US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

BrianSoddingBoru:
 
“No one is claiming the Iranian regime is made of good or even semi-good guys. They’re basically a collection of brutal thugs. But that in no way justifies an interventionist, elective war. No only did the US have no right or justification to attack Iran, but quite frankly, those guys suck at regime change (at least by force of arms). A surer process is diplomacy, supporting anti-government groups, and giving money to poor people.
Unfortunately, your boy Trump has ignored the proven benefits of soft power in favour of shiny, expensive things that go boom. The only difference between trumpism and toddlerism is in the spelling.
Boru”
 
- I think there are several (many) anti-Trump “No King” rallies in many US cities today (together with counter-demonstrations in some cities).
 
1) You need to know that I am with you on this. I’m not a Trump supporter. If you don’t show your limits to these guys these are people who are ready to dismantle all of  your democracy for their personal entitled benefits. So this is N-1.
 
N-2) I am not a social media user, but even secondary social media here (like youtube) is flooded with titles like “Muslim Iranians are defeating Netanyahu”, “Israel is being destroyed by Iran”, “Iranian heroes are resisting to the entire planet” and other nonsense like that.
 
I’m not saying that there are “good guys” vs. “Bad guys”.
 
All I am saying is (for instance) Gulf countries did not do anything to Iran, Tuktuk drivers in Bangkok did not do anything to Iran, so what’s going on here?
 
Is this “Asymmetric warfare? If so, how is this fair to all other actors of the planet who are now going to face an energy shock on their economies? Or is this also Trump’s doing?
 
/Look: this is how I am wired. I don’t like Mr D. Trump since his first term. To me he will always be the guy who contradicted Dr. Fauci live during the height of the Covid pandemic. But I simply need to see the end of the event right now. I don’t know what he + Netanyahu were intending in the first place. Just like Bush’s campaign on Irak back in 2003 we first need to see what’s happening here.
 
I’m not going to blindly support these (whatever it is you would call them) without even understanding the position of the rest of the world toward them. And Europe is in this too. If you are critical of Wahsington, are you also critical of the EU who just added the IRG to their lists of terror organizations?
If no, than how do you let what is (by definition) a terror organization constitute a permanent threat to all Gulf states and let them control a sea route through which 20% of the planet’s energy is circulating?
 
I’m ok with all forms of criticism but you still need to put all of these pieces together.
 
Even if they capitulated today. What makes you think that a regime that “sees its own citizens as İsraeli combatants” will keep its promises and (for instance) not build nuclear weapons in return for the lifting of economic sanctions?
 
I could walk out of this forum today but even so, you still would have to find some sort of answer to these questions.
 
So:
Anti-Trump: Yes
Anti-Netanyahu: check
But Pro IRI: No can do.
 
(is that clear?)  

No one’s asking you to be pro-IRI. But you are supporting an illegal, unjustified war. I can fully understand you wanting things to be better in Iran, but this war will never, ever, EVER give you the change you hope for.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but if you’re supporting Trump’s war, you’re a Trump supporter.

Boru

[Belacqua]

 
I’m not saying that there are “good guys” vs. “Bad guys”.
 

You're right that when a war gets going and everybody chooses up sides, people tend to see everything in black and white. We should definitely make an effort to resist unthinking rah-rah behavior. 

That said, the state of Israel is undeniably doing terrible things. If ever there were "Bad guys," they are it. And the US, as it always has, makes this possible through military, financial, and logistical support. This is not just Trump, this is long-standing policy. 

It looks as though their war this time isn't going to be an effective opposition to the conservative leadership of Iran. In fact there are large pro-government rallies in Iran these days. And of course the typical American ineptness of the war effort will almost certainly end with Iran having more power and more respect. So the understandable desire to improve things in Iran will not be helped this time around.

But wait and see... if Iran shows that it's a powerful country, the one which finally had the courage to stand up to Israel/US evil, it could have good results domestically in the long run. A rich and powerful country, which doesn't have to live constantly under threat, may be less likely to hold on to a controlling conservative government.  

There will perhaps be good results of this war if we look at it in an "accelerationist" kind of way. America's ridiculous actions currently will hasten the inevitable decline of its international power, and make it clear that we are in a multi-polar world. Other countries will benefit by getting out from under America's control, which is being revealed as self-defeating and ineffective. 

I feel sorry for the Western European countries which continue to kowtow to America. The rest of the world is detaching from the old order, beginning to trade oil in Yuan, and accept the new system. 

