulers which take orders from the US, so that the IMF and other American-controlled institutions can control their economies. They privatize the nation's resources and make sure the profits never go to the people of the country. 

Losing control of your own country and having it become a puppet of people who don't really care about anything other than resource extraction wouldn't be most people's first choice. 

Think of Allende 1973, for example.

Russia has a large amount of valuable energy. If they are able to freely sell it when and where they wish they have more power than the US wants them to have. It reduces America's control of western Europe and encourages new alliances with BRICS countries in which the US has far less sway. 

It doesn't seem surprising to me that most Russians would like to preserve their national sovereignty in fact as well as in name. Putin is popular at home, but even people who aren't crazy about him are probably even less excited about becoming a de facto colony of the US. 

Or there was Whitlam in 1975 who found out that winning an election isn't protection against the CIA kicking you out of a job. Or Hatoyama in 2010, who discovered that attempting to enact the will of the people in Okinawa can get you out on your ear right away if Hillary Clinton tells you to stop.

Unless the Russia High Command believed that their military really could take over Ukraine... which is now clearly not so. 

I understand that the armchair generals have a very clear view of the future. I am skeptical. Much of what I read seems based on propaganda-fueled fantasy and wishful thinking. History teaches that underestimating Russia seldom works out well. 

There is of course the possibility that the US would nuke them in order to prevent a takeover of Ukraine. If this happened Russia would lose, but so would everyone else. 

That is why I think there must be another reason for this invasion.

What is this reason?

[pocaracas]

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

@Belacqua

Russia has a large amount of valuable energy. If they are able to freely sell it when and where they wish they have more power than the US wants them to have. It reduces America's control of western Europe and encourages new alliances with BRICS countries in which the US has far less sway. 

Seeing as how Europe was the chief market for Russian energy and Russian energy was sanctioned, it seems like Putin’s decision to invade a European country was, you know, kinda stupid.

 I’m no economist, but it seems like cutting off your own market is a pretty duff strategy.

Boru