Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

As much as I'd like to agree with you, I think there's another human wave or two coming. News has been, on the backburner, about conscripts training in Belorus. I don't think that will get much Russian steamrolling going on, but all the same UAF frontline troops will have to fight them off.

I suspect that both sides are piecemealing forces into the Bakhmut region in order to build up reserves for planned offensives, and it's a race to see who feels the jump-off point first -- and do they go too soon or too late?

At this stage, after the clear Ukrainian victories in the autumn, it looks to me like both sides are trying to angle for advantage. The Ukrainians have to race against large, untrained forces assaulting them, and the Russians have to race against inflowing supplies of armor and ammo.

I think the leadership, both theater and small-unit, will make the difference, and I think the Ukrainians have the advantage in both aspects. But both sides are tired and husbanding units, is my sense, for what that's worth.

All excellent points. But I just don't think the Russians have it in them. I'm sure they will take what forces they can muster and launch an attack but I don't think it will be a large-scale offensive nor do I think the Russians have the patience to wait for the recruits I honestly think Putin is going to try and use the propaganda victory of Soledar for a push soon because he knows he's also running the clock of the goodwill he's gotten at home over it and doesn't want it fading too quickly. This fits his pattern of short-term political gain even if it costs him in the long run military losses after all he has plenty of generals he can scapegoat for his failures. But those are just my thoughts.

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think that with his putting MoD on the hook they'll wait a little until the troops training in Belorus can be moved into reserve for a punch. They won't launch a large-scale assault until the have the bullet-catchers ready for it. I do think defeat awaits him on the other end simply because the Ukrainians are more motivated and seem to have better leadership, especially on the small-unit level, which is really important.

That being said, being overwhelmed by a mass of bodies has happened before and can happen here.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I suspect that both sides are piecemealing forces into the Bakhmut region in order to build up reserves for planned offensives

Absolutely, it's a cauldron.

They don't need to win, they only need to hold the nose. So long as the riposte comes off in time, of course.

[The Grand Nudger]

I think that...if it was going to happen...it already would have happened. @ mass of bodies

[Deesse23]

Biden is not sending F-16’s for now. But Poland, the Netherlands, France + other East European countries have agreed to send F-16’s with the condition of not attacking Russian targets in Russia (France).

France doesn't operate F-16s in front-line duties. They may have a couple for aggressor training, but none in active-duty squadrons.

Poland and Netherlands will await American approval, which as you note doesn't seem forthcoming. But then again, we also refused to provide M-1s, until we didn't. Our American government needs to stop shilly-shallying about this stuff.

Also, send some brrt-brrt.

How about some BAM, BAM, BAM?

[Leonardo17]

France doesn't operate F-16s in front-line duties. They may have a couple for aggressor training, but none in active-duty squadrons.

Poland and Netherlands will await American approval, which as you note doesn't seem forthcoming. But then again, we also refused to provide M-1s, until we didn't. Our American government needs to stop shilly-shallying about this stuff.

Also, send some brrt-brrt.

France is sending Rafales + Mirage fighter jets. They will start training Ukrainian Pilots on French fighter jets. As far as I know these are F-22 / SU-57 level very advanced fighter jets.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-c...illot-war/
 
“In January, the Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister  said Amsterdam would examine a request for F-16 fighters with “an open mind,” adding that there were “no taboos” in terms of military support.”
 
And I’ve heard that many European countries will follow suit too. Especially countries like Poland who have suffered a lot from Russian oppression in the past.
 
And there are talks about Gripen Jets who are also Raffales-like next generation airplanes.
 
The only problem for the Ukrainian army now seems to be cohesion and logistics. So they will need wester support on that too. This has really become a mixed Italian Pizza like army in terms of equipment. But it’s better than nothing. And the step after that is apparently a military coup on Putin and peace negotiations with a more rational Russian leader.
 
On the issue I was mentioning in my previous posts:



https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-gets-...00106.html


Since the Maidan Revolution in 2014 Ukraine’s corruption index has advanced from 26 to 33 (Gaining 7 points means there is less corruption).
 
So again: Democratic governance rather than dictatorial or populist government means better corruption index and better economic health for different countries.

[Leonardo17]

Frankly, i don't think Russia has the time to build up its forces again for another offensive. I think they have overextended themselves trying to take Soledar but they can't seem like they aren't overextended due to the loss of face that would be considering the huge losses they took capturing it.

As much as I'd like to agree with you, I think there's another human wave or two coming. News has been, on the backburner, about conscripts training in Belorus. I don't think that will get much Russian steamrolling going on, but all the same UAF frontline troops will have to fight them off.

I suspect that both sides are piecemealing forces into the Bakhmut region in order to build up reserves for planned offensives, and it's a race to see who feels the jump-off point first -- and do they go too soon or too late?

At this stage, after the clear Ukrainian victories in the autumn, it looks to me like both sides are trying to angle for advantage. The Ukrainians have to race against large, untrained forces assaulting them, and the Russians have to race against inflowing supplies of armor and ammo.

I think the leadership, both theater and small-unit, will make the difference, and I think the Ukrainians have the advantage in both aspects. But both sides are tired and husbanding units, is my sense, for what that's worth. I think the Russians will launch poorly-trained mass waves trying to get ahead of the recent decision to supply about an armored division's worth of tanks.

The Russians still have whatever is left from the Soviet-Union. So they are still a great adversary. But I still don’t see why they wouldn’t just sit down and negotiate

[The Grand Nudger]

They don't. They don't have their post war soviet stocks anymore, because they tried to use that against ukraine.....

...it didn't work....

Glory to the heroes, and all that.

[Belacqua]

The Russians still have whatever is left from the Soviet-Union. So they are still a great adversary. But I still don’t see why they wouldn’t just sit down and negotiate

Russia has enormous industrial capacity. They produce more tanks than any other country. They are NOT just using up old Soviet stocks. That's why they are not begging other countries for weapons, unlike some people we could mention.

Since Putin announced very limited goals when things got going last year, there is every reason to think that Russia would negotiate for these goals. Ukraine out of NATO, safety for the Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. If the regions that were added to Ukraine by Lenin in 1922 were declared autonomous, with international peacekeepers and a long-term plan for self-determination, that would achieve the stated goals. 

But there seems to be a slight change in the script that we're supposed to believe. Today the Washington Post has a column suggesting that a negotiated settlement with Russia would be a good idea. And Tucker Carlson (who is often horrible, but who is one of the most-watched people on TV) has acknowledged that the US was almost certainly involved in blowing up the Nordstream pipeline. 

And the Associated Press has actually admitted that things are not going well for the Ukrainian army, which is losing its "best troops" in Bakhmut. This is a change from the constant positive narrative. Of course it helps to justify the desires of the escalationists, but it also lets people know that Russia is not the only one taking losses.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrain...bbd62efe91

As of now of course the warmonger/escalationists are dominant, but these are encouraging signs. If the corporate media has begun to hint that something other than WWIII is possible, it may prepare people for some kind of sane outcome. 

Keep an eye on the people who obediently parrot the military/industrial complex party line. When they start to change their tune (and conveniently forget what they said before, as they frequently do) then sanity may return.

[Belacqua]

Good history lesson here for the warmongers to ignore.

https://medium.com/@benjamin.abelow/west...402a67f44e

Australian mercenary describing how the Ukrainian army is outmatched, for the warmongers to ignore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4spaBZR0LY

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Russians still have whatever is left from the Soviet-Union. So they are still a great adversary. But I still don’t see why they wouldn’t just sit down and negotiate

Russia has enormous industrial capacity. They produce more tanks than any other country. They are NOT just using up old Soviet stocks. That's why they are not begging other countries for weapons, unlike some people we could mention.

lol, once more, a little fact-checking:

“It is obvious that Russia's army is in catastrophically short supply of almost all types of equipment,” an employee for Rostec, a state-owned defense conglomerate, says. “This is why the government orders the factories all over the country receive are so urgent. It seems as if the new priority now is all about quantity, not quality. In simpler words, it's unimportant which tanks are being sent to the frontlines: the newest T-90M models or the recommissioned T-62 ones.”

[...]

“Everyone was unprepared for a war. Launching any sort of production requires time. First and foremost, all suppliers, selectors and allied manufacturers should be dealt with,” the Rostec employee says. “Producing tanks requires metal, guns, engines, electronics, communication devices and all sorts of other complex mechanisms and integral units. All those things were purchased based on the actual contracts and cannot be acquired in a snap of a finger. There were no stocks, too; we have a lean manufacturing policy.

[...]

Uralvagonzavod used to deliver tanks in dozens but handing in a batch of 5 or 10 tanks to the army is somewhat common these days. The factory is now focused on producing T-72B3M tanks, although a set of modern T-90M appeared on the Internet recently . Ukraine's servicemen have already captured some of those. It's difficult to make up a worse marketing campaign than the newest Russian tanks getting put out of action using old rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles.

Russia's Defense Ministry might be in possession of up to eight thousand tanks of different models, from T-62 to T-80, preserved in storage, as per Volya, a Telegram channel. Volya tried to figure out how many tanks are in Russia's use, and found out that up to 90% of the depreserved vehicles require mandatory modernisation. According to the channel's calculations, Russia's tank industry is currently capable of producing up to 250 new vehicles and modernising up to 600 old ones each year.

That's only going to get tougher as the sanctions bite deeper ... and I'd be surprised if a smilar set of circumstances doesn't obtain in the aviation industry. Reduced to replicating forty-year-old designs at a pace too slow to replace losses is no way to fight a war, but if you[re happy with their efforts, bravo. I'd suggest you broaden your readngs.