Trump is a very useful lightning rod here, because he has embodied and accelerated movements that were already well under way. We can all blame him, as if he is the one who ruined everything, when really he's just a symptom of the rot.

[Paleophyte]

Iran has begun charging for safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz, raising the prospect that the only path to peace may now involve empowering the Ayatollahs with a 20% boost to Iran's GDP as they prove that they can beat Trump at grift.

[Leonardo17]

BrianSoddingBoru:
 

“No one’s asking you to be pro-IRI. But you are supporting an illegal, unjustified war. I can fully understand you wanting things to be better in Iran, but this war will never, ever, EVER give you the change you hope for.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but if you’re supporting Trump’s war, you’re a Trump supporter.
Boru”

 
If I am correct the great majority of the MAGA base is also completely opposed to the “endless military campaigns” too. It costs a lot of money and it brings a lot of your military personnel under harm’s way.
 
But I don’t see this as the US starting a war of choice. I see it as a country which was a strong and respectable country that fell into the hands of religious fanatics who are completely irrational and erratic people who want the whole world to start functioning accordingly with some interpretation of Shiite Islam.
 
They are not just “testing the waters”. They support terrorism worldwide, they have proxies in all of the Middle East, they don’t care about international law and they are constantly provoking both their own neighbors and have always been in a collision course with the US and Israel.
 
All I am saying is that governments need to have a minimum of decency. Look at Afghanistan. The US simply took off now they are at war with Pakistan (Again: another Muslim vs. Muslim conflict).
 
So something was going to hit them sooner or later. If it’s Bibi and Donald Trump, it works fine with me.
 
But I have my reserves: I don’t know about the oil industry facilities. But civilian facilities and nuclear cites need to be spared as much as possible.
 
Also: Cities like Teheran are now half empty. Anyone who had the means to flee has already fled.
 
So I’m not really supporting anything either. I’m in the “wait and see” mode right know. All I know is that that this looks a lot like George Bush Senior’s military intervention to Irak. But there are many priorities here:

1) To be vigilant and to not hit civilian infrastructures like schools, Hospitals, residence areas etc.

Just I a note: I really hate how Israel is even hitting Christian villages in southern Lebanon.

2) To maintain dialogue with regional actors. If there is a flow of refugee most of them might move into Turkey. If the US decides to withdraw, Iran may keep harassing Saudi Arabia and its satellites with these ballistic missiles etc.

So my main worry here is “Does this administration really have what it takes to handle this very delicate crisis here?”

Since I don’t know that, I can’t really say that I support or do not support this military intervention. So my proposal is to let thing happen right now.
 
Belaqua:
 

“It looks as though their war this time isn't going to be an effective opposition to the conservative leadership of Iran. In fact there are large pro-government rallies in Iran these days. And of course the typical American ineptness of the war effort will almost certainly end with Iran having more power and more respect. So the understandable desire to improve things in Iran will not be helped this time around.”

 
- These are just brainwashed mobs and they account to perhaps 20% of the total population in Iran. Right now their situation is as bad as Cuba. They have no water, no electricity, inflation is high, and many Iranians are unable to buy fruits of meat for instance. Many families need loans to buy meat. They know they’ll get killed if they descend to the streets. But if they don’t they’ll eventually die anyways.
 

“But wait and see... if Iran shows that it's a powerful country, the one which finally had the courage to stand up to Israel/US evil, it could have good results domestically in the long run. A rich and powerful country, which doesn't have to live constantly under threat, may be less likely to hold on to a controlling conservative government.”
 

- That option ended when D Trump walked away from the first nuclear agreement with Iran. Now if D. Trump makes a deal with them, how can they be sure that D. Trump will keep his word (he broke a treaty that had come as a result of very tough negotiations with Iran).
 
- And After Mahsa Amini + the January massacres this regime cannot hold on to power anymore no matter what happens next. It’s all over anyway.
 

“I feel sorry for the Western European countries which continue to kowtow to America. The rest of the world is detaching from the old order, beginning to trade oil in Yuan, and accept the new system.”

 
- Europe is gradually stepping in as an independent political and military power of its own. And power balances are gradually shifting in this world. My only hope is that it shifts toward a more rule based / more civilized kind of international environment. I don’t like Tarzan-like personas like Putin or D. Trump etc.
 
