US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[Ivan Denisovich]

I don’t believe Iran has any ground force at this point either. The Kurds cannot march into Teheran with their AK-47’s. Israel’s already overstretched army cannot do anything like that either. But If D. Trump decided to undertake something in the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan, the whole thing would fall within days. But that’s only my prediction and I’m not a military expert.
 
Right now Iran seems pretty confident it can win the whole thing by terrorizing people with drones, missiles and proxy groups who also basically operate with missiles and drone and terrorist activities whenever they can.
 
To me this is not even military strategy. Ordinary countries would not even have military academies if things were that simple.
 
So on a personal level and despite the poor leadership of D. Trump and his cabinet, I don’t expect Iran to “win” in any area.
 
See: when you cannot export oil and have to shut down your oil wells it is very difficult to reopen these wells after a month or two. For a country that only produces oil and natural gas thanks to the Mullahs, this is likely to have huge impacts on the economy even if the US sanction where to be lifted.
 
So I am not saying this is going to work well for D. Trump and his cabinet. I’m only saying that eventually, it’s not going to work for the Revolutionary Guards either

Iran already won by yet again showing the world what kind of a cuntish clown orange wannabe fuhrer is. Iran does not have to do anything but simply let this turd to drag US reputation even lower.

USA lost when it allowed issrael to drag it into this war.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

@Leonardo17

So I am not saying this is going to work well for D. Trump and his cabinet. I’m only saying that eventually, it’s not going to work for the Revolutionary Guards either 

It’s already not worked out well for Trump. Whether works out well for the IRGC remains to be seen.

And what makes you think Iran has no ground forces?

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

Idk if it would take days. Probably more like weeks to get in. The trouble isn’t getting in though, Leo. It’s supporting troops in the us manner and getting them out, once in.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

@Leonardo17

But If D. Trump decided to undertake something in the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan, the whole thing would fall within days. 

Predictions of how long any war will last is a bit tricky.


[i]“…six days, six weeks, I doubt six months" - Donald Rumsfeld, predicting the length of US military involvement in Iraq, only off by eight years.[/i]

Boru

[Paleophyte]

Just like in the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro, I think that military advisors to D. Trump are doing a pretty good job.

You mean that it was a violation of US and International law for no sane reason that utterly failed to improve the situation in Venezuela, the USA, or the world at large? Yup, there are some striking similarities.

You can compare this to Dr. Fauci during the Covid crisis.

The way that, despite having one of the greatest experts in the field, Trump managed to shit the bed and get millions of people killed? That sort of comparison?

I note that you still aren't making any predictions. Three months into this three-day conflict and we have yet more fighting in the Strait of Hormuz. No prospect of peace. No improvement in conditions for those living in Iran. Ayatollahs empowered. Gas prices 50% above what they were six months ago. Oil prices double what they were six months ago. And the real pain hasn't even arrived yet. We're still running on strategic reserves of petroleum. When this crisis finally draws those down we'll see real shortages.

Here's my outlook, from least to most horrifying:

• TACO: Trump gives it up as a bad job, hoping that everybody will just forget about it, and leaving the Middle East a complete mess for years. The Ayatollahs do a few victory laps before opening the Strait as a toll highway. I view this as unlikely since it isn't Trump that'll be doing the dying in any of the other scenarios. We might see oil prices ease by Christmas.
  
• Stalemate: What we have now, give or take. The Strait remains closed to all but a trickle of traffic. Given the utter lack of political support for any solution, this seems likely. Suffering continues on all sides. This probably isn't sustainable for anybody, so it'll break sooner or later.
  
• Chinese Buy-out: The Chinese finally get annoyed that the US is fucking up their economy and uses its political pressure and military might to open the Straits without the US. This would put the Straits under Chinese control and sideline the US as an international power. Personally, I think that Xi is too smart to get embroiled in this mess, but if the oil shortages get too painful that might change. I'd like to think that the EU might try something similar, but I don't think that they have either the political will or the military power.
  
• Boots on the Ground: The US lands a few tens of thousands of troops in Iran. The death toll is appalling for everybody involved. Personally, this one doesn't seem likely to me. Too much risk for Trump. He'd have no qualms letting a lot of American soldiers die for his stupidity if it wasn't going to blow back on him politically.
  
• The Nuclear Option: In a state of panicked madness with midterms looming, oil prices rising, and support collapsing, Trump does the unthinkable. This doesn't seem plausible at the moment, but if the situation gets a lot worse, then this could become a bigger worry.
  

There. That's what the future looks like without rose-coloured glasses. If you think differently, then make a prediction of your own and learn how naive you are.

[Leonardo17]

@Leonardo17

So I am not saying this is going to work well for D. Trump and his cabinet. I’m only saying that eventually, it’s not going to work for the Revolutionary Guards either 

It’s already not worked out well for Trump. Whether works out well for the IRGC remains to be seen.

And what makes you think Iran has no ground forces?

