Russia and Ukraine

[Irreligious Atheist]

Thump didn't question what the Israeli PM said. He and I are in agreement on that, so that's a you problem. Thump only argued that the Israeli PM wouldn't be privy to that kind of information, because he's Israeli and not British or American or Ukrainian. I, on the other hand, tend to think the former Israeli PM would be very much privy to that information if he wanted to know it.

Actually, that is rather questioning the veracity of what he said. I don't know one way or the other; I took you post at face value, but that still doesn't tell me if he's right or not.

So please don't misrepresent my point.

I didn't misinterpret you. You didn't question the translation of the Israeli PMs comments like Helios did, but rather, you simply said, the Israeli PM is not British or Ukrainian, so he wouldn't know and could be subject to a blind spot here, and the Israeli PM is just getting it wrong. Well, my contention is that Israeli PMs are in the know. And you don't even need to be a former world leader to be on the up and up and have this information that the public isn't privy to. Do you think Hillary Clinton, a non-former leader of a state, is not privy to information that the public isn't privy to concerning the scuttling of the peace deal? How naive are you? The elite know what's going on in the world. You were better off refusing to debate the point and just posting Christopher Hitchens quotes like you did before, because even though the man was wrong in that particular quote of his, he still does a far better job arguing his point than you did, so please, go back to posting Hitch quotes.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Lol your delusions that you got one over Thump is fucking hilarious  

(oh and unlike you Thump didn't fall for a strait up lie)

[The Architect Of Fate]

Thump didn't question what the Israeli PM said. He and I are in agreement on that, so that's a you problem. Thump only argued that the Israeli PM wouldn't be privy to that kind of information, because he's Israeli and not British or American or Ukrainian. I, on the other hand, tend to think the former Israeli PM would be very much privy to that information if he wanted to know it.

Actually, that is rather questioning the veracity of what he said. I don't know one way or the other; I took you post at face value, but that still doesn't tell me if he's right or not.

So please don't misrepresent my point.

He has that tendency

[Thumpalumpacus]

I didn't misinterpret you. You didn't question the translation of the Israeli PMs comments like Helios did, but rather, you simply said, the Israeli PM is not British or Ukrainian, so he wouldn't know and could be subject to a blind spot here, and the Israeli PM is just getting it wrong.

That's rather questioning his knowledge, Do you need this explained in further detail? I've made my doubts plain, especially after you yourself noted that even "experts" get it wrong, as you did immediately before citing this.

You are indeed misrepresenting what I wrote. Not terribly surprising, in fact, run of the mill for you.

[Deesse23]

Putin has no incentive to stop the war.

Putin had no incentive to stop this war anyway. He's staked the survival of his regime on it, because he knew going in that defeat would almost certainly lead to the same dissolution that happened in 1992 in the wake of the defeat in Afghanistan, which took down Gorbachev, or the same dissolution that took down the Tsar after the defeat in 1917. He knew from the get-go that failure was not an option, and is now staring failure in its merciless face.

His regime will not survive this war, absent some hardline Stalinist GuLag crackdown which will only erode his support even further. The timer has already started on his rule; he's baking.

According to official russian sources in 2023 the budget for "interal security" has increased more than the defense budget. Almost as if the ability to fight EXTERNAL enemies is not the top concern.

[Thumpalumpacus]

According to official russian sources in 2023 the budget for "interal security" has increased more than the defense budget. Almost as if the ability to fight EXTERNAL enemies is not the top concern.

Not surprising. All pigs need their dogs.

[The Grand Nudger]

Turkish defense minister has said that ankara is ready to allow us ships to pass the straits after russia downed an mq9 reaper drone in the black sea.

Poor Vlad, just can't catch a break.

[The Grand Nudger]

Armchair generaling time. Western weapons are filtering in, and ukranian crews are just now either finishing training or about to. With the warm winter the mud never went away and it's estimated that conditions wont be amenable to a ca assault until sometime between mid april and late may. It's feasible that limited and low risk actions will occur in the interim..if, for no other reason, than live fire training for the new crews. What low hanging fruit do we think ukraine has a mind to snatch leading up to the crimean beach party this summer?

My money is on line of contact and artillery overwatch along the m14, where alot of the nightly ukranian strikes have been occurring for the past few weeks. Runs from rostov through mariupol and melitipol - along the narrow land bridge to the occupied south, opposite shore from ukraines latest mass drone attack. Crucially, it's good terrain for vehicles with lots of road web and isn't choked in mud and is far away from where russia has concentrated the majority of it;s troops with no convenient way to reposition quickly or unharrased, every inch already within the range of ukranian artillery. OTOH, it's in range of russian naval forces. An interruption anywhere along that line cuts crimea off from ground resupply outside of the kerch straight bridge. I suppose it's so obvious that we'd expect russia to have some sort of plan - but it's only so obvious because russia is in a seriously bad position there.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Armchair generaling time.  Western weapons are filtering in, and ukranian crews are just now either finishing training or about to.  With the warm winter the mud never went away and it's estimated that conditions wont be amenable to a ca assault until sometime between mid april and late may.  It's feasible that limited and low risk actions will occur in the interim..if, for no other reason, than live fire training for the new crews.  What low hanging fruit do we think ukraine has a mind to snatch leading up to the crimean beach party this summer?

My money is on line of contact and artillery overwatch along the m14, where alot of the nightly ukranian strikes have been occurring for the past few weeks.  Runs from rostov through mariupol and melitipol - along the narrow land bridge to the occupied south, opposite shore from ukraines latest mass drone attack.  Crucially, it's good terrain for vehicles with lots of road web and isn't choked in mud and is far away from where russia has concentrated the majority of it;s troops with no convenient way to reposition quickly or unharrased, every inch already within the range of ukranian artillery.  OTOH, it's in range of russian naval forces.  An interruption anywhere along that line cuts crimea off from ground resupply outside of the kerch straight bridge.  I suppose it's so obvious that we'd expect russia to have some sort of plan - but it's only so obvious because russia is in a seriously bad position there.

I've long thought that to be the most useful axis. I think that is a major objective deserving of a full effort. Reaching the coast may put the Ukrainians in range of the Russian navy, but it also puts the Azov Sea under Ukrainian missiles. They would also be able to attack the Kerch bridge with their naval drones, and perhaps even drop a full span. Such a move reaps all the benefits you mention, and let's face it, the loss of Crimea would almost certainly follow, dooming Russia's war aims once and for all.

I think while waiting for the ground to dry up, the Ukrainians should start working troops in the north to flank the Russians at Bakhmut. Posing a threat there to them -- with their troops worn out, combat power eroded, and morale apparently in the shitter -- would not only make some military sense, it would also prep the ground for a descent from the north, which would keep the Russians guessing about which shoe is going to drop where, just as in August when the Ukrainians made lots of noise about the south but then unleashed the eastern offensive with its terrific results.

My two cents, worth every penny you've paid for it.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Ah nice to have some discussion of tactics. Instead of having to waste our time hearing the whinging of defeatists