Paleophyte:
 

“Iran has begun charging for safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz, raising the prospect that the only path to peace may now involve empowering the Ayatollahs with a 20% boost to Iran's GDP as they prove that they can beat Trump at grift.”

 
- As I said: This is illegal. Straits like the strait of Hormuz need to remain open to the free passage of ships. If they were little kids I would beat the hell out of these guys.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Iran has begun charging for safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz, raising the prospect that the only path to peace may now involve empowering the Ayatollahs with a 20% boost to Iran's GDP as they prove that they can beat Trump at grift.

HAHA!!

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

An Iranian missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on Friday injured 10 U.S. service members, according to multiple outlets.

Two of the service members were seriously injured, a U.S. official familiar with the incident told The Associated Press. The missile damaged several U.S. refueling craft and several unmanned aerial vehicles, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials.

The Hill has reached out to the Defense Department for comment.

The incident marks the second successful attack on the base this month as Iran strikes back at a joint U.S.-Israeli assault. A previous attack on March 1 killed 26-year-old Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington. He is one of 13 service members who have been killed since the start of “Operation Epic Fury.” Six were killed in an office space in Kuwait, while another six died in a refueling plane crash.

Over 300 service members have been injured in the conflict, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) told The Hill earlier on Friday. Ten remain seriously wounded while 273 have returned to duty.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/58054...us-troops/

To follow up, these images purport to show an American E-3 AWACS radar plane after the raid:





https://www.twz.com/air/images-purported...ian-strike

These have not been confirmed authentic, but TWZ is a reliable source for military news imo.

...and:

The Pentagon is putting together plans for weeks of ground operations in Iran as U.S. forces amass in the region, the Washington Post reported.

Citing multiple U.S. officials, the Post report suggested ground operations could involve both conventional infantry and special operations elements, but would not yet rise to the level of a full-scale invasion.

Decisions on whether or not to green light operations, which would put U.S. troops at substantially more risk to Iranian threats, now rest with President Donald Trump.

The Post’s report comes as U.S. military assets continue to flood the region. On Friday, U.S. Marines and sailors assigned to the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group arrived in U.S. Central Command waters.

The group, which is led by the America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and includes the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, departed earlier this month from its homeport of Sasebo, Japan.

The Pentagon has also confirmed elements from the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters and a brigade combat team are slated to deploy to the Middle East. Based out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the 82nd acts as the Army’s rapid-response force and is often among the first units sent to respond to emerging crises.

https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/yo...s-in-iran/

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

^And yet - according to the US Secretary of I Like to Play Soldier - Iran’s military capability has been ‘completely obliterated’ (he also uses the term ‘decimated’, clearly not knowing what it means).

So I guess all the ground troops heading for Iran are going to open up artisan bakeries and boutiques.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

"Trading oil in yuan" isn't a multipolar world. Just a new boss. Good lord, the fantasies these multipolar worldists have had to come up with in order to justify their affinity for expansionist dictatorships is stunning. Who are the players supposed to be? China, iran and russia? Awesome.

[Leonardo17]

^And yet - according to the US Secretary of I Like to Play Soldier - Iran’s military capability has been ‘completely obliterated’ (he also uses the term ‘decimated’, clearly not knowing what it means).

So I guess all the ground troops heading for Iran are going to open up artisan bakeries and boutiques.

Boru

The biggest problem that the IRI is causing to the whole Middle East is not its ballistic missile or even Uranium enrichment program.
 
It’s the fact that it is a terrorist regime that controls several proxy militias in the region. Right now the state of Lebanon is in a crossfire between Israel on one side and Iran backed Hezbollah on the other side. The Lebanese army is not strong enough to face any of these tow. The same thing is happening in Palestine. The secular Fatah group is simply too weak to stop Hamas. And Iran as a result controls what is happening in both these countries.
 
Which is why Lebanese people are also asking for some sort of foreign troops in their country (otherwise the Lebanese state will simply collapse). But France + The UK do not seem to be willing to do that. Other Arab countries + the East Roman Empire are also completely unwilling to send ground troops there.
 
So the only option (for  Lebanon) is a different type of Iran. Once things begin to change in Iran
a) The Netanyahu Government can be sent away at the ballots in Israel or
b) The US can threaten Israel with not sending weapons anymore and whatever government comes after Netanyahu, they will have to take into account the international community’s opinion on their (illegal) actions in the whole region.