More protests Against The Theocratic Regime in Iran

[Thumpalumpacus]

Everyone today is sceptic about the Crown-Prince Pahlavi. After all his father was (in effect) one of the worst dictators of the 20th century. A bit like today’s MBS but perhaps even worse than him.
 
But this guy said in 2023 in the Women-Life-Freedom movement that he did not want any political power in Iran and that he was now more American than Iranian.
 
Now he is saying that he might play an intermediary role in a transition to a parliamentary monarchy or a total secular Republic.
 
The fact that he is close to Israel and that D. Trump is repeating him while talking to the Iranian people by saying “Take back your institutions, help is on the way” is not a bad thing either.

I think he doesn't have much heft in Iran, especially given his links to America, which sits poorly with Iranian historical memory. I suspect he's probably seen as a puppet -- perhaps useful even to Iranians, but not of lasting value.

[Leonardo17]

Grandnudger:
 
- I am not 100% sure about any of them (I’m talking about Netanyahu too). I am only talking about what should happen or what could happen if we (the rest of the world) were to seize this opportunity.
 
Yesterday (January 13th ) Elon Musk has reduced the price of starlink in Iran:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/free...48247.html
 

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This is how we know that possibly some 12,500 people have crossed to the next level of existence right now
 
This is comparable to the 55,000 deaths of the 2023 Earthquake in South-Eastern Turkey.
 
And I want to add that the Turkish police has dispersed the pro-democracy demonstration in front of the Iranian consulate in Istanbul this weekend.
 
Resisting change is another ego-based attitude. In 1979, this “Islamic Republic” was seen as some sort of shift from the Shah’s increasingly autocratic rule. In today’s world countries (like mine) are experimenting with the 4th or 5th version of political Islam which is also not working (with working classes struggling for daily needs and a quickly enriched elite which is acting like some sort of new aristocracy).
 
The only thing we need to remember is that this is not going to work. Even if the West lifted all the sanction, that regime is still crumbling under its own weight.
 

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Thumpalumpagus:
 
- The world is changing. These 12,500 people (+ the ones that are being incarcerated and will start to be executed) are dying while shouting “Long live Pahlavi”.
 

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Monarchs have this legitimacy that tend to remain unchanged in time. It’s a state model that works well in many Arab countries and other countries like Jordan or Morocco for instance.
 
Besides he has made it clear that he will only be a transitional figure toward a regime that’s other than the Mullah Regime.
 
We need to understand Iran’s situation is very bad. The ordinary people are seen as a mob that is only there to support and serve the new aristocracy that lives a life full of riches and well-being while the ordinary people are unable to live with their salaries (Many cannot afford eggs or meat or turn on the heating in their houses). It’s not like Russia where the Regime is still able to pay good salaries to its people while making the country function in a way that is based on oil sale to China and India and a lot of spending on military industries.
 
These guys know that they are going to die. But in order to be able to live, they need the mullah’s gone. And Pahlavi knows that.
 

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But I really don’t know what Trump and Netanyahu’s plan is. I wasn’t expecting Trump to send these tweet to Iranian protesters. But maybe something is being prepared right now. If that is the case that should be good for the region and beyond.

[The Grand Nudger]

I bet elmo would sell you a fucking kidney right now if the price was right. He set fire to his otherwise very popular business empire when he went full sieg heil. Turns out it's hard to sell electric cars to tree hugging libs while you go doge on all their private data for the mad king. Anybody interested in a one way trip to mars? Discount price if you transport his seed as a carry on!

[Leonardo17]

I not I must have exaggerated a bit. Elon Musk is still a very smart guy. But I am not that sure about him a psychologically balanced person. His personal life is none of my business but he has 14 kids. That’s a high number for a business men who probably lives on a high schedule.
 
And yes, he is a very smart man. But he is not a Steve Jobs or Bill Gates kind of smart guy. He is more of a Jeff Bezos kind of smart guy.
 
So if I met him I would tell him that we are not locusts. We can’t simply consume all the riches of this planet and then move to the next planet (even if we could). That’s the “balance” I think is lacking in this guy.
 
D. Trump on the other hand might be undertaking some very smart moves right now. Maybe, this whole Greenland issue is a distraction (Greenland is only important for submarine activities and that was during the cold war, there is really nothing in Greenland other than some 50,000 “citizens” + ice – lots of ice).
 
Yet Venezuela is the N-1 oil reserve of the planet. Iran is the Third oil reserve of the Planet. Again: they are unable to exploit that oil completely because no investment was done in the oil industry since 1979. That’s very similar to Venezuela’s oil industry. And all of it is going to China (89%).
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-rises...51007.html
 
 
So if he takes Venezuela + Iran (or removes the regime there), He gets a lot of leverage against China. He (and following administrations) will have greater leverage on rare-earths that China has a monopoly upon that are crucial for electric batteries, microchips, Tesla Automobiles etc.
 
So D. Trump has this “strong” energy in him. But that’s a very ego-based energy. That’s what Marianne Williamson is pointing out since Trump’s first presidency in 2016.
 
- But he won’t be around in two years and nothing is certain about the continuation of the MAGA movement after him.

[Angrboda]

So D. Trump has this “strong” energy in him. But that’s a very ego-based energy. That’s what Marianne Williamson is pointing out since Trump’s first presidency in 2016.
 
- But he won’t be around in two years and nothing is certain about the continuation of the MAGA movement after him.

I wouldn't bet a lot of money on that.