(August 11, 2017 at 10:08 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote:

(August 11, 2017 at 9:35 pm)vorlon13 Wrote: So, they already realize the refugees would be ESPECIALLY annoying.

Good.

Maybe they might reconsider their courses of action that have got them into this cluster fuck.

For the Chinese government, refugees are a small problem that can be solved by shooting a few to discourage the rest from coming.

North Korea falling and unified Korea allied to the US is a big problem that requires a steady and hard headed policy, not unduly influenced by minor considerations such as the plight of the million of starving people living under Kim regime, to prevent

How's that going to work??

Shooting a few refugees will impress the others in that immediate vicinity, but with no communication infrastructure to alert the rest of the refugees they had better return to their burning radioactive cities, firing squads and cruel task masters if they know what's good for them, China is going to have to just keep killing and killing and killing refugees to make their policy apparent to all of them.

That much killing might be enough for the rest of the world to realize the gang running China is also a bunch of needlessly cruel motherfuckers too.

We should be more worried about the Chinese not dealing with the refugee crisis and creating a monsterous humanitarian crisis not seen in asia since pol pot,  than their not being able to deal with the refugee crisis.

Refugees don't come in one giant swarm in 24 hours.   Even millions of refugees on the move still take months, plenty of time for words to spread.  

The Chinese will seal the borders with armed police and blockades.  Refugees without basic food water and medical service will become desperate and try to storm the Chinese blockade.  The Chinese television will show show images of policemen wounded or killed and Refugees will be shown rioting.  Propaganda pitch reminiscent of trumpian tirades against the Mexicans or European rightwimg tirades against Syrian refugees will permeat official airwaves.   And the Chinese will justify violent crack downs on the refugees attempting to enter.  Shots will be fired.  Refugees will be killed,  Intimidating helicopters will buzz around, maybe armored vehicles will be heard clanking not far from the borders.

The word will then pass around the remaining refugees still in the camps, and then pass backwards up the torrent of refugees still flowing towards the border that the Chinese won't let them in, is assembling in great strength at the border, and will shoot to kill against any attempting to force entry.

International outcry can be placated if the Chinese conduct some air drop of supplies on the North Korean side, or just let international aid to come through.

also, I am not convinced that in extremis, most North Korean refugees would rather go to china than go to South Korea.  South Koreans will be much less likely to turn a blind eye, or fire on, their fellow Koreans than the Chinese would.

(August 12, 2017 at 1:01 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(August 9, 2017 at 12:56 pm)Jehanne Wrote: North Korea has a modern air-defense system, don't they?  What makes anyone believe that the West/US can successfully launch a bombing strike?  The only successes that we have had have been against 3rd/4th World nations.  Even Trump was too afraid to send US warplanes into Syrian airspace for fear that they would be shot down.

The majority of their equipment, including the command-and-control system, is outdated Soviet gear and a similar doctrine that had severe troubles 26 years ago in Iraq, and even longer ago in the Bekaa Valley. It's true they have some modern gear, but it hasn't been combat-tested -- while American equipment and doctrine has. I'd be willing to bet a multi-unit strike package could probably get 'er done.

The Russians had an S-400 system installed there, which is a much more modern system. North Korea might have more integration in its system, but it is a system Americans have faced in one form or another since the 60s, and have learnt to crack.
[/quote]

Until they/we (the US, that is) does, we'll never know for sure. Unlike Iraq (most of whom were not regular soldiers), North Korea does have a completely modern army. China has, by the way, stated that they will defend North Korea, if it is attacked by the US:

http://electoral-vote.com/

No, even only by apparences, the equipment of the North Korean army would not have overawed the Egyptian and Syrian army of the 1973 war.

But if acting preemptively, such a army could still inflict a blood bath on Soeul.

That's pretty much the whole nut, isn't it?  10 million people no more than ten minutes away from eradication on a good day.

(August 12, 2017 at 10:30 am)Jehanne Wrote: Until they/we (the US, that is) does, we'll never know for sure.  Unlike Iraq (most of whom were not regular soldiers), North Korea does have a completely modern army.  China has, by the way, stated that they will defend North Korea, if it is attacked by the US:

http://electoral-vote.com/

[Emphasis added -- Thump]

This really is not the case. Their armored forces and air force both field weapons systems that are largely forty or more years out of date -- T-55s, and a couple of locally-developed variants on the T-62 chassis, MiG-21s and-23/27s reinforced by a smattering of MiG 29s (about 40, if I recall correctly).

DPRK forces are in no sense of the term "completely modern".

I think the media is missing a trick here. Condemnation of Trumply's language and not Un's is a mistake.

Keep drawing parallels between the 2 of them, identical coverage standards are vital right now. Kid gloves on Un is a big error. Emphasized coverage for Trumply's beligerence fails to emphasize his similarities to Un.

BIG MISTAKE.

(August 12, 2017 at 11:27 am)vorlon13 Wrote: I think the media is missing a trick here.  Condemnation of Trumply's language and not Un's is a mistake.

Keep drawing parallels between the 2 of them, identical coverage standards are vital right now. Kid gloves on Un is a big error.  Emphasized coverage for  Trumply's beligerence fails to emphasize his similarities to Un.

BIG MISTAKE.

Yes.   they fail to allow the president of the United States to exhibit the same behavior as to be expected from a third generation petty tyrant.  That is indeed a colossal mistake.

(August 12, 2017 at 11:21 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(August 12, 2017 at 10:30 am)Jehanne Wrote: Until they/we (the US, that is) does, we'll never know for sure.  Unlike Iraq (most of whom were not regular soldiers), North Korea does have a completely modern army.  China has, by the way, stated that they will defend North Korea, if it is attacked by the US:

http://electoral-vote.com/

[Emphasis added -- Thump]

This really is not the case. Their armored forces and air force both field weapons systems that are largely forty or more years out of date -- T-55s, and a couple of locally-developed variants on the T-62 chassis, MiG-21s and-23/27s reinforced by a smattering of MiG 29s (about 40, if I recall correctly).  

DPRK forces are in no sense of the term "completely modern".

If we attack them, then China will defend, which means that they will attack Us.

(August 12, 2017 at 12:03 pm)Jehanne Wrote:

(August 12, 2017 at 11:21 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: [Emphasis added -- Thump]

This really is not the case. Their armored forces and air force both field weapons systems that are largely forty or more years out of date -- T-55s, and a couple of locally-developed variants on the T-62 chassis, MiG-21s and-23/27s reinforced by a smattering of MiG 29s (about 40, if I recall correctly).  

DPRK forces are in no sense of the term "completely modern".

If we attack them, then China will defend, which means that they will attack Us.

China will not defend North Korea from just any attack. They will only defend North Korea to prevent it from collapsing and merging with South Korea or become occupied by US forces.

If the regime collapse is brought about by means other than land invasion by the US or South Korea, there is not necessarily any large amount of room for armed conflict between the US and china even if the Chinese does intervene militarily in Korea.

The first major step of their intervention is unlikely to involve start shooting at the US. Rather they will likely deploy their air and ground assets into northern parts of North Korea, declare it off limits to the US, and dare the US to shoot at them first.

It's unlikely events will simply go out of control and the conflict escalate by itself into a way between the US and china. Rather both sides will have to specifically want that conflict for the conflict to occur. Either side can attain its own core objective while offering the other side opportunity to climb down without embrassement.

Of course we do have trump. But.....