(August 13, 2017 at 10:08 am)Jehanne Wrote: They fought tooth & nail 60 years ago; what has changed since then?

Actually, they were saved by the Chinese in the autumn of 1950. Tooth-and-nail didn't cut it then, when their equipment was closer to modern standard than it is today. Had it not been for Chinese intervention, the Korean war would have been won probably by July of 51 at the latest.

-- and, they hadn't had 60 years of dictatorship [your number] starving their own families. Morale is hard to keep up when you know you're fighting for a regime that has your 60-year-old mom digging taters on the sly to supplement an otherwise thin diet.

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(August 13, 2017 at 6:03 pm)bennyboy Wrote:

(August 12, 2017 at 11:39 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: What makes you think DPRK regulars would be more loyal? Would you be willing to fight to the death for a regime that starves your cousins?  Would you do that much?

Soldiers are not robots. They have to have a reason to fight. Unit loyalty will give them coherence in a tactical situation, but once the shit hits the fan, even that is often traded for intact skin and home with the family.

First of all, the Kim family have been venerated as gods for three generations now, and they have had a pretty much unchanging world view during that time.  In Iraq's case, Saddam was propped up within memory of many of the soldiers, and their relationship with the US was in a lot more flux.  If anyone doesn't think the N. Korean soldiers have absolute faith and loyalty toward their leadership, I think you might underestimate the power of that level of brainwashing.

But I do have a question related to yours.  Could N. Korea ever have boots on the ground in Seoul?  It seems to me that Seoul is so much more advanced and generally grand than Pyeong Yang that just being there would immediately render everything they were taught about their country a lie.  I mean, just across the street from me there's a 70-story apartment with a neon-outlined helicopter landing pad on top-- well, technically there are 4 of them, but they are part of the same complex.  How does a N. Korean see something like that and not just break down right away?

I think the veneration angle is a bit overplayed, considering the veneration for elders in general inside Asian culture. I know that even as a fervent believer (of a different stripe, admittedly) I still had questions about my indoctrination which assumed greater importance when the shit hit the fan.

I have no doubt that many DPRK soldiers are hardy and devoted to duty -- don't get me wrong. But I also think that morale touches on a hell of a lot more than military indoctrination.

DPRK could quite possibly make such inroads into ROK that the DPRK soldiers start to question why they're fighting, and who they're fighting, and if their leaders have told them the truth. That too could perhaps sap morale. I don't know. They might see this magnificent wealth and get distracted, for all you or I know. It's happened before.

I know that with a large infantry force and given the hypothetical initiative, they could sure put put a dent across the DMZ. I'm more than certain that without outside help, they could not maintain any gains, much less capitalize on momentum. If I had to guess, I'd say ROK does a fighting retreat until airpower tells on a land that is (from the air force perspective) simply a series of chokepoints.

I'd just as soon not see any lives lost on what is essentially a troll-war between Un and Trump, each trying to inflict more butthurt with hot words than they take from the same.

Ah A doing some hyper nationalistic fapping off . How very nationalist .

(August 11, 2017 at 10:26 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: There is nothing we can afford to give up that china would think is adaquate compensation for their giving up North Korea.   That being said, if we launch surgical strikes against North Korea, or really bomb the stuffing out of North Korea, as in the case of retaliation against their strike against Guam, The Chinese won't shoot at us.

They don't mind if we take out North Korean nukes so long as Kim's government survives.

If North Korea invade South Korea in retaliation and it turns into a land war, where it is all or nothing for Kim, and losing mean South Korea/the IS topple Kim's regime, then they will get directly involved.

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Read a detailed account of the behind the scene diplomatic maneuvers between the US, United Nations and china in 1950 leading up to the Chinese involvement in the Korean War.  It is very instructive.  The Chinese don't mind their buffer state gets a bloody nose.   Particularly if the buffer state is engaged in actions they didn't approve.   But they do mind if the buffer state is in danger of collapse, or American forces approach Chinese border.

Chinese interest relative to the Korean Peninsula has not changed significantly.   The only difference is back then, their only option to get involved was to fight a ground war against the US in Korea.

Now they can fight a multi-faceted struggle against many dimensions of American interest at many different locations at once. They can directly attack American allies throughout west pacific by air and by sea, they can engage us by air and land in Korea.  They can attack our space assets, they can wage economic and resource warfare against us.  Ultimately they can retaliate against us with nuclear weapons that work.

There is probably one thing that China would accept, the Finland option, ie a united Korea with full sovreignty inside its own borders but effectively trusting its military defence to China (ie no US troops) and acting as a genuine neutral in foreign affairs.

Trouble is, it's probably too late to get the power centres in Pyongyang to bow out, and taking over a ruined North would probably destroy the South (in fact taking over the North as it is, even peacefully, would be a nightmare).

(August 11, 2017 at 9:35 pm)vorlon13 Wrote: So, they already realize the refugees would be ESPECIALLY annoying.

Good.

Maybe they might reconsider their courses of action that have got them into this cluster fuck.

What, not assassinating Drumpfuck on Jan 19th?

(August 14, 2017 at 2:37 am)Tazzycorn Wrote:

(August 11, 2017 at 10:26 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: There is nothing we can afford to give up that china would think is adaquate compensation for their giving up North Korea.   That being said, if we launch surgical strikes against North Korea, or really bomb the stuffing out of North Korea, as in the case of retaliation against their strike against Guam, The Chinese won't shoot at us.