Boru

In my previous post I added an article about the Iranian air force (or whatever existed before June 2025). Almost all of it is from the 1970’s + some Russian aircrafts that were added to it then. So what about tanks? Or artillery? Or anything you might need to put up a resistance move like the one in Ukraine? Can you resist Abrams Tanks and Humvees with drones and missiles only? Or will there be some sort of urban guerilla tactics to resist the invaders?  
 
My theory is that they have assumed that no one would dare to attack them from the ground anyway, so they concentrated all their efforts on underground drone and missile capabilities. And they have done so for at least a decade, anticipating an air-superiority based attack on their country, putting everything of value a few meter underground.
 
Paleophyte:
 
- I disagree with what D. Trump is doing to Cuba. I don’t think anybody has the right to change another country’s regime by starving its population.
 
I also used to like Hugo Chavez in the past. But as I have learned more about him I decided that he was truly an oppressor and the regime in Venezuela had to end one way or the other. Of course the whole thing is illegal, but pragmatically speaking it was still a success.
 

“I note that you still aren't making any predictions. Three months into this three-day conflict and we have yet more fighting in the Strait of Hormuz. No prospect of peace. No improvement in conditions for those living in Iran. Ayatollahs empowered. Gas prices 50% above what they were six months ago. Oil prices double what they were six months ago. And the real pain hasn't even arrived yet. We're still running on strategic reserves of petroleum. When this crisis finally draws those down we'll see real shortages.”

 
- Nothing is that dramatic at this point. I think the German Chancelor Merz is exaggerating when he says that “The US is being humiliated”. Let’s just forget about military might. The US has superior technology and (despite the D. Trump factor) better organizational and decision making still. The US does not rely on fake news like “Israel using climate weapons that brings heavy snow and destabilizes the climate in Iran”. If you read between the lines, they are saying that everything, even the climate is the fault of Zionist Israel. These are Islamo-fascists. So if D. Trump is 4 on a scale of 10, they are at 1 or perhaps 2.
 
And many things are still evolving in the strait of Hormuz. I am not sure but it seems possible that the strait can be opened at least to some extent by the US:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/stra...01358.html
 
On the Nuclear Option:
 
- Teheran does not care about civilian losses. They might even use people as living shields if the bombing restarted.
 
My final view on all of this is this: Obama’s deal was not a bad deal. D. Trump could not just cancel a deal that was already signed but he did it anyway. I’M also learning that the Clinton administration could have signed a similar deal with North Korea that would put aside all their nuclear ambitions in return for some minor concessions but that Bill Clinton was too busy with Israel and Palestine at the time and that the Bush administration after him chose a tougher stand on North Korea (that apparently ended in North Korea building nuclear weapons).
 
/So these are all very serious issues. And yes, the US isn’t always the “good guy”. But because of that reason, why does a country with so many riches and potential bring itself to the brink of oblivion and all of this for some ideological obsession based on their political Islamist ideology?
 
Let me explain: They are claiming to defend the Palestinians against Israel right? Let’s take a look at Palestine and also at Lebanon. Does anyone here believe that more religious extremism and violence based behavior can make life easier for anyone in this region? Personally I don’t see any difference between Political Islam and Netanyahu’s right extremist cabinet. The only real change there can happen after the October elections in Israel with a less religious extremist government in Israel. (and we can only hope that things will have evolved in Iran until that date)

[The Grand Nudger]

Ukraine very notably did not have tanks or artillery. They went with drones..and russia followed by using iranian drones. Iran is more than capable of inflicting mass casualties on us forces should we decide to put boots on the ground to march on tehran.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

@Leonardo17

Can you resist Abrams Tanks and Humvees with drones and missiles only?

Drones are phenomenally effective tank killers. In fact, drones are better than tanks when it comes to stopping tanks. And they don’t cost nearly as much.

Boru

[Deesse23]

Chinese Buy-out: The Chinese finally get annoyed that the US is fucking up their economy and uses its political pressure and military might to open the Straits without the US. This would put the Straits under Chinese control and sideline the US as an international power. Personally, I think that Xi is too smart to get embroiled in this mess, but if the oil shortages get too painful that might change. I'd like to think that the EU might try something similar, but I don't think that they have either the political will or the military power.

China:
Chinas strategy seems to be to do step #1 before #2 and #3. China seems to be invested in keeping good relations with traditionally friendly regime slike North Korea and Russia, and apply military power towards competitors across open waters like Japan, Taiwan and Philippines. Getting involved in the Middle East seems to be at least 2 steps ahead.

EU:
Eu will never.ever "push" to open the straits with its military, not as a leading or single entity. Individual nations, maybe, but not EU as a whole. No chance. EU however may "assist" whomever is going to take care of this, by supporting with logistics or ships to patrol, but not in a hostile environment, only as "peace keepers".

[Belacqua]

Very interesting take here from an independent journalist with a good track record:

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/h...ed-robbery

Because Trump's way of going about things is amateurish and chaotic, it gives the impression that he doesn't have any real planning behind what he's doing. This journalist argues that despite the poor execution he is actually following a plan laid out years ago by more competent, more evil people like Dick Cheney. And of course the oil companies are behind it, and the oil companies are the only ones that benefit.

Seen in that way, the US is succeeding with its plans, and Chevron in particular is winning big time.