The market and where the economy is going.

[Jackalope]

I read this morning that only once in the last 50 years has the treasury bond yield curve inversion mentioned in the OP not precipitated a recession.  

Yes, and IIRC the inversion preceded the last three.

The spread between the 10 and 2 year treasuries improved today due to the 2 year yield taking a hard dive, but it's still perilously close.

[Jackalope]

A few reliable leading indicators of upcoming recession -

Impending 10/2 Treasury yield inversion



Housing supply



One to watch: Initial jobless claims



Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227537...ing?page=2

[brewer]

I've survived recessions before, my guess is that I'll survive this one.

[Jackalope]

I've survived recessions before, my guess is that I'll survive this one.

Probably.

My main concern is that my nest egg won't.

I want to retire in 8 years at most.

[ignoramus]

If you watch the Adams/North youtube vids, things will be pretty bad.
The Australian and NZ debt bubbles are the highest on record.
John Adams who consults our MP's regularly, was told by an MP this week that when "it" happens, the govt will claim plausible deniability.
This basically confirms to me that no govt really cares much beyond their next election.

In the minutes this week from our big four overseers (Reserve Bank, ASIC, APRA and Treasury), they feel it's best to relax money lending as borrowing has slowed! The exact same spending which has caused this bubble in the first place.
Record low interest rates, mums and dads borrowing 5 -6 time debt to income ratios...
Our economy will implode sometime in 2019/2020 guaranteed.
There's 1.36 trillion dollars in interest only loans which will revert to interest and principle starting next year.
The majority of these people won't be able to refinance and they won't be able to service the new monthly amount.
With home prices falling big time, most will be in negative equity, which means why even bother trying to pay the property off.
This is the ONLY reason I'm selling my house early next year, before a complete collapse.
My biggest fear of course will be the bank bail ins when it happens. No-one's money is safe in the banks anymore. It's in legislation for every country in the world. They will take what they need. Cypress was the model future bail ins will be based on.

[Brian37]

Even before Trump the stock market existed for a century.

I look at the global economy just like any other ecosystem. One has to expect an ebb and flow and up and downs. Wild swings that cause depressions and recessions beyond normal trading are the result of greed.

Humans are no different than any other species. When we have what we need, we tolerate ups and downs better. When we don't we turn on each other, even our own nations.

What caused the Russian Revolution, the French Revolution, The Iranian Revolution, American Revolution was the same thing, enough of each population feeling squeezed.

The Stock market isn't the investment entity it started out as. Now, it is simply a legalized global casino, to which most of the whales who own stock are already millionaires and billionaires.

[Jackalope]

I haven't been paying much attention to AUS but that's pretty scary, iggy and portends something akin to 2008.

Some of the mortgage products being pushed seem intended to produce foreclosures, tbh. Interest-only loans are a particularly egregious example.

I personally have never held anything other than a traditional fixed mortgage and have never regretted it.

I too am putting my house on the market in Q2 2019, I purchased it as a short-term investment and it's paid off well, but my read is that the market in my area is topped out and it's time to take profits. We're going to see where things go in 2019/2020.

[ignoramus]

Even scarier CD is that due to our big four being over 60% exposed to home mortgages (highest in the world) and being back by the usual US suspects, "our" collapse could be a trigger which starts the SX runs. Once that happens, it's on for young and old. And already too late to take action.

All this will happen here and NZ on the assumption that international triggers don't kick it off earlier. Then it's a double whammy for us.
They're predicting things will be worse for us than the depression of the late 20's.
Remember that Aus didn't have our GFC so our debt bubble has been festering for 30 years...

[ignoramus]

Oh Dear. Is any of this true! It can't be!

[Angrboda]

A lot of mixed indicators. Apparently the consensus of economists is that a recession is likely within the next two years. One of those, "We'll just have to wait until it happens," sort of deals. These indicators could point to trouble ahead, all indicators could point to trouble ahead, and it wouldn't mean we necessarily are going to see trouble ahead. Given the law of averages, it's likely we will see a downturn sooner or later, the major question is how soon or how late. If the downturn doesn't occur until after 2020, it might have massively different effects than if it comes before if that allows Trump to win another term in office. Will it come before then? Nobody can say.