Russia and Ukraine

[Leonardo17]

Soledar is strategically important to Prigozhins bank account.  He'll have to round up some pows and stolen kids to work the salt mines, but that shouldn't be a problem.  Russia intends to build a bunch of labor camps and penal colonies in the occupied areas.

Yeah, and Russia has "conquered several cities".
Which ones if i may ask?

Bel is also pontificating about alleged profiteers on the western side, while Shoigu with an annual salary of 100k has a mansion for several millions, or was that his wife?

They overwhelm Ukrainian defenses with waves of convicts from Russian prisons. Than they send more of them to place mortars among those bodies. Than they send real soldiers to use these mortars. Then, with the help of their artillery, they send real Wagner troops to make a final push on Ukrainian defense lines (Which are probably repositioning one or two kilometers behind). It’s the technique that was used by Stalin in WWII. It’s very costly in terms of human life. I don’t know for how long they can keep using this technique in the 21st century.  

[Leonardo17]

For example, it looks as though these super-duper Abrams tanks which are going to fly in to rescue our man Zelensky are difficult to use because they require fuel that's different from other machines. This increases logistical and maintenance difficulties. And the reason they are built this way is because Rumsfeld used the Abrams program to enrich the Chrysler Corporation, which was struggling at the time. 

You're an idiot. The AGT1500 is a multifuel engine. You should perhaps take up the habit of fact-checking claims you come across. The engine wasn't built by Chrysler, either; it was built by Honeywell, as anyone who did even minimal reading to verify what he was repeating would have learned.

You're a low information blatherer who thinks he sounds intelligent when he deploys pseudorevolutionary rhetoric. Shit, I could have told you about the Turkish missile deal. And the F-35s weren't scrubbed because we were trying to control Turkey's purchasing. It was scrubbed because we did not want anyone to be able to examine the F-35 with a good modern radar under controlled conditions in order to defeat its stealth aspects. But that doesn't fit your tres-cool anti-American codswallop.

'Tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool ... I think you can finish this thought.

Thar goes for finding your military facts from Youtube videos. too. There's a lot of junk there and one must be careful.

As far as I know: the S-300’s are not compatible with the NATO infrastructure. And because it is also a modern weapon’s system, it is / was likely to allow Russians to infiltrate the NATO electronic infrastructure. So even the current populist government was not able to put them into service and is just making them root in some military warehouses. The US had even offered to buy these missiles from us. His Excellency refused. As a result we (who were the producers of some key components of the F-35’s) were kicked out of the F-35 program. After many warnings. And the only goal of that was (as belaqua pointed out) was to enable to allow his excellency to tell his electorate that he had overcome the tyranny of white Turks (I don’t really know what this means) and had refused to bow down to the threats of the West (In an era in which Donald Trump sent him a letter in which he told him to “not be a tought Guy” – these are the exact words). So this is the full story as far as I know  

[Belacqua]

1) The F-16’s won’t arrive for a few months. They need to train the pilots.

Have any F-16s been promised at this point? All I've heard is speculation. 

This is from two days ago:

“There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine. This was made clear very early, including from the U.S. President,” Germany Chancelor Olaf Scholz said in remarks to his country’s parliament after the tanks decision. “This position has not changed at all and will not change.”

They said this about the tanks, though, earlier, so it may change. 

From what I read there are currently no runways in Ukraine capable of handling an F-16, so that will take time also. (Since Russia has complete air superiority at present they can bomb the runways.) If they fly out of nearby countries that would be a major escalation.

2) The German Tanks will arrive within weeks (the training time is shorter and it uses diesel, not jet fuel + I think the leopard is still the better tank in this war. The Total number of modern Tanks that will be sent to Ukraine in the coming months is 327. That’s the number Zelensky needed. French Tanks are coming too. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-recei...00258.html)

We'll see. It certainly looks as if Germany has been reluctant, but is being pushed by the US. Lots of things happen between the promise and the execution.

We also have to keep in mind that while the tanks are probably better than the hundreds and hundreds Ukraine had a year ago, they are hardly invincible. We've heard several times about super-duper weapons that will definitely be game-changers, but the game hasn't changed yet. 

Partisan media always exaggerates. 

