US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[The Grand Nudger]

Why not, we have. It was the contention of western intelligence that the removal of khameini would put an even battier theocrat in power, fwiw.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm hopeful. The Iranians really wanted rid of the Ayatoilet. Maybe more importantly, they have had it with Islam. I can't see them settling for another theocracy.

It really depends on the motivations and energy of the Iranian public. I know after the recent unrest they're pissed-off, and this may work out, but I also know that the security forces there don't mind killing a few thousand people.

[AFTT47]

I'm hopeful. The Iranians really wanted rid of the Ayatoilet. Maybe more importantly, they have had it with Islam. I can't see them settling for another theocracy.

It really depends on the motivations and energy of the Iranian public. I know after the recent unrest they're pissed-off, and this may work out, but I also know that the security forces there don't mind killing a few thousand people.

Yeah, there are a lot of variables. If Trump really gives a shit about these people he will probably have to commit to an occupation force, at least temporarily. Who knows. We have seen the near-miraculous resilience of the Ukrainian people. I guess we'll see how the Iranians stack up.

I know I'm sure rooting for them. They've been through Hell and they have a lot of potential.

[Thumpalumpacus]

It really depends on the motivations and energy of the Iranian public. I know after the recent unrest they're pissed-off, and this may work out, but I also know that the security forces there don't mind killing a few thousand people.

Yeah, there are a lot of variables. If Trump really gives a shit about these people he will probably have to commit to an occupation force, at least temporarily. Who knows. We have seen the near-miraculous resilience of the Ukrainian people. I guess we'll see how the Iranians stack up.

I know I'm sure rooting for them. They've been through Hell and they have a lot of potential.

I'm rooting for them as well. Having lived there for four years of my upbringing, and been recipient of their gracious hospitality, I only wish the best for them; I see the culture as a second home in some ways.

Epronovost over at AD mentioned, however, something I had not considered at all, to wit, that Pakistan has essentially declared war on Afghanistan. When you add that into our American attack, the thought I have is that we may well have a huge swath of land and people, many of whom already radicalized, forming a very big area of instability that may give rise to further terrorist movements using the instability to further goals we just don't understand.

Destabilized or overthrown Iranian government, Pakistan probably defeating Afghanistan if that goes to full blows, this may have effects that redound for decades, even if we don't get sucked into another forever war. What a breeding ground for even more extremists.

[Fake Messiah]

This will probably not result in a regime change as they have a succession plan for the next guy: Mojtaba Khamenei, Sadeq Larijani, Alireza Arafi...

Each one is more anti-US and fundamentalist than the last.

Plus, now they have a religious martyr to push a more radical agenda.

[Deesse23]

I doubt the regime will collapse. It seems to be well entrenched, even if feared and hated greatly. There is much posturing going on in order to save face, but they will have to agree with terms of Israel and the USA. Those in return will have to realize that the theocracy won't be broken.

It will be a classic "meh".

[h4ym4n]

Aww, look what a pedophile/pedophile protector can do for you to stay out of prison and hell.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

'Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He's weak, and he's ineffective.' - Donald J. Trump, 29 November 2011.

Boru

[Leonardo17]

Happy Sceptic:
 
Many left-wing people all over the world are highly critical of such military interventions. Bush’s “War on Terror” is mentioned by many as examples of how such interventions are doomed to fail. But I look at this this way:
 
1) Dictators have huge egos and they can easily sacrifice 50% of their own population because they merely seen ordinary people as humans. Iran’s Shah leaving Iran in 1979 or Britain leaving India in 1947 are the exception not the rule. If no one had stopped Mussolini militarily he would have probably ruled Italy until his death and political power would go to one of his sons and this would have probably lasted until now.
 
2) In spirituality there is a concept called Karma. As an individual you cannot expect to act completely irresponsibly by not working, not exercising, eating junk food, being rude to other people etc. and not face any consequence of such bad behavior. The same is true for nations. While there are cases of nations being in dire situation without any wrongdoing of their own (like Georgia or Ukraine for instance) this is not what is happening here.
 
AFTT47:
 
- Populist leaders within democracies have the ability to surprise us with their good deeds every once in a while
 
Paleophyte:
 
- He is not a martyr. He murdered 30,000 of his own people just 1 month ago. He sold the corpses of the protesters to their families in return for a sum of 5000 $ or in return for lying about their relatives and registering them as Islamist security forces:

BBC Article
 
Rev Rye:
 
- I’m expecting a script that is similar to Iraq. The US might bomb them for several years and then send ground troops to destroy whatever is left of the regime.
Or: The IRG being greatly weakened, someone might make a claim to power (someone with weapons) and the positive outcome might happens within less time than anticipated.
 
I’m not pessimistic about that. There is the Iranian diaspora + the Pahlavi dynasty + the people of Iran who can rebuild the country once the work is done. So if D. Trump + Netanyahu have a plan for Iran, that plan is very likely to work in this case.
 
In the Meantime:
 
- Gulf states are carrying most of the burden of Iranian attacks:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pass...07975.html
 
The Strait of Hormuz has also become a dangerous route for maritime trade.
 
/ I see this as Karma as well: Saudi Arabia + Allies have been hostile to democratic ideas and therefore have blocked Iran’s transition to a secular and democratic state in many ways. So it is only normal that “The theocratic / Muslim” Regime is now hitting them. I think they really deserve it

[AFTT47]

Here are Bill Clinton's thoughts on this. A very thoughtful, sober speech. I had forgotten how presidential he could be and why he was so respected abroad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePxiuGJ26l8