The Problem with Christians

[AAA]

If those events were counted as a single contiguous stream rather than innumerable tandem streams, maybe.  But that's not what happens......so....who sold you that particular line?  Why did you put your faith in something so transparently false as their summary?  From here, your faith doesn't seem as discerning as you might like to claim.  Or was the point of getting your probabilities wrong simply to toss out the word faith, in the lamest implied TQ imaginable?

Care to do some math........?

Sure I did the math a few pages ago. Here is how I got it.

AAA Wrote:[url=http://atheistforums.org/post-1237112.html#pid1237112][/url]It isn't too hard to calculate the odds of abiogenesis. This is the probability of a protein with a specific sequence forming by chance alone. Most proteins are hundreds or thousands of amino acids long. Lets use 100 amino acids as an example. There are 20 different amino acids that could possibly be at any position in the sequence. So each position has a one in 20 chance of being the correct amino acid. (1/20)^100 shows how likely it is that all 100 amino acids will be correct. This results in a 100 amino acid protein with a specific sequence forming one out of every 7.89 x 10^131 chances. That is unbelievably improbable. We can go even further than that. 

Each chance to get the correct sequence takes 100 amino acids. Multiply that by the number of chances to get the total number of amino acids required to arrive at it and you get 7.89 x 10^133 total amino acids necessary. We can now figure out the mass of amino acids needed. Take the number of amino acid molecules and divide it by avogadro's number to get the number of moles of amino acids. This results in (7.89 x 10^133 molecules / 6.022 x 10 ^23 molecules /mole) = 1.31 x 10^110 moles. The average molar mass of an amino acid is 129.45 g/mole. You multiply this by the number of moles and you get 1.70 x 10^112 total grams of amino acids. 

To give you some reference as to how large this mass is, the mass of the earth is 5.97 x 10^27 grams. The mass of amino acids is ((1.70 x 10^112/5.97 x 10^27) =2.84 x 10^84 times more massive than earth. There aren't even that many atoms in the universe. 

In other words, the mass of amino acids you would need to get a small functional protein by chance are approximately the number of atoms in the universe times the mass of the earth. There probably haven't even been this many amino acids throughout all of time in the whole existence of the universe.

[The Grand Nudger]

You might want to explore the possibility that you don't have one, rather than everyone else missing it, AAA. What are those odds, do you think?

(no one proposes that it's chance, or..again, that it was a contiguous rather than tandem stream - or that it all happened at one time, or that each "attempt" was one and done, and couldn;t be used in a further attempt. I don't need to look at your math, because even if it were right, your conclusion would still be wrong.)

[IATIA]

Nope!  Unless every single possible combination is played in a single game.  In PowerBall the odds are 1 in 292,201,338.  If 292,201,337 combinations are played, the the odds are still not 100%.

Thanks, I am aware now. I think you missed the point though.

No, I did not miss the point. It is obvious that you do not have a grasp of probabilities which negates all your numbers, which were made up in the first place anyway.

[AAA]

Interestingly, I was walking on the beach at Newquay the other day, during a surprise lull in the storm, and I was struck by the incredible order of it all. Sure, there were irregularities, but in general the particles of sand were always near the water, while larger pebbles, rocks and boulders were arranged in increasing order of size depending on their distance from the shoreline. What are the odds of this happening all at once by blind chance?

The odds of that occuring by blind chance are pretty low. 

That's the whole point.  It wasn't chance was it?

[AAA]

You might want to explore the possibility that you don't have one, rather than everyone else missing it, AAA.  What are those odds, do you think?

(no one proposes that it's chance, or..again, that it was a contiguous rather than tandem stream - or that it all happened at one time.  I don't need to look at your math, because even if it were right, your conclusion would still be wrong.)

Thanks, I am aware now. I think you missed the point though.

No, I did not miss the point.  It is obvious that you do not have a grasp of probabilities which negates all your numbers, which were made up in the first place anyway.

Ok, well if I don't grasp probabilities, then show me where I went wrong in the calculation??????? They aren't made up. You can actually get a high precision calculator open online and follow along with what I did.

[Cyberman]

Interestingly, I was walking on the beach at Newquay the other day, during a surprise lull in the storm, and I was struck by the incredible order of it all. Sure, there were irregularities, but in general the particles of sand were always near the water, while larger pebbles, rocks and boulders were arranged in increasing order of size depending on their distance from the shoreline. What are the odds of this happening all at once by blind chance?

The odds of that occuring by blind chance are pretty low. 

That's the whole point.  It wasn't chance was it?

Now you're getting it.

[The Grand Nudger]

Ok, well if I don't grasp probabilities, then show me where I went wrong in the calculation??????? They aren't made up. You can actually get a high precision calculator open online and follow along with what I did.

Focusing on your calculation is deflective.  Math (and probability) is only informative when it accurately models the relationships you wish to explore.  You failed to accurately model reality, or the proposition which you seek to discredit, in your model...and thusly, all the math in the world, good or bad...is useless to either end.

If 1+1=2, then there is no god. 1+1=2, so there is no god. Dispute my math.........

[Angrboda]

Ok, well if I don't grasp probabilities, then show me where I went wrong in the calculation??????? They aren't made up. You can actually get a high precision calculator open online and follow along with what I did.

Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations

[robvalue]

There is no "so unlikely it must have been magic" branch of mathematics.

You have no alternative hypothesis, it's just an argument from ignorance. Unlikely does not equal made-up explanation inserted instead.

And I ask again, what would non-designed life be like, for comparison?

[AAA]

Ok, well if I don't grasp probabilities, then show me where I went wrong in the calculation??????? They aren't made up. You can actually get a high precision calculator open online and follow along with what I did.

Focusing on your calculation is deflective.  Math (and probability) is only informative when it accurately models the relationships you wish to explore.  You failed to accurately model reality, or the proposition which you seek to discredit, in your model...and thusly, all the math in the world, good or bad...is useless to either end.

If 1+1=2, then there is no god.  1+1=2, so there is no god.   Dispute my math.........

So you think that something that has a one  in 7.89 x 10^131 chance of happening is probable?