 3) Now they need air defences, Migs and F-16’s. I don’t know about A-10’s. Why not just send them and see if it works (it’s an old type of airplane anyway) . I came to know that F-35 is the beast US fighter jet second only to F-22 Raptors which are very expensive but are described as the Ferrari’s of fighter jets. But Just like Eurofighter’s and Mirage airplanes these have very complex technologies and require a lot of training. The war will probably be over before Ukrainian pilots are trained on these systems. Besides Russia has about 20 next generation airplanes which cannot leave Russian airspace because they don’t want them to be shut down. So F-35’s would only be necessary if Ukraine wanted to invade Russia at some point (to bypass their air-defense system [S-300’s]) but this is not going to happen. So F-16’s should do so there can be more men (Both Russian and Ukrainian) who will be able to be with their families next year.
 
4) First paragraph. You know Greece is a rival country for Turkey since many years (I mean in geopolitical terms and influence in the Aegean Sea). Greece has about 20 F-35’s, 20 Mirage airplanes + a fleet of modernized F-16’s. Because he took the S-300’s from Putin, The One with Neo-Ottoman Ambitions was even denied equipment to modernize our fleet of F-16 airplanes. We are a country of 80 million inhabitants. The population of Greece is about 10 million. So (thank God) nothing is going to happens in the near future with Greece. But if something was to happen it wouldn’t look so nice for us if you know what I mean .
 

The F-35s are purchased by America's vassal states. It's a cash transfer. Notice that Ukraine isn't begging for those -- they need things that work. 

It's always the same -- Russia is out of ammunition, it's out of soldiers, it gained ground but it was a Pyrrhic victory, etc. etc. But Ukraine is still begging for weapons. Zelensky says that if the tanks don't arrive by August it will be too late -- which is a statement incompatible with the propaganda that Ukraine is winning. 

It will be interesting to watch. The Democrats demonize Russia and use it to justify the military budget. If the next President is Republican, however, he might want to wrap up the Ukraine thing to concentrate on China. Republicans tend to prefer to make China their enemy (though it's bipartisan, really), and are busy working up a totally unnecessary and stupid war with them. One thing we can be sure of -- when any new war starts the obedient warmongers will be happy to defend it. 

[Leonardo17]

I feel like Putin could've avoided all this current mess in the first place, were it not for his big ego. He, and the Russian government, should've taken more time  (before invading) to consider whether this whole invasion idea was a really good idea because clearly, things aren't going well for them, and they know that the Western powers weren't going to sit by and just watch. I know, hindsight is 20/20, but this is the situation Russia is in now. And both Russia and Ukraine are suffering because of it.

As for this whole idea about how Putin is sort of like the good guy in this story, and who just happens to be horribly misunderstood (which is what I keep reading on Quora), I don't buy it one bit.

ETA: It also doesn't matter whether the Russian government was provoked into doing it, because at some point, each government (and individual persons) should be held accountable for their own actions, and we shouldn't keep blaming others for what we ourselves do.

If Putain had done any sort of serious long term analysis of the Ukraine invasion, he would have realised that even if (somehow) his half baked invasion plan worked, the occupation was doomed to massive failure within a few years.  Even by conservative efforts (assuming the lower end on number of occupation troops required, and assuming minimal post war resistance), it would have required a full time force of 800,000 troops to keep Ukraine occupied.

This is something Russia wouldn't have been able to manage for a matter of weeks, never mind the decades it needed to strengthen its grip on Ukraine.

But then again Putain is a narcissistic idiot who thought the people of Ukraine would immediately fall on their faces and start kissing his arse.

I think what he expected was a Belarus-type of solution for Ukraine. In fact if the Maidan revolution had not happened in 2015, none of these would have happened. This Putinian ideology would have worked. Many of us would have not known the exact location of Ukraine and Russia would still be a China-like force in the world. But things turned in a much unexpected manner. Last February, I personally expected a Syria like resistance and a long term war of resistance like the Soviet Campaign in Afghanistan (perhaps even less because the terrain in Ukraine is not so easily defensible as Afghanistan).
 
But yes, as the head of state of a former superpower, he seems to have made great miscalculations. What a mess indeed

[Leonardo17]

1) The F-16’s won’t arrive for a few months. They need to train the pilots.

Have any F-16s been promised at this point? All I've heard is speculation. 

This is from two days ago:

“There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine. This was made clear very early, including from the U.S. President,” Germany Chancelor Olaf Scholz said in remarks to his country’s parliament after the tanks decision. “This position has not changed at all and will not change.”

They said this about the tanks, though, earlier, so it may change. 