They don't mind if we take out North Korean nukes so long as Kim's government survives.

If North Korea invade South Korea in retaliation and it turns into a land war, where it is all or nothing for Kim, and losing mean South Korea/the IS topple Kim's regime, then they will get directly involved.

---

Read a detailed account of the behind the scene diplomatic maneuvers between the US, United Nations and china in 1950 leading up to the Chinese involvement in the Korean War.  It is very instructive.  The Chinese don't mind their buffer state gets a bloody nose.   Particularly if the buffer state is engaged in actions they didn't approve.   But they do mind if the buffer state is in danger of collapse, or American forces approach Chinese border.


Chinese interest relative to the Korean Peninsula has not changed significantly.   The only difference is back then, their only option to get involved was to fight a ground war against the US in Korea.

Now they can fight a multi-faceted struggle against many dimensions of American interest at many different locations at once. They can directly attack American allies throughout west pacific by air and by sea, they can engage us by air and land in Korea.  They can attack our space assets, they can wage economic and resource warfare against us.  Ultimately they can retaliate against us with nuclear weapons that work.

There is probably one thing that China would accept, the Finland option, ie a united Korea with full sovreignty inside its own borders but effectively trusting its military defence to China (ie no US troops) and acting as a genuine neutral in foreign affairs.

Trouble is, it's probably too late to get the power centres in Pyongyang to bow out, and taking over a ruined North would probably destroy the South (in fact taking over the North as it is, even peacefully, would be a nightmare).

I think both South Korea's actual strength and self perception is really being underestimated here.

South Korea sees itself as a advanced regional power similar in caliber to Japan with realistic hope of surpassing these and becoming by 2050 the number 2 power in east Asia and a global power in its own right.  Never will South Korea accept being de jure a protectorate of china with foreign policy dictated by Beijing.

Also, South Korea is the second most advanced economy in east Asia, catching up or surpassing Japan on multiple fronts, well ahead of china in many key high value added areas.   South Korea's economic prosperity depends on maintaining its technological edge over china for as long as possible.  If china gains a position over Korea such that china can appropriate south Korea's economic and technological know how, South Korean economy is doomed.    So being independent of china is a matter of economic life and death for South Korea.

It appears North Korea's recent spectacular missile performance advancement has been made possible by using soviet ballistic missile engine technology made available by Ukraine.

The missile engine in question powered soviet SS-18 ICBM.  If true, this is bad news.  SS-18 was a very powerful heavy ICBM with a 8 ton payload capacity sufficient to deliver 10 independent warheads or one very large, unminiaturized warhead in the size and weight ballpark of the primitive atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and nagasaki. Prior to this North Korea had been trying to refine and enlarge 1950s vintage SCUD class liquid fuel engines, which pre-dated soviet union's own 1st successful ICBM, and not having a whole lot of luck with it.   Their earlier engines also use fuel that can't be stored for long periods aboard the missile, necessitating long refueling period period to launch, and giving significant warning in the process.

This is a much more advanced engine, it uses storable liquid fuel, allowing the missile to be fully fueled in the factory, and then stored, and can be launched with just minutes of preparation, effectively giving no warning.

The credibility of North Korean ICBMs threat went from not very real, because their engines are unreliable, their warheads too big, and they can't launch without length preparation that will alert us, to yeah, they likely can drop one somewhere on the continental US anytime they want, the only question is whether they will annihilate downtown or miss and wipe out a suburb.

So, they've officially developed a missile that can actually potentially carry a 20 megaton warhead to the continental US. And the two nations in question are headed by a spoiled brat who once executed an enemy with a mortar round and a corrupt corporate executive/human orangutan who doesn't seem to grasp the gravity of nuclear war and prides himself on having no moral restraint (or shame of any kind, really).

Anyone got odds about how likely it is a good portion of us will be either dead or dying of radiation poisoning by Christmas?

They still won't shoot off their insurance policy unless their crisis is existential.

(August 15, 2017 at 3:41 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: They still won't shoot off their insurance policy unless their crisis is existential.

No, not even then, although they will threaten and perhaps fire one into the ocean to show they mean business.

They will only fire one at a real target as a last Fuck You All when the fall of the regime is imminent and inevitable.

The real effect and the real consequential bad news resulting from the fact that North Korea now has a credible nuclear attack capability against the US is this would likely spur a major round of American investment in ballistic missile defense, which will in turn spur a major round of strategic missile enhancements and proliferation on the part of Russia and china in order to continue to maintain their current level of capability to attack the US.

So the real long term consequence of a few relatively primitive North Korean ICBMs able to randomly hit somewhere in the US and is plausibly susceptible to interception by American ballistic missile defense, is likely a rapidly escalating number of more sophisticated and accurate Chinese and Russian ICBMS, able to evade or overwhelm American national missile defense, also aimed at the US.

(August 14, 2017 at 5:06 am)Tazzycorn Wrote:

(August 11, 2017 at 9:35 pm)vorlon13 Wrote: So, they already realize the refugees would be ESPECIALLY annoying.

Good.

Maybe they might reconsider their courses of action that have got them into this cluster fuck.

What, not assassinating Drumpfuck on Jan 19th?

That asshole is not worth a civil war. Leave the threats of revolution to the far right bigots. 45 dog whistled to those assholes during his run about Hillary and a 2nd Amendment solution. Lets not lower ourselves to their standards.

45 is digging himself in deeper fine all by himself. Poking the asshole is fine, but lets do so without implying violence ourselves.