The argument of "chance"

[Alex K]

rob,

and I'm arguing that you don't even get some kind of creator out of it for the usual reasons having to do with regress.

[robvalue]

Ah! Of course, yes I forgot that old chestnut.

[Tonus]

the argument where Christians pull a number out of their ass saying "what are the chances of a universe like this existing without a god" or something similar.

The idea is really just to come up with numbers (using the "thin air" methodology) that imply that a particular occurrence is so unlikely as to be impossible. Once you make the case that it's impossible for, say, the Earth to have developed into a life-sustaining planet without a guiding hand, you have established the need for a guiding hand, and therefore begun building the case for god.

As always, god could make such exercises moot by making its presence known. Her unwillingness to show her face has led to some amazing mental and philosophical gymnastics, which can occasionally provide a bit of amusement, if you can stop rolling your eyes long enough.

[Dystopia]

The argument of chance operates as a modified argument of the cosmological wishful thinking - The world is so perfect that the chance of god existing is high. What is the chance we would be here today, alive and breathing, with accessible living conditions and happy lives if it wasn't for god? Why does the earth exist and why is the universe so complex and fascinating? ---> This constitutes an argument from incredulity and is not valid, and it misses the point when you are arguing for a specific religion because even if we needed a god that argument doesn't prove if this god is the one.

A lot of what are the chances stems from ignorance regarding science and how the universe operates. Additionally this argument can be used in different circumstances:

- What are the chances someone magically recovered from a deadly illness? It has to be a miracle?
- What are the chances our lives are meaningless? It can't be!
- My prayer worked, what are the chances of god no existing? He exists!

[Pizza]

What are the chances that anyone should win the lottery? God.

[Esquilax]

The big problem with the Argument from Big Numbers is that it doesn't even say anything: assuming we take the entirely manufactured numbers as real, the chance of this particular universe existing is exactly the same chance as any other variant universe existing, if it's represented at the same level of specificity as was used to come to the probability for this universe. There is no card in a deck of cards that has a higher chance of randomly being drawn than any other.

It literally just is "aren't you scared of this large number?!" and nothing else.

[Neo-Scholastic]

There is no reason to think the universe could have been anything other than what it is.

Careful, Rob. Starting with that premise leads to God.

Basically, there is nothing in mathematics that represents "God".

True. Because God is why mathematics exists in the first place.

[Esquilax]

True. Because God is why mathematics exists in the first place.

Oh look, Old King Assertion is here.

[robvalue]

No, I created God and mathematics, then killed God.

Because I said so.

(See above)

[Norman Humann]

Oh look, Old King Assertion is here.

And the procession of supporting evidence is nowhere to be seen...