From what I read there are currently no runways in Ukraine capable of handling an F-16, so that will take time also.  (Since Russia has complete air superiority at present they can bomb the runways.) If they fly out of nearby countries that would be a major escalation.

2) The German Tanks will arrive within weeks (the training time is shorter and it uses diesel, not jet fuel + I think the leopard is still the better tank in this war. The Total number of modern Tanks that will be sent to Ukraine in the coming months is 327. That’s the number Zelensky needed. French Tanks are coming too. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-recei...00258.html)

We'll see. It certainly looks as if Germany has been reluctant, but is being pushed by the US. Lots of things happen between the promise and the execution.

We also have to keep in mind that while the tanks are probably better than the hundreds and hundreds Ukraine had a year ago, they are hardly invincible. We've heard several times about super-duper weapons that will definitely be game-changers, but the game hasn't changed yet. 

Partisan media always exaggerates. 

 3) Now they need air defences, Migs and F-16’s. I don’t know about A-10’s. Why not just send them and see if it works (it’s an old type of airplane anyway) . I came to know that F-35 is the beast US fighter jet second only to F-22 Raptors which are very expensive but are described as the Ferrari’s of fighter jets. But Just like Eurofighter’s and Mirage airplanes these have very complex technologies and require a lot of training. The war will probably be over before Ukrainian pilots are trained on these systems. Besides Russia has about 20 next generation airplanes which cannot leave Russian airspace because they don’t want them to be shut down. So F-35’s would only be necessary if Ukraine wanted to invade Russia at some point (to bypass their air-defense system [S-300’s]) but this is not going to happen. So F-16’s should do so there can be more men (Both Russian and Ukrainian) who will be able to be with their families next year.
 
4) First paragraph. You know Greece is a rival country for Turkey since many years (I mean in geopolitical terms and influence in the Aegean Sea). Greece has about 20 F-35’s, 20 Mirage airplanes + a fleet of modernized F-16’s. Because he took the S-300’s from Putin, The One with Neo-Ottoman Ambitions was even denied equipment to modernize our fleet of F-16 airplanes. We are a country of 80 million inhabitants. The population of Greece is about 10 million. So (thank God) nothing is going to happens in the near future with Greece. But if something was to happen it wouldn’t look so nice for us if you know what I mean .
 

The F-35s are purchased by America's vassal states. It's a cash transfer. Notice that Ukraine isn't begging for those -- they need things that work. 

It's always the same -- Russia is out of ammunition, it's out of soldiers, it gained ground but it was a Pyrrhic victory, etc. etc. But Ukraine is still begging for weapons. Zelensky says that if the tanks don't arrive by August it will be too late -- which is a statement incompatible with the propaganda that Ukraine is winning. 

It will be interesting to watch. The Democrats demonize Russia and use it to justify the military budget. If the next President is Republican, however, he might want to wrap up the Ukraine thing to concentrate on China. Republicans tend to prefer to make China their enemy (though it's bipartisan, really), and are busy working up a totally unnecessary and stupid war with them. One thing we can be sure of -- when any new war starts the obedient warmongers will be happy to defend it. 

1) https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28...e-00080045
 
Mig’s have already been given as far as I know. And Ukraine has an operating air-force. (I don’t think they would be able to stop Russians with some basic weapons)
 
2) German Tanks will arrive later (these are the newest tanks (like US tanks) they won’t send old tanks from warehouses. Poland has already started to train Ukrainian crews (no will Germany in the coming days). There are many European countries who have Leopard tanks. They were unable to send them without German approval. Now Sholz said “he was not opposed” to start training crews on these tanks. French tanks (like challengers) have also been approved. And the total number is around 321.
https://www.reuters.com/world/total-321-...tion%20BFM.
 
3) We could have a problem of terminology here. We are allies with the US. We are smaller than the US. That makes the US “the biggest guy on the block” as Obama described it. That’s how I see it. And this is very important. Smaller countries need a “nuclear umbrella” of some sort. So there were some complex systems of alliances that emerged in the world in the after WWII period. In the European security force project for instance, France is going to be the Nuclear umbrella of this unified military alliance (since the departure of the UK from the EU). So this nuclear deterrence is important. Now there are no more “blocks” as in the cold war period. But we still need those alliances as it is also seen in the case of Taiwan for instance. Without those alliances, anyone can do anything. Think of Libya for instance. So as civilized nations, we need these systems without which anyone can do anything and this is no longer an option. This is not the 8th century in which you can just raid other people when you don’t have enough in your own land. The world has evolved and it has become this.
 
3b) Russia is what is left from the former Soviet Union (which was a super power). Resisting it means a great amount of loss of human lives. No one in our time can afford that. That’s why NATO countries are sending their newest equipment among their older obsolete weapons because otherwise there will be a long war. More Russians will die and Russia will become an even more unstable country. And we don’t want that. Which is why I also believe their nuclear weapons must be taken from them. The world cannot afford Russia to have weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan / India = Yes. Maybe. Russia = no more, Iran = definitely not. That’s how I see it.
3c) The republicans are just a more big corporations / greater liberalism loving political movement in America (correct me if I wrong). But they are not insane. Trump was insane and trump seems to be losing his grip on the Republican Party and I hope he doesn’t ever regain that power because the result would be some sort of imbalance in a two party model democracy. That’s my point of view.
 
China and Russia are close allies. + if you let Russia take Ukraine not only Putin will keep advancing into place like Poland (by backing populist parties across Europe and even destabilizing places like Italy), but China will feel free to take Taiwan by force and extending its influence into countries as far as Myanmar and West Africa.
 
But China is still a serious player in this. It’s still a serious state with serious alliances (like Gulf States + Saudi Arabia) which has no megalomaniac fantasies (for now) and seems to want to be a cooperative economic power more than a world-dominating super-monster.
 
So as I told you before: there is no “western” media. There is a lot of independent Russian speaking media outlets too. So don’t try to be “the smartest” try to be well informed about issues. That’s how I would do it

[The Grand Nudger]

More nonsense. Russia doesn't have complete air superiority, russia is terrified of sending it's planes in for the same reason that the a10 would be in trouble. Ukraine has the same air defenses that russia does - plus western kit (now) as well. This is why the human wave attacks don't have close air support.

They lob missiles in from the outside. They got tired of losing jets like they got tired of losing ships. 257 confirmed losses, 73 of which were captured. 281 helicopters, too. In your zeal to bullshit yourself and other people about russias competence, you missed a really good nut line. The war in ukraine might show that NATO (and the US's) massive fleet of aircraft are not instrumental to or decisive in a modern near-peer engagement.

[The Grand Nudger]

Soledar is strategically important to Prigozhins bank account.  He'll have to round up some pows and stolen kids to work the salt mines, but that shouldn't be a problem.  Russia intends to build a bunch of labor camps and penal colonies in the occupied areas.

That’s a very good point too. In West Africa they are convincing local dictators to tell European states to leave the area. Than they come in to “support” local governments in their fight against some terror groups. And their payment is usually in the form of local resources especially mining resources. This is called “predatory strategies” and I am surprised to hear that the US waited this long to add them to their lists of terror organizations.    
 
Wagner is clearly destabilizing many parts of Africa and they do this for the predation of some natural resources. + I increasingly believe that they are an autonomous force in Russia. I think that Putin is answering to them more than them answering to Putin. So “What a mess!” I remember the final days of the USSR in the late 80’s. What a mess! Really.

I'm not surprised at all.  For whatever reason, our nuts wanted to do bidness with russia, and theyre white..so, ofc they don't get fast tracked to our list of filthy brown poors with guns.  As for Wagner, they're not autonomous - but Prigozhin has been showing his ass the entire conflict.  Complaining about the russian mod, bullshitting about their own "victories"....in comparison.  The smart money is that this is a way for Prigozhin to consolidate more power, and in the process offer The Great Man an out.  It wasn't that he was a dummy with a bad idea, his generals (all) failed him. That's crucial to any regime change notions - because whoever replaces putin, if he does end up replaced, isn't going to run on the idea of undoing what putin has done - but doing it more, shittier, and more brutally.

As for russia and china being close allies - not in the least. China delayed russias invasion for it's own benefit, and is currently raking them over the coals - like a handful of other countries, laundering their products to evade sanctions at bargain basement prices.

[Belacqua]

Leonardo17Think of Libya for instance.

You mean the country that had the highest standard of living in Northern Africa until the US had its leader killed, throwing the whole country into chaos? Hillary was proud of that one. Millions of people suffered. 

So as civilized nations, we need these systems without which anyone can do anything and this is no longer an option. This is not the 8th century in which you can just raid other people when you don’t have enough in your own land. The world has evolved and it has become this.

But the US is currently stealing wheat and oil from Syria. Britain has stolen billions in gold from Venezuela. The US regularly sponsors coups in countries from which it wants to take resources. Elon Musk has announced that we can make a coup in any country we want, because he wants the lithium. 

It is very much possible to raid other people and take stuff. It happens constantly. 

After the US pulled out of Afghanistan Biden stole billions of their money, and gave half of it to people affected by the 9-11 attacks -- even though the people of Afghanistan had nothing to do with 9-11. That's theft. 

 Trump was insane and trump seems to be losing his grip on the Republican Party and I hope he doesn’t ever regain that power because the result would be some sort of imbalance in a two party model democracy. That’s my point of view.

Trump was insane? He certainly made crazy Tweets. But Biden has continued almost all of his policies. 

And let's remember that everything they said about Trump's connections with Russia, the "kompromat," the piss tape, the Russian interference that cost Hillary the election -- all of that was lies. They lied and blamed Russia as a way to control the media. That's been proven.

 if you let Russia take Ukraine not only Putin will keep advancing into place like Poland

How do you know this? 

 
So as I told you before: there is no “western” media. There is a lot of independent Russian speaking media outlets too. So don’t try to be “the smartest” try to be well informed about issues. That’s how I would do it

Corporate media in the anglophone world are obedient spokesmen for the US military/industrial complex. It cannot be trusted. 

You are right that other countries have propagandistic media also. But China's propaganda ministry is no doubt jealous of the anglophone media, who parrot the government line with far less coercion involved. The government can lie again and again, and the obedient readers will believe them. 

Tell the warmongers not to be the "smartest" please. In every war that comes along, the government lies to them, and they believe it every time.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The German Tanks will arrive within weeks (the training time is shorter and it uses diesel, not jet fuel[...]

Goddamn, people. Read!

The engine can use a variety of fuels, including jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and marine diesel.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_AGT1500

The AGT 1500 turbine engine has five primary fuels: diesel fuels 1, 2, and arctic grade, and jet propellant fuels 4 and 5. In case of an emergency, the engine is also capable of using combat gasoline and marine diesel.

https://militaryleak.com/2019/01/18/hone...00-engine/

Soledar was a minor victory that cost the Russians huge amounts of troops and equipment and months of fighting. Proof Russia can't fight because if they could they would have won weeks ago and this imaginary encirclement Russia simps keep bleating about isn't going to happen. It's amazing Russia can lose battle after battle and the simps will keep saying they aren't losing yet they win one minor victory and they act like it means something...

As of today, satellite imagery shows that Russians are digging trenches in occupied territories. It looks like the new Russian offensive which will start from Bakhmut or from Belarus is not really going to happen. I think they know what’s coming although they are saying that modern tanks are not going to change anything. Another interesting fact: The size and capacities of the Russian army seems to have been overestimated since the Soviet Era. Russians are turning to relic tanks from the 1960’s which belong to museums or should be in the possession of some rich collectors for their war in Ukraine.
 
So for all these reasons, I think there could be some regime change with a more logical approach to everything in the coming months. (hopefully)

I wouldn't take digging in as a sign that they won't renew attacks. They could well be waiting for the ground to freeze over to provide mobility, and digging in until that occurs, or they may be trying to economize forces on one front in order to provide for a larger offensive elsewhere; or a combination of both.

[Thumpalumpacus]

From what I read there are currently no runways in Ukraine capable of handling an F-16, so that will take time also.

This is incorrect. My USAF base hosted the 301st TFW, which flew F-16s the last two years I was there. With a combat load they can take off in 5000'. Ukraine has, according to Wiki, 48 airports/air bases with at least one paved runway of a minimum 2000 meters length. That oesn't, of course, count the ones the Russians have destroyed in their invasion, but I know the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying missions with MiG-29s, which have similar takeoff rolls.

So yeah, this is tommyrot. Would you link the sources you're reading? I'd like to see what else they've gotten wrong that you're lapping up and then regurgitating here.

 

(Since Russia has complete air superiority at present they can bomb the runways.)

This too is incorrect. Ukrainian airspace is contested, and neither side has air superiority, which is defined by the Air University thus:

Air Superiority is that degree of control of the air by one force that permits the conduct of its
operations at a given time and place without prohibitive interference from air and missile
threats.

o Historically, air superiority has proven to be a prerequisite to success for an
operation/campaign

o Prevents enemy air and missile threats from interfering with operations of friendly air,
land, maritime, space, and special operations forces, thus facilitating freedom of action
and movement.

https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/d...113839-373