Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

His troops don't appear to think it was a win. They're not getting dachas in minsk. They're getting thrown in with the mobiks on the front line. Or maybe not. Wagner still holds the southern command and airfield assets. They looted some really nice kit too.

Ukraine took advantage of the situation launching multiple assaults across the entire line. They reportedly smashed the kadyrovites as they attempted to move toward whatever tik tok staging ground they were going to make shorts from next. Bakhmut got savaged. They moved the chains in luhansk and donbas and armor went over the dnipro out of kherson.

It's also come out in the wash (or ukraine is twisting the knife) that prigo had been in contact with ukrainian intelligence...and that might have had something to do with his apparent belief that even more of the military was ready to go along with a coup. Russia reported that it's command signals were getting scrambled, somehow, by someone, so they couldn't coordinate a response. There were russian tv channels hacked to broadcast prigos message.....and the citizens of moscow started getting random phone calls from unknown numbers telling them to take to the streets.

Putins regime is going to have to work overtime to figure out who else was involved in this shit. Expect the tables to get longer.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I can't imagine that he's going to keep pestering Putin from Belarus. Prigozhin is a mercenary (you can say 'private military contractor' if you like - most of them do) who re-negotiated his contract. For all his yammering about 'patriotism' and 'not shedding Russian blood', he made a deal. He's going to retire to a palatial dacha on the outskirts of Minsk and live like the fat cat oligarch he's always wanted to be. His troops are going to sign individual contracts with the Russian military (translation: no punishment). I don't know what his safety guarantee is, but I can think he'd enter into this without one.

So - Prigozhin wins, his troops win, Ukraine wins. And the only one left with egg on his face is Putin. 

Boru

Prig's got a nice spot of tea in his future, and as for his troops, they will be jammed into the front lines post-haste.

[The Grand Nudger]

Or maybe he’ll march on Minsk next. Everyone’s worried about prigo but even the Russians know better. In Russian government, the guy having his demands met is the one in charge. That’s not vlad or luka in this scenario.

Vlad straight up fled and everyone saw it. They’re heckling the Russian cops coming back into Rostov.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Or maybe he’ll march on Minsk next.  Everyone’s worried about prigo but even the Russians know better.  In Russian government, the guy having his demands met is the one in charge.  That’s not vlad or luka in this scenario.

Vlad straight up fled and everyone saw it.  They’re heckling the Russian cops coming back into Rostov.

As I wrote elsewhere: Putin has a choice here. He can either have Prig killed, or he can look like a leader who cannot deal with threats. Prigozhin will not be safe in Belarus anyway, given the government's leanings.

There's no way Putin comes out looking good no matter how events fall out. But Putin will not suffer him to live. He is an existential rival.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Also, just came across this:

Former CIA director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said on Sunday that Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin “lost his nerve” when he called off the rebellion he launched against Russian military leaders.

“Prigozhin kept his life but lost his Wagner Group, and he should be very careful around open windows in his new surroundings in Belarus, where he’s going,” Petraeus said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve. He was … within roughly two hours’ drive of the outskirts of Moscow, where they were starting to prepare defensive positions. This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would. And again, he decided to take the deal. He gave up this effort.”

[...]

“In the meantime, Putin fled Moscow, reportedly – didn’t stay around,” Petraeus said on CNN.

“I think the government has been shaken. Putin has been shaken personally. This makes him more vulnerable, arguably, than he has at any time in his two-decade rule of the Russian Federation. Who knows where this could go now,” the former CIA director said.

https://thehill.com/policy/international...rebellion/

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Also, just came across this:

Former CIA director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said on Sunday that Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin “lost his nerve” when he called off the rebellion he launched against Russian military leaders.

“Prigozhin kept his life but lost his Wagner Group, and he should be very careful around open windows in his new surroundings in Belarus, where he’s going,” Petraeus said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve. He was … within roughly two hours’ drive of the outskirts of Moscow, where they were starting to prepare defensive positions. This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would. And again, he decided to take the deal. He gave up this effort.”

[...]

“In the meantime, Putin fled Moscow, reportedly – didn’t stay around,” Petraeus said on CNN.

“I think the government has been shaken. Putin has been shaken personally. This makes him more vulnerable, arguably, than he has at any time in his two-decade rule of the Russian Federation. Who knows where this could go now,” the former CIA director said.

https://thehill.com/policy/international...rebellion/

(Bold mine)

You know who didn’t flee from the oncoming Russian forces? Zelenskyy.

Boru

[HappySkeptic]

Prigozhin is going to have an unfortunate case of Polonium in his tea. If he isn't in control of his forces, his usefulness to Putin is zero. As a strongman, Putin cannot afford to show weakness.

[The Grand Nudger]

Idk, I think that’s assuming Putin has a whole lot more juice left in him than the strong armed deal he just made suggests.

What’s a guy gotta do to murder his own myth, anyway? I think the worst bit we’ve heard about this is that it was picked up by Russian intel in advance….and they didn’t do anything then just like they haven’t done anything about him running his mouth these past many months.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Prigozhin is going to have an unfortunate case of Polonium in his tea.  If he isn't in control of his forces, his usefulness to Putin is zero.  As a strongman, Putin cannot afford to show weakness.

I’m not entirely sure about that. Prigozhin is savvy enough (and knows Putin well enough) that it’s hard to imagine that he would have taken this deal without some sort of safety net. My wild-arsed guess would be some sort of blackmail that even Putin’s nearest and dearest couldn’t ignore.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

Who's pmc is gonna march on moscow next? Shoigu's? Maybe Gazprom's? Gotta be something left in the kremlin they haven't already sold.