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Russia and Ukraine
RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 7:01 am)Deesse23 Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 5:45 am)Jehanne Wrote: The war has gone back & forth.  Early on Russia had its share of successes, and then, was pushed back, in part due to the antitank weapons supplied from the West.  After that, the Russians regrouped and the war entered a stalemate.  Over the last several weeks the Ukrainians have made huge gains, largely due to American intelligence and more Western weapons.
When you invade another country, with an overwhelming number of hardware, including T90s ´n stuff, then get pushed back, several times (Kiev, Izium), ending in a rout, then things are not looking good for you. Then things didnt go according to plan
Period

Antitank weapons? How comes that a substantial amount of Ukraines newly aquired MBTs are former russian tanks? Because "anti tank weapons"? Hardly.

(September 27, 2022 at 5:45 am)Jehanne Wrote: Ultimately, I see Russia winning, in which the West's efforts will have just been to prolong a senseless and unnecessary war.  It is most certainly not a hope, but, a prediction, in part, based upon their historical behavior and culture.
If you are referring to WWII tactics and usage of manpower, then you are horribly wrong.
You are basing your opinion on false historic comparisons and pop culture, not on facts.

(September 27, 2022 at 5:45 am)Jehanne Wrote:  It is absolutely pointless to argue about such things.  None of us has a crystal ball, and so, time will tell.  I hope that all of you will have been right, and in the end, I will have been proven wrong.
There is public information around, pretty hard data, that is (and i am talking neither about Ukrainina nor Russian Ministry of Defense) painting a picture not favourable for Russia. It has a severe problem with quantity and quality of manpower, and you cant conquer a foreign country with tanks. You need crew for those tanks ( n stuff). Looking at the curent standing of calling in the reservists, this doesn tlook good either.

I am a layperson, and, speaking as a layperson, I think that Ukraine has lasted as long as it has due to Western weapons, and, especially, Western intelligence.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 7:01 am)Deesse23 Wrote: When you invade another country, with an overwhelming number of hardware, including T90s ´n stuff, then get pushed back, several times (Kiev, Izium), ending in a rout, then things are not looking good for you. Then things didnt go according to plan
Period

From what I remember, the number used initially was not that overwhelming. Many commented that an army would require a force 3 times greater than the defending forces, but the Russians brought only around 1 times, which they would know was insufficient.... unless there was some misdirection involved.

(September 27, 2022 at 5:45 am)Jehanne Wrote: Ultimately, I see Russia winning, in which the West's efforts will have just been to prolong a senseless and unnecessary war.  It is most certainly not a hope, but, a prediction, in part, based upon their historical behavior and culture.

IF (big if) Russia does have the manpower to drag on the war, then they may hold on to some of the captured provinces if they are still in control of them when the Ukrainian army runs out of people or the West stops supplying weapons (whichever happens first).
If there is no manpower or no weapons, then they will have to keep on retreating. What this will mean for Russia in a geopolitical sense, I don't know.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 8:40 am)Jehanne Wrote: Yes, absolutely.  Putin's invasion of Ukraine was and is a despicable abomination, wholly illegal and wholly unnecessary.

My point is entirely a pragmatic one.  If defeat against a nuclear power is inevitable, why prolong human suffering??

Ask a ukranian....but none of this seems entirely on the up and up.  No one is prolonging human suffering, or an unnecessary war, but putin. He could pack it up and go home anytime he likes.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 9:35 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 8:40 am)Jehanne Wrote: Yes, absolutely.  Putin's invasion of Ukraine was and is a despicable abomination, wholly illegal and wholly unnecessary.

My point is entirely a pragmatic one.  If defeat against a nuclear power is inevitable, why prolong human suffering??

Ask a ukranian....but none of this seems entirely on the up and up.  No one is prolonging human suffering, or an unnecessary war, but putin.

The dead do not speak; the living must do that for them. Thousands have been murdered after being tortured. One could claim, with some justification, that the Russian army is a bunch of losers and that the Ukrainians are the par excellence fighters. Fact is that the war has surpassed six months and thousands on both sides continue to die.

I see the sunk cost fallacy here where others see an imminent Ukrainian victory.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
People subject to such treatment may not actually believe that victory, even in the hypothetical, is a requirement for action. The sunk cost fallacy probably is operative...but not in a ukranian victory.......more in some doomed plot to throw 300k gas station attendants at professional soldiers.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
Reply
RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 8:43 am)Jehanne Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 7:01 am)Deesse23 Wrote: When you invade another country, with an overwhelming number of hardware, including T90s ´n stuff, then get pushed back, several times (Kiev, Izium), ending in a rout, then things are not looking good for you. Then things didnt go according to plan
Period

Antitank weapons? How comes that a substantial amount of Ukraines newly aquired MBTs are former russian tanks? Because "anti tank weapons"? Hardly.

If you are referring to WWII tactics and usage of manpower, then you are horribly wrong.
You are basing your opinion on false historic comparisons and pop culture, not on facts.

There is public information around, pretty hard data, that is (and i am talking neither about Ukrainina nor Russian Ministry of Defense) painting a picture not favourable for Russia. It has a severe problem with quantity and quality of manpower, and you cant conquer a foreign country with tanks. You need crew for those tanks ( n stuff). Looking at the curent standing of calling in the reservists, this doesn tlook good either.

I am a layperson, and, speaking as a layperson, I think that Ukraine has lasted as long as it has due to Western weapons, and, especially, Western intelligence.
Yes and as such, you are ill/mal informed. Please get yourself informed and form an informed opinion.

Example: 
There is visual confirmation of Russia having lost about 1200 Tanks. 400 of those were captured by Ukrainian forces. Thats 33%. Do you think that speaks more of the effect of western anti tank weapons or rather something else?
300 additional Tanks have been supplied by the west. Do you think external (=western) tank supply of Ukraine is Russias biggest "tank-problem", or something else?
By the way, the numbers for IFV and other stuff are in the same ballpark.
Cetero censeo religionem delendam esse
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 8:45 am)pocaracas Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 7:01 am)Deesse23 Wrote: When you invade another country, with an overwhelming number of hardware, including T90s ´n stuff, then get pushed back, several times (Kiev, Izium), ending in a rout, then things are not looking good for you. Then things didnt go according to plan
Period
From what I remember, the number used initially was not that overwhelming. Many commented that an army would require a force 3 times greater than the defending forces,
That was thought to be common knowledge already 80y ago, before Fall Gelb, Blau and Barbarossa.
Granted you are correct, what does that tell you about the planning capabilities of russian general staff?
Cetero censeo religionem delendam esse
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 8:45 am)pocaracas Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 7:01 am)Deesse23 Wrote: When you invade another country, with an overwhelming number of hardware, including T90s ´n stuff, then get pushed back, several times (Kiev, Izium), ending in a rout, then things are not looking good for you. Then things didnt go according to plan
Period

From what I remember, the number used initially was not that overwhelming. Many commented that an army would require a force 3 times greater than the defending forces, but the Russians brought only around 1 times, which they would know was insufficient.... unless there was some misdirection involved.

(September 27, 2022 at 5:45 am)Jehanne Wrote: Ultimately, I see Russia winning, in which the West's efforts will have just been to prolong a senseless and unnecessary war.  It is most certainly not a hope, but, a prediction, in part, based upon their historical behavior and culture.

IF (big if) Russia does have the manpower to drag on the war, then they may hold on to some of the captured provinces if they are still in control of them when the Ukrainian army runs out of people or the West stops supplying weapons (whichever happens first).
If there is no manpower or no weapons, then they will have to keep on retreating. What this will mean for Russia in a geopolitical sense, I don't know.

Russia, if they knew what they were doing, probably had sufficient troops to win the war early (in a similar manner to the second Gulf War), given their superior manpower and, allegedly, weaponry. What analists were saying was that they would need in excess of 800,000 troops permanently garrisoned in Ukraine to win the occupation, at minimal resistance levels.

Now this was predicated on the Russian army being trained to NATO standards, independent flexible command structures, a proper air strategy and their on paper materiel strength being reflected in battle. None of these were true as it turned out.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 11:32 am)Deesse23 Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 8:43 am)Jehanne Wrote: I am a layperson, and, speaking as a layperson, I think that Ukraine has lasted as long as it has due to Western weapons, and, especially, Western intelligence.
Yes and as such, you are ill/mal informed. Please get yourself informed and form an informed opinion.

Example: 
There is visual confirmation of Russia having lost about 1200 Tanks. 400 of those were captured by Ukrainian forces. Thats 33%. Do you think that speaks more of the effect of western anti tank weapons or rather something else?
300 additional Tanks have been supplied by the west. Do you think external (=western) tank supply of Ukraine is Russias biggest "tank-problem", or something else?
By the way, the numbers for IFV and other stuff are in the same ballpark.

Why has the war lasted 7 months then? Ukraine should have defeated the Russians in 7 days. If what you're saying is true, this thing should be over in the next week or so.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
(September 27, 2022 at 12:38 pm)Jehanne Wrote:
(September 27, 2022 at 11:32 am)Deesse23 Wrote: Yes and as such, you are ill/mal informed. Please get yourself informed and form an informed opinion.

Example: 
There is visual confirmation of Russia having lost about 1200 Tanks. 400 of those were captured by Ukrainian forces. Thats 33%. Do you think that speaks more of the effect of western anti tank weapons or rather something else?
300 additional Tanks have been supplied by the west. Do you think external (=western) tank supply of Ukraine is Russias biggest "tank-problem", or something else?
By the way, the numbers for IFV and other stuff are in the same ballpark.

Why has the war lasted 7 months then?  Ukraine should have defeated the Russians in 7 days.  If what you're saying is true, this thing should be over in the next week or so.

Why cant you answer questions but have to post counter-questions?
Do you still think western anti tank weapons were a major factor?
Do you deny visually confirmed kills and captures, aka pictures taken of those occurrences?

You didnt ask where these numbers came from (source). You didnt even ask how these numbers were created, how reliable the method and people were. You dismissed the evidence because it didnt fit your narrative. "These numbers arent true, they cannot be true, because......"
Think about that if you wish.

Why do you think Russia losing 1200 tanks in 6 months means it has lost a war? A war is lost once a party acknowledges it has lost the war. Rome didnt surrender to Hannibal after Trasimene, Trebia and Cannae! Germany didnt surrender until all its major cities´ centers were reduced to rubble and russian soldiers knocking at the doors of the Führerbunker. Russia has some fife-digit number of tanks. It may decide to throw another 10.000 tanks into the meatgrinder for nothing, and still not concede to have lost the war. 1200 tanks does not mean you have lost a war, but it certainly means that you will, if things wont change.

You seem to have no idea about the most basic principles of war.
Cetero censeo religionem delendam